Brewers Will Likely Clinch the First Division of 2024

The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers are the perfect reminder that baseball is a wildly unpredictable sport.

This past offseason wasn’t kind to the Brewers, as their organization retooled all the way from its major league roster to the upper-levels of their front office.

The list of turnover was significant: they lost their long-time key executive David Stearns to the New York Mets; Craig Counsell – the most winning manager in Brewers history – shockingly left to become the next manager of the division rival Chicago Cubs; they traded away their Cy Young-winning pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles; long-time co-ace Brandon Woodruff was set to miss the entirety of the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery; and All-Star closer Devin Williams was slotted to miss the first half of the season with fractures in his lower back.

Frankly, the list of reasons to fade this team heading into Opening Day was extensive. It felt as if every other team in the National League Central was on the rise and bound for a step forward from 2023, while the Brewers were headed in the opposite direction, destined for a rebuild.

Flash forward to the middle of August, and Milwaukee has completely bucked that narrative. Against all odds, their winnings ways continue to persevere in 2024.

The Brewers have not trailed in the NL Central since April 30, and they have had sole possession of the division lead since May 9. Moreover, since July 14, no team has gotten within 4.5 games of them at the top of the standings. Their division lead now sits at a season-high 11.5 games, which is the largest among any division in baseball by four games.

Heading into Opening Day, who could have predicted that the Brewers would be sitting 21 games over .500 with nearly a month of baseball left to play? How likely was it that the Crew would hold the largest run differential in the National League at +107 after the first 125 games of the season? Who would have thought that they’d be within one game of the top seed in the entire National League nearing September?

I’d venture to guess not many outside of Milwaukee’s clubhouse had the confidence and foresight to predict what this team was capable of accomplishing during the 2024 season. While there is plenty of baseball left to be played, the Brewers deserve their flowers for being one of, if not the most impressive story of the 2024 season.

Again, baseball is a wildly unpredictable sport.

Milwaukee’s NL Central Dominance

It’s fascinating to see just how much the Brewers have outperformed their preseason expectations to this point in the season.

For example, take FanGraphs’ 2024 ZiPS projections. Prior to the start of the season, the projection model had them slotted to end the season finishing fourth in the division with a record of 78-84. The model gave them a 27.3% shot at the postseason, and a 14.7% chance to win the division. Given the drastic turnover the Brewers faced across their entire organization, it’s reasonable to see why the model had them taking a step back after such a successful 2023 season.

However, with just over a month to play in the regular season, the Brewers have defied those odds. FanGraphs currently gives Milwaukee a 99.4% chance to make the postseason, a 99.1% chance to win the division, and a 33.3% chance at clinching a bye.

Likewise, BetMGM’s NL Central projections shared a similar sentiment for the Brewers, as their win total was set at 76.5 wins heading into the season. Relatedly, their odds to win the division hovered around +750 leading up to Opening Day.

Now, the Brewers have a chance to surpass that win total before the calendar turns to September, and their current odds to win the NL Central sit at -10000, according to BetMGM.

The Brewers deserve an enormous amount of credit for what they’ve been able to accomplish this season. Not only were they considered to be a long shot to make the postseason back in March, but it’s looking as if they’ll be the first team to clinch their division this season, and that is a testament to how successful of a year it has been in Milwaukee.

As good teams tend to do, the Brewers have capitalized on being in a weak division this season.

The NL Central has been one of, if not the worst division in baseball to this point, as it is the only division in all of baseball with just one team above .500.

While the rest of the division has underachieved this season, the Brewers have been excellent at putting constant pressure on their division opponents to build a hefty cushion in the standings.

The tables below highlight how each of the teams in the NL Central have performed against their own division in 2024. The first table represents the offensive metrics against the rest of the NL Central, while the second table reflects the performance of the team’s pitching staff against the other four teams in the division thus far.

It’s clear the Brewers have been the most well-rounded team of the bunch, and it’s certainly reflected in the division standings.

The Brewers have been excellent in their intradivision play this season, and their ability to elevate their play against their division opponents has played a necessary role in them sitting atop the Central with baseball’s most commanding division lead.

In intradivision play, the Brewers are hitting for the highest average, getting on base at the highest rate, near the top in slugging percentage, and swiping the most bases when compared to the rest of the division.

It’s an offense that has been consistent and balanced, and their ability to manufacture runs in so many different ways is a key aspect of their success.

Moreover, their pitching staff has dominated the rest of the division as well. Despite a lack of household names, Milwaukee’s starting rotation is pitching to a 3.20 ERA with an opponent batting average of .226 against their division, which are both the lowest marks in the NL Central.

More specifically, it’s been the stellar performance from Milwaukee’s bullpen that has separated them from the rest of the division.

Against the NL Central, their relievers are pitching to a 2.75 ERA, which is the lowest in the division by a wide margin, while allowing an opponent batting average of just .203, which is nearly 20 points better than the next best mark.

What’s more, Milwaukee’s dominance over the NL Central is something that extends beyond this season too. Last year, the Brewers won the division by nine games, and they ended with the best intradivision record in the NL Central at 33-19. Dating back to Opening Day of 2023, the Brewers have a record of 58-33 against their division opponents.

For comparison, the results are substantially worse for the rest of the division. In intradivision play over the past two seasons, the Cubs are 47-48; the Pirates are 42-42; the Reds are 39-48; and the Cardinals are 38-53.

It’s been Milwaukee’s division as of late, and now they have a chance to win back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1982, when they were a part of the AL East. Likewise, the Brewers are on pace to win 90 or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1979.

Final Thoughts

Not only are the Brewers in a position to be the first team to clinch their division in 2024, but securing a first-round by in the postseason is also in play. As a reminder, the top two division winners get a bye to the Division Series, while the third division winner will have to play in the Wild Card Series.

Heading into play on August 21, the Brewers are one game back from a bye as they battle with the Philadelphia Phillies (74-52) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52) at the top of the National League standings.

The Dodgers took the regular season series against the Brewers four games to three, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker in the event that they end with the same record and each win their respective divisions. The Brewers will need to finish with a better record than the Dodgers in order to surpass them in the standings.

It gets more interesting with the Phillies, however, and this is where the Brewers’ strong intradivision record could come into play.

The Phillies are 3-0 against the Brewers this year, but the two teams will face off three more times in September. If the Brewers and the Phillies end the year with the same regular season record and are tied in the head-to-head record, the tiebreaker would then go to the better intradivision record. The Brewers currently have the advantage in that department, albeit with a significant amount of baseball left to be played.

So much can change between now and the end of the regular season, but every game matters at this point in the season, especially in the context of a postseason race. With under 40 games left to play, the Brewers will attempt to ride their momentum from the regular season into October, hoping it can translate to better postseason results.