The Milwaukee Brewers Have Found a New Way to Win Games

Against all odds, the Milwaukee Brewers have continued their winning ways in 2024. So much so that they are on track to be the first team to clinch their division this season. Given the looming skepticism that surrounded the Brewers heading into Opening Day, their success this season cannot be highlighted enough.

Regular season success isn’t a foreign concept for the Brewers as of late, however. Their 564 regular season wins dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season are the sixth-most in MLB, trailing only some of baseball’s biggest powerhouses such as the Dodgers (638), Astros (602), Yankees (587), Braves (588) and Rays (577).

Yet, they’ve had to find new ways to win in 2024. Their roster looks quite a bit different this season than it has in years past. Specifically, they rebuilt their starting rotation – an area that was an integral part of their success in recent seasons – and their offense has elevated their performance despite sporting one of their youngest lineups in franchise history.

The average age of Milwaukee’s hitters this season is 26.4 years old, which is the second-youngest average batter’s age in franchise history and the youngest since their 1973 season (25.7 years old). They’ve leaned into their infusion of youth across the organization, but that hasn’t prevented them from winning ballgames.

Instead, the Brewers have adapted and found new ways to win. With a new manager comes perhaps a new philosophy of success, and that’s been exactly the case for the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers.

Stats taken prior to play on August 30.

Milwaukee’s New Approach to Winning

Milwaukee’s offense has been far more productive this season than it was a year ago. Their wRC+ jumped from 92 in 2023 to 106 this season, their OPS is up 31 points, and they’re scoring 4.82 runs per game this year, which is a noticeable bump from a season ago.

Across the board, the Brewers’ offense has been more consistent and efficient. So, what’s changed for the Crew to propel this offense forward? Let’s see how they’ve been able to maintain their winning ways in 2024.

Far More Activity on the Base Paths

From the moment spring training began, it was clear that the Brewers wanted to be more active on the base paths in 2024. They’ve executed on that plan thus far, and it’s had an enormous impact on the rest of their offense.

As a team, the Brewers have the fastest average sprint speed in Major League Baseball at 28.2 feet per second, according to Baseball Savant. Having that amount of speed littered throughout the lineup is certainly a massive perk, and the Brewers have used that speed to put pressure on their opponents.

The Brewers also lead MLB in bolts with 203. Per MLB, a bolt is a run where the sprint speed of the runner is at least 30 feet per second. For reference, the Brewers had an average sprint speed of 27.4 feet per second in 2023, which was 15th in MLB, to go with just 101 bolts. Not only did they get faster in 2024, but they’ve managed to use that speed to their advantage.

In 2023, the Brewers stole 129 bases, which was the 11th-most in baseball and the 7th-most in the National League. This season, the Brewers have smashed that number, already racking up 167, which is the third-most in MLB.

Moreover, their steals are the seventh-most in a single season in franchise history and the most since the 2016 (181), and there are still 29 games left to play in the regular season.

The Brewers have been able to utilize their speed in other aspects of the game as well. Specifically, they have 26 triples on the year, which is already 10 more than they had in all of 2023. While it doesn’t entirely explain the massive increase in three-base hits, Milwaukee’s quickness and revamped approach on the bases likely explains part of that significant jump.

Whether it’s turning a single into a double, or extending a double into a triple, the Brewers make their presence felt on the base paths.

Even further, it appears as if that same base running mindset has played a huge role in the Brewers’ substantial reduction in double play ground balls this season.

Last season, the Brewers ground into a total of 144 double plays. That was the second-most in all of baseball. This year, the Brewers have ground into just 85 double plays in 133 games. For reference, in 2023, the Brewers ground into 108 double plays through their first 131 games. They’re averaging .63 ground into double plays per game in 2024, as opposed to .89 per game a season ago.

The significance of that improvement cannot be overstated. Double play balls are inning enders and momentum killers, and their ability to slash into that concerning total from a season ago has done wonders for their offensive consistency and production.

Now, there are a lot of factors that play into double plays, such a pitcher’s skillset, the ability of the opposing defense, or even the batter’s ground ball tendencies.

However, when looking at what the Brewers can control in that formula to reduce double play balls, Milwaukee’s ground ball rates actually haven’t changed much from a season ago.

