Marlins Are Taking Advantage of a Seller’s Market, With More to Deal

After making the playoffs last year, the 2024 Miami Marlins are having a dreadful season. Under new President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix, the Marlins have been telegraphing their plan for the season since before it even started.

It was clearly a year where the Marlins would go back into a rebuild with former Cy Young Sandy Alcantara on the shelf rehabbing from Tommy Jogn surgery. A similar fate for young phenom Eury Perez made that decision even easier for Bendix, as the Marlins took to take advantage of their position as one of the true open for business sellers in the sport right now.

This deadline is a unique one. Thanks to the expanded playoff format, more teams can justify buying at the trade deadline and pushing for a chance to play in October. As of July 26th, FanGraphs has 18 clubs with at least a 20% chance to make the postseason.

In theory, this means that the Marlins could shop their players to over half of the league. Of course, some of these teams might not all be buying at the deadline but this is a seller’s market regardless.

The Marlins are a team in need of fresh faces on their farm. As it stands, their prospect list is incredibly top-heavy.

The Marlins farm is headlined by arms like Noble Meyer (Just Baseball’s #48 overall prospect), Thomas White (JB’s #70 overall prospect), and Max Meyer (JB’s #94 overall prospect). The Luis Arraez trade from earlier this season also netted Miami JB’s #88 overall prospect, 19-year-old OF Dillion Head.

The depth of their system proceeding those youngsters is shallow. MLB Pipeline ranked the Marlins as the second-to-worst farm system ahead of the 2024 season. Following the conclusion of the 2024 MLB Draft, Bleacher Report ranked the Marlins second to last as a system, as well.

It’s clear that the Marlins need a facelift when it comes to their youth. They likely won’t be too picky when it comes to the precise position of a prospect but they could lean towards wanting bats. Considering three of their four top prospects are pitchers, it makes sense for the Marlins to leverage their deals in order to acquire young offensive pieces.

President of Baseball Operations, Peter Bendix, got the ball rolling when he traded Luis Arraez at the start of the season and as the deadline grows near, he’s already dealt two more players.

Miami Marlins Deadline Moves So Far

Marlins Swap A.J. Puk for a Pair of Prospects from the Diamondbacks

On Thursday, July 25th, the Marlins and Diamondbacks swung a deal to exchange LHP A.J. Puk from Miami for CIF Deyvison De Los Santos and CF Andrew Pintar. De Los Santos ranked as the Snakes’ sixth overall prospect in Just Baseball’s rankings from the 2023 preseason.

Aram Leighton dove into De Los Santos’ adjustments that have led to a jump in production since these changes were made.

De Los Santos has spent the majority of the season at Triple-A for the Reno Aces. He was promoted after dominating Double-A, posting a 202 wRC+ across 38 games. He’s hit 28 homers combined at those two levels and is currently sporting a .289/.338/.588 slash line since getting promoted to Triple-A.

He’s hitting the ball harder than nearly any other player has in Triple-A this season. His batted ball data is littered with red, a great sign. The blue bubbles indicating poor swing decisions are a result of his aggressive approach that might be hard to replicate at the Major League level.

He’s an exciting power-hitting righty who will likely stick at first base. His aggressive approach has led him to success in the minors recently. For A.J. Puk, a pitcher who struggled mightily in stretches in the 2024 season, this is a quality, high-upside get for Miami.

Andrew Pintar is a 23-year-old center fielder who torched through High-A, slashing .304/.403/.516 across 59 games. His plus speed has allowed him to steal 19 bases across his 69 games at three levels of the Minor Leagues in 2024. The 2022 fifth-round pick will likely slot towards the back of Arizona’s top 30 prospects, if not, just outside of it.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. Goes to the Bronx

On July 27th, the Yankees traded C Agustin Ramirez (JB’s #11 NYY prospect), MIF Jared Serna, and INF Abrahan Ramirez in exchange for Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm Jr. has yet to reiterate the hot streak he was on in his 60 games during the 2022 season. In 241 plate appearances, Jazz posted a career-best 136 wRC+ with 14 homers and 12 stolen bases. Since an injury ended his ’22 campaign, he’s been a .249/.312/.431 hitter, good for a 103 wRC+. Coincidently, he’s also a 103 wRC+ hitter in his career to this point.

Chisholm provides the Yankees a speed/power combination and since moving to CF in 2023, he’s also added positional utility to his resumé. In addition, Jazz has matured as a hitter.

