What Can We Learn From the Brewers’ ZiPS Projections for 2025?

For the most part, the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers will look a lot like they did a season ago, with the obvious exception of a select few stars.

Unsurprisingly, the subtractions of Willy Adames and Devin Williams sting a bit when it comes to their overall projections heading into 2025. But the rest of their roster remains largely intact from the team that won 93 games last season.

The Brewers have a recent history of outperforming their preseason expectations. They’re an organization that tends to sell off their top assets in order to improve other parts of the roster, and that philosophy makes predicting their outcomes rather difficult.

One projection model that fans can use to gauge expectations for the upcoming season is ZiPS.

As a summary for those who may be unfamiliar, ZiPS is a player projection system created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, who has spent the past two decades developing the model. Here is Major League Baseball’s summary of how the system works:

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

Szymborski released Milwaukee’s 2025 projections back in January, and there is plenty to unpack.

ZiPS is somewhat skeptical of Milwaukee repeating their level of success from the past two seasons this coming year, but the projection model thinks they can still be a competitive ball club and fight for a third consecutive division crown.

Brewers ZiPS: Position Players

Milwaukee might not have the most awe-inspiring group of position players, but they have a good lineup with a high offensive floor heading into 2025.

As mentioned, losing Willy Adames and his 32 home runs and 112 RBIs from 2024 hurts, especially when the team hasn’t done a whole lot to address the power sap. In turn, it’s no surprise to see ZiPS project a step back for them as an overall unit in 2025.

But the Brewers have plenty of talent to help pick up the slack. Their batting order features a nice blend star power and young players still coming into their own at the big league level.

• The ascension will continue for William Contreras – ZiPS was quite high on Contreras heading into 2024, and his projections are even better one year later.
  
  The system has him finishing 17th overall in MLB and first among NL catchers in fWAR at 4.6. He’s been the best offensive catcher in baseball over the past two seasons, and ZiPS believes that will continue this coming year.
  
  He’s projected to finish first among catchers in MLB in wRC+ (124) and OPS (.803) and will continue to be the heart and soul of this Brewers offense in 2025.

• Should expectations be tempered for Jackson Chourio? – Chourio was a budding superstar from June onward last season, but ZiPS believes expectations should be tempered in his age-21 season.
  
  Chourio ended his rookie year with an fWAR of 3.9 and a 117 wRC+, but the model expects slight regression in both the on-base and power departments.
  
  It’s also expecting a slight step back in his overall defensive value. ZiPS has him slotted for an fWAR of 2.8 and a wRC+ of 108. Those are fine projections, but those outcomes would be very disappointing for Chourio given his elevated expectations for 2025.

• ZiPS believes in a modest bounce back for Rhys Hoskins – The 2024 season was not a good one for Hoskins, but ZiPS thinks better days could be ahead in 2025.
  
  The projections don’t have him returning to his Phillies form, but they envision a slight step forward across the board offensively. He’s projected to lead the ball club in homers (23) and finish third among NL first basemen in isolated power (.209).
  
  The Brewers will need him to out perform his run production projections however, as he’s only slotted for 70 RBIs. That would be a career low (for a full season) and a step back from 2024.

• The third base position could be problematic – If Joey Ortiz shifts over to shortstop, which is expected, then the Brewers have a handful of below average internal options to fill in at the hot corner.
  
  The leading candidates include Andruw Monasterio, Vinny Capra, Oliver Dunn, and Caleb Durbin- none of which have very inspiring projections. Durbin has the highest projected wRC+ at 93, and none of those options have a projected OPS above .685. Meaning, ZiPS believes the position could be a hole in Milwaukee’s lineup if they don’t address the position externally.

• More of the same for the Brewers’ young core? – ZiPS isn’t overly optimistic on Milwaukee’s young core taking a leap forward this coming season. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang are all projected for similar offensive metrics and WAR totals from what we saw a season ago.
  
  The system is most optimistic on Frelick taking the biggest step forward with career-high projections in wRC+ (100), fWAR (2.3), and OPS (.712). The Brewers will need someone from this group to smash their ZiPS projections in order for this offense to keep on track in 2025.

Brewers ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

Despite the lack of household names, Milwaukee’s starting rotation outperformed expectations last season. Heading into 2025, there’s reason to believe their rotation is in an even better spot now than it was at this point a year ago.