As a team, their average launch angle is actually down from 2023 (11.5 degrees in 2024, 11.7 degrees in 2023), and the club actually has a higher ground ball rate this season (45.6%) than last season (45.3%), per Baseball Savant.

What’s more, with runners on base, Milwaukee is sporting a 45.8% ground ball rate this season, which is 0.9% increase from 2023. Therefore, it’s not as if they’ve drastically cut down on their ground ball rate and started elevating the ball more. In reality, they’ve done just the opposite.

Instead, moving the runner off of first base, whether that be in the form of a steal or attempting to stretch a single into a double, has had such a tangible impact on Milwaukee’s offense. Eliminating the double play ball possibility is yet another example of how the Brewers have used their speed to create a competitive advantage.

Slight Improvement in Power and a Much Improved Approach

While Milwaukee’s base running has been the most noticeable improvement to their winning formula this season, it isn’t the only adjustment they’ve made. The Brewers have taken a slight step forward in several different areas, and the collection of those improvements has yielded major results for this offense.

Milwaukee’s inability to slug last season was a major shortcoming of their offense. A team needs to slug to make it through the postseason, and their offense wasn’t capable of putting up those gaudy power numbers when they needed it the most.

Interestingly enough, while the Brewers have improved their power numbers to some degree in 2024, they haven’t made as big of an adjustment in the power department as one might think when seeing such a drastic turnaround in run production from a season ago.

In 2023, the Brewers ended the year with a slugging percentage of .385 and an isolated power (ISO) of .146, which were both the second-worst marks in the National League.

This season, the Brewers upped their slugging percentage to .404 and their ISO to .151. It’s been a necessary improvement, but those marks still rank 7th and 11th in the National League, respectively. They have 142 homers in 133 games this season, which is only two more than they had through their first 131 games in 2023.

Likewise, the team’s quality of contact is very similar to where it was a season ago. They’ve seen a slight boost in average exit velocity (88.6 mph in 2024, 88.3 mph in 2023) and hard-hit rate (38.9% in 2024, 37.8% in 2023), but their overall barrel rate has dropped from 7.4% last season to 7.1% this year.

While the slight step forward in the power department is part of the formula, it’s the combination of their enhanced power paired with their boosted on-base numbers that has helped propel this offense forward. And when looking at the ladder, their enhanced ability to get on base stems from their team-wide disciplined approach.

As a team, the Brewers are very selective at the plate. They sport the second-lowest overall swing rate in baseball at 45.0%, and they have the lowest zone swing rate in the sport at just 63.8%. Relatedly, the Brewers are seeing the second-most pitches per plate appearance this season at 4.01.

Now, low swing rates aren’t inherently a good thing. Sometimes a team falls into a more passive approach rather than a patient one, and it can put hitters in difficult situations.

For example, the Brewers this season have the highest strikes looking percentage (29.1%) to go along with the fifth-highest strikeout looking percentage (25.9%), per Baseball Reference. It can be harmful to be too selective at the plate, and that has hurt the Brewers at times this season.

Alternatively, their patience also plays a huge role in their offensive success. Specifically, they’ve excelled at getting into hitter’s counts this season.

They’re third in MLB in the percentage of plate appearances that reach a 3-0 count (4.5%); second in the percentage of plate appearances that reach a 2-0 count (14.2%); and fourth in the percentage of plate appearances that reach a 3-1 count (9.4%).

When used in the right context, these metrics have meaning and can help paint the picture of a successful offense when paired with other aspects of a team’s approach.

The Brewers are limiting their chases this season, which lays the foundation for a strong approach. They have the second-lowest out-of-zone swing rate in baseball at 25.6%, which is a 0.9% improvement from a season ago.

More importantly, they upped their overall contact rate from 74.1% a season ago to 75.9% this season, which is the fourth-highest in the National League. Moreover, they also upped their zone contact rate by over a percent, boosting that number to 82.2% in 2024.

In turn, those improvements have translated to more consistent results.

Last year, the Brewers ranked 12th in the NL in batting average (.240) and 9th in on-base percentage (.319). In 2024, they’ve upped their batting average to .253 and their on-base percentage to .332, which rank fourth and second in the National League, respectively.

Most significantly, their wOBA went from a dreadful .309 in 2023 to a much more respectable .322 this season. They’re getting on base more often in the form of more meaningful hits, and it’s a philosophy embodied from top to bottom in the batting order.