He’s making contact more than ever and has dropped his K% significantly. In doing so, he’s hitting the ball for less power but thanks to his ability to pull the ball effectively, he’s still on pace to set a career-high total in homers in 2024.

Jazz has yet to have a full breakthrough season with Miami. Despite the fact he’s under control through the 2026 season, Bendix saw a chance to get a solid return for Chisholm and move on from the young lefty.

The return coming back for the Marlins is headlined by 22-year-old catching prospect Agustin Ramirez. The catcher slashed .289/.372/.570 in Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A, where he’s spent the past 29 games.

He’s proven to have above-average power output while maintaining a strikeout rate below 20% consistently throughout his professional career. The catching position has been a weak point for the Marlins for years now, Ramirez has the potential to change that.

Jared Serna is a middle infielder who has spent the entire season at High-A where he has posted a 120 wRC+. He’s hit 13 homers and swiped 11 bags in 88 games while striking out just 15% of the time. Serna’s above-average speed and potential to be a plus defender gives him a higher floor than most prospects in High-A. Serna is 22 years old and has yet to surpass High-A, he’s also Rule 5 eligible.

Abrahan Ramirez is a 19-year-old infielder who was dominated in the DSL and at the complex. Through 49 games at the complex, the lefty is slashing .348/.447/.513 while nearly walking more than striking out.

Now that we’re caught up with what the Marlins have already done, let’s see what else they can offer competing teams.

Tanner Scott

2024 Stats: 44.2 IP / 1.21 ERA / 18 SV / 3.74 xFIP / 14.1% K-BB / 0.8 fWAR

Contract: $5.7M (FA: 2025)

Among qualified relief pitchers, Tanner Scott has the fourth-lowest ERA. Among lefty relievers, he’s posted the single lowest ERA in baseball. His 2-pitch of a fastball that sits at 97 MPH and a devastating gyro-slider has limited hitters to a .120 batting average against.

His simple, yet effective repertoire plays excellent off of his low slot release. Scott gets solid extension allowing his stuff to play up. From 2023 to 2024, his Stuff+ grades spiked from 124 to 145!

Scott would be a welcomed addition to any team in need of backend bullpen assistance. Especially clubs that have seen a lack of production from lefties. Bullpen management is paramount in the postseason. A lights-out lefty is incredibly valuable to any bullpen in October.

The Marlins were able to get a high-upside bat in De Los Santos for Puk. Scott has been much better than Puk so the Marlins should be getting a notably better package in return when they ship off Scott.

Best Fits: Yankees, Pirates, Diamondbacks*, Twins, Mets, Padres

The teams that I consider “best fits” for Scott are those that have bullpens with either overall poor-performing relievers or teams that are in need of a boost in their backend, especially when it comes to lefties.

The Diamondbacks already made their move for a lefty bullpen piece in Puk but if they still aren’t satisfied with one Marlins lefty, they could still be in the mix for Tanner Scott. After all, the lefties in the Snakes’ bullpen rank second to last in RP fWAR and ERA. They could absolutely desire an additional Southpaw for their relief corps.

MLB Trade Rumors confirmed the Diamondbacks’ interest in Scott on July 27th.

The Pirates will likely look elsewhere before their bullpen if they are buyers. Even with Aroldis Chapman, they’ve struggled to find production elsewhere from lefty relievers. A backend quartet of Bednar, Scott, Holderman, and Chapman would be dangerous in October if Pittsburgh can make it into the dance.

The Yankees seem to make the most sense. Their pen hasn’t been awful, however, they rank 19th in RP K/9. Scott could also act as the lefty closer, with Clay Holmes acting as the closer when a majority of the due-up hitters are righties.

Josh Bell

2024 Stats: 431 PA / 92 wRC+ / 13 HR / -0.4 fWAR

Contract: $16.5M (FA: 2025)

Across 450 games from 2021-2023, Bell played for four different teams and posted a 116 wRC+. For a first baseman, that’s not a great number but it is certainly more productive than his wRC+ of 92 to this point in 2024.

It feels like every season, Bell is going to be dealt at the deadline and this year will likely be no different. The switch hitter hasn’t been as productive as some of his previous seasons and he’s over half a decade removed from his 135 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR 2019 season with the Pirates. However, he could still bring solid power output to the table.

Bell already has 13 homers on the season and the ZiPS projection model believes he’ll end the season with 20. He’s been a tick better against RHP this season and throughout his career, so teams that are looking for a boost of power and have below-average numbers against righties could pick up Bell for a cheap price tag.