Two key reinforcements to the rotation help their overall projections, which we’ll dive into momentarily, and it feels as if both the floor and ceiling of their starting rotation is higher than it was heading into 2024.

• A seamless transition for Nestor Cortes – Acquired in the Devin Williams trade, Cortes is projected to be one of Milwaukee’s most valuable arms. He’s projected for the highest fWAR on the pitching staff at 2.7 (30th-best fWAR projected among starters in MLB), and among Brewers starters, Cortes is projected for the second-best ERA (3.54) and FIP (3.68).
  
  Moreover, those ERA and FIP projections would be his best marks since his lone All-Star campaign back in 2022.

• ZiPS is optimistic about the return of Brandon Woodruff – There’s no telling how much of Woodruff we’ll see in 2024 (ZiPS is projecting just 14 starts for 81 innings), but the system has him slotted for the best ERA (3.44) and FIP (3.64) on the staff.
  
  ZiPS believes he can return to being an elite strikeout artist, as they have him penciled in for 10.33 K/9 and the 10th-best projected K-BB% among MLB starters at 20.8%.

• Who will claim the No. 5 role? – The No. 5 spot in the rotation remains up for grabs with Woodruff expected to miss the start of the season. ZiPS projects a clear-cut top four of Freddy Peralta (160.1 IP, 3.76 ERA), Aaron Civale (136.3 IP, 4.28 ERA), Tobias Myers (134.1, 4.02 ERA), and Nestor Cortes. But beyond those names, it’s unclear who will seize the final spot.
  
  Top candidates include DL Hall and Aaron Ashby, but ZiPS isn’t particularly high on either of those options. Hall’s projections (4.11 ERA, 4.12 FIP) are a step back from where they were a season ago.
  
  Despite Ashby turning in a 2.86 ERA and a 2.81 FIP in 28.1 innings last year (most of which as a reliever), ZiPS has him projected for a 4.19 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 2025.
  
  Neither of which have a defined role, and ZiPS expects them to be utilized more as swingmen as opposed to rotation locks.

Relief Pitchers

The Brewers have featured one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball for the past couple of seasons, and ZiPS believes that trend can continue in 2025.

They might not have the same level of top-end talent with Devin Williams no longer in the picture, but ZiPS believes they have a very deep group of capable relievers who can take a step forward in 2025. In fact, they have eight relievers with an ERA projection under 4.00, and seven of which also have a projected FIP under 4.00.

• Big things could be in store for Nick Mears – Acquired at the trade deadline last year, ZiPS believes Mears can tap into his potential in 2025. The system has him projected for the best K/9 on the staff at 11.20 and the second-best FIP in the bullpen at 3.53. The projections envision problems in the walk department, but the talent is there for Mears to emerge as the premier setup man in Milwaukee’s bullpen this coming season.

• More subpar projections for Jacob Misiorowski – Last offseason, ZiPS was very down on Misiorowski heading into the season. It’s more of the same this year, as the club’s top pitching prospect is slotted for a 4.95 ERA and a 5.22 FIP. Interestingly, his 80th-percentile outcome is a measly 0.7 fWAR and a 4.32 ERA. For a player who some view as the next elite closer option in this bullpen, ZiPS doesn’t believe that level of ceiling exists in 2025.

• A pair of talented young arms – Conversely to how ZiPS views Misiorowski, Abner Uribe and Craig Yoho have the potential to emerge as viable high-leverage relievers in 2025. They both have similar projections with a K/9 around 10.50, an ERA around 3.70, and a FIP around 3.95. What’s more, their 80th percentile outcomes are some of the best in Milwaukee’s bullpen (3.00 ERA for Yoho, 2.98 ERA for Uribe).

Brewers ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Overall, while ZiPS isn’t projecting a monster season for the Brewers, the model foresees a solid 2025 season for the Crew.

While their projected win total of approximately 86 wins would be a step back from previous seasons, it could still be enough to defend their division crown in an NL Central that remains there for the taking.

The Brewers continue to be one of the most difficult teams to project results for, but they are embracing a winning formula that led to so much success for them in 2024.

The Brewers have a strong foundation to build upon that gives them a high floor with plenty of room for growth if just a few players can take a step forward in 2025. It’s not the flashiest team in baseball, but Brewers fans have plenty to be excited about as we inch closer to Opening Day.