It’s not an enormous leap in any one given area, but the combination of slight improvements across the board helps explain Milwaukee’s boosted offensive production.

Steady Pitching Bolstered by Strong Defense

Elite defense is nothing new to these Milwaukee Brewers. Last season, the Brewers led Major League Baseball in Outs Above Average (41), finished second in Defensive Runs Saved (68), and ended with the highest Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF via FanGraphs) at 31.3.

It’s been a similar story for Milwaukee this season. They’re currently fourth in MLB in OAA (27), third in DRS (66), and third in DEF (25.3). Great defense is a key aspect of Milwaukee’s success, even more than it was in 2023. While this isn’t necessarily a new way of winning in Milwaukee, their top-flight defense is essential to their winning formula.

It’s been especially important for Milwaukee’s pitching staff, as they’ve leaned upon their strong defensive unit to make plays all season long.

As a result, Milwaukee’s starting rotation has been nearly as productive this season as it was in 2023, as hard as that is to believe.

The numbers aren’t quite as good, but they’re not far off. It’s a testament to Milwaukee’s pitching development, and it speaks to just how impressive of a season it’s been for the Brewers’ rotation.

In 2023, the Brewers used just 10 different starting pitchers. This year, they’ve used 17 different starters, which is tied with the Dodgers for the most in baseball. It’s been a revolving door of faces, but the Brewers have managed to construct a stable rotation.

Aside from the pure star talent the Brewers lost in the offseason, they also had to overcome a significant amount of vacated innings from the 2023 season.

The Brewers had 469.2 innings that they needed to replace in the starting rotation, with the list headlined by Corbin Burnes (193.2 IP), Adrian Houser (106.1 IP), and Brandon Woodruff (67.0 IP).

That doesn’t even include Wade Miley, who accounted for 120.1 innings last season and threw just seven innings this season before going down with Tommy John surgery. Despite all that turnover, they have been able to overcome the enormous hurdle.

They’re not doing it with as much dominance on the mound, as their rotation is sporting their lowest K/9 since 2018, but they’ve managed success by pitching to more contact, utilizing their strong defensive group and leaning heavily upon one of the strongest and deepest bullpens in baseball to help compensate for the lack of length in the starting rotation.

Milwaukee’s starters haven’t worked deep into games this season. In fact, Milwaukee’s starters have a combined 654.1 innings pitched this season, which is the third-fewest in the National League and fourth-fewest in Major League Baseball.

Skipper Pat Murphy often protects his starters from going too deep into ballgames, occasionally to prevent a pitcher from going through the order one too many times, as a way to put his players in the best situation to succeed.

In turn, he’s leaned upon on his bullpen as much as any team in baseball to this point.

Milwaukee’s relievers have gone a total of 526.1 innings this season, which is the fourth-most in the National League. For comparison, Brewers relievers ended the 2023 season with a total of 562.2 innings of work and pitched a total of 450.1 innings at this point in the season last year.

Yet, despite that increased workload, Milwaukee’s bullpen has posted similar, if not better results from a season ago when they finished as one of the top bullpens in the entire sport.

In spite of Devin Williams missing the first four months of the season, this Brewers bullpen hasn’t missed a beat.

They have the second-best ERA and WHIP in the NL and they have the third-best opponent batting average. Additionally, their left-on-base percentage of 78.8% is nearly three percent better than the next closest team in the NL.

What’s more, in 2023, Milwaukee’s bullpen ended the year with the highest win probability added (WPA) in baseball at 11.73, and it’s been more of the same this season. They currently lead the National League in WPA at 9.79, and are on pace to once again be one of the most reliable and valuable groups in baseball.

It’s very difficult to consistently compete year-in and year-out in Major League Baseball, especially for a small market team. However, the Brewers have managed to sustain prolonged success for the better part of the past decade.

Their approach to winning may fluctuate from year to year, and they often sacrifice all-in transactions in exchange for being in the mix for the postseason seemingly each year. They’ve managed to stay on course in 2024, despite their retooling this past offseason, and they’ve been a sound and fundamental baseball team all season long.

Whether or not this newfound approach to winnings games this season can translate to better postseason results is yet to be seen, but the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers deserve an endless amount of credit for what they’ve been able to achieve this season.