He signed a two-year deal with the Cleveland Guardians ahead of the 2023 season but was traded to Miami in exchange for Khalil Watson and Jean Segura on August 1st of last year. He’ll be a free agent once the 2024 season ends. Whatever team winds up trading for him will owe him under half of the $16.5M AAV on his deal for 2024, maybe less if Miami eats some of the money.

Bell is far from a “flashy” player but he’s sure to be on the move. The Marlins have no reason, at all, to let Bell walk without getting something in return for the the veteran first baseman.

Best Fits: Astros, Yankees, Pirates, Red Sox

The Astros have been in purgatory when it comes to finding someone to play first base. Houston has been in the mix for players like Isaac Paredes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., however, both of those options will be significantly pricier and the Blue Jays will almost certainly be holding onto Vlad for next season.

The Astros are the only team in baseball who have seen an OPS south of .600 from their first base position in the lineup. Jon Singleton has posted a .703 OPS since becoming the primary 1B but he has a miserable 51 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year.

The Yankees could be interested. Ben Rice has cooled down since his hot start, posting a 31 wRC+ in his last 54 plate appearances. Rice has also hit just .125 against LHP. Anthony Rizzo has yet to return from the 60-day IL with a fractured forearm. Bell could bridge the gap between Rizzo’s eventual return. Rizzo was an 82 wRC+ hitter through the first 70 games of his season.

The same first-base dilemma happening in the Bronx right now is going on in Boston, too. Triston Casas hasn’t played since April 20th. It’s been reported that Casas could begin a rehab assignment as soon as the end of the week.

Bell would be a better option than Dominic Smith or Romy Gonzalez who are currently holding down 1B in Boston. A move like this could happen if for a cheap return to Miami, especially if Boston doesn’t mind paying the entirety of what Bell is owed for the remainder of 2024.

If the Pirates are serious about making a push for the playoffs this season, I like a reunion in Pittsburgh for Bell. They’ve had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and the second-to-worst team wRC+ against RHP. However, Rowdy Tellez has been heating up as of late.

Bell to Pittsburgh was a deal I mentioned in my Pirates trade deadline piece from a few days ago. He would immediately improve their average wRC+ as a team. He also fits the Pirates’ bill as being a cheap addition, costing minimal prospects.

The landing spots for Bell are thin but as I noted earlier, moving Bell for anything is required for the Marlins at the deadline.

Trevor Rogers

2024 Stats: 105.1 IP / 4.53 ERA / 4.55 xFIP / 8.3% K-BB / 0.8 fWAR

Contract: $1.53M – ARB1 (FA: 2027)

Rogers has yet to return to his 2021 form. That season saw the lefty pitch to a 2.64 ERA (7th among SP, min. 100 IP) and accumulate 4.3 fWAR (17th among SP). Since his brilliant 2021 campaign, Rogers has posted a 4.92 ERA across 230 innings and has only been worth 1.8 fWAR. He missed nearly all of the 2023 season due to multiple injuries.

Since coming back in 2024, his ERA has sat around 4.5 and his velocity has ticked back up now that he’s healthy. Rogers is under team control until 2027. He’s never surpassed 133 innings in a single season to this point in his career.

There are plenty of teams who would happily welcome a lefty arm into their rotation to help the team get quality innings down the stretch. Rodgers might not even get the ball to start in game four of a playoff game but he could be valuable for multiple innings out of the bullpen in October.

Best Fits: Guardians, Brewers, Astros, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Mets

One of the most surprising parts of Cleveland’s dominant 2024 season is the fact that their starting pitching has been holding them back. The unit that has been their backbone for the past several years has tumbled into a rotation that ranks 24th in ERA and second to last in fWAR.

To worsen things, the Guardians have seen next to no production from lefties in their rotation. In fact, only one Southpaw has started games for Cleveland this season, Logan Allen. Allen has pitched to a 5.67 ERA in 87.1 big league innings. He’s since been sent down to Triple-A, leaving the Major League rotation void of lefties.

Barring a move for a lefty starter in free agency, the Guardians will run into the same problem next season. Rogers would be a logical solution to this issue as he will almost certainly improve the rotation the moment he arrives in Cleveland and has a few more seasons of club control after this season.

The Brewers have a similar issue to Cleveland. Their rotation has been as poor as the Guardians but Milwaukee will be looking to add arms. They already showed their desire to improve their rotation when they sent INF prospect Gregory Barrios to Tampa Bay in exchange for RHP Aaron Civale.

The Brew Crew looked to have a decent crop of lefties in their rotation. Their veteran, Wade Miley, went down with Tommy John surgery earlier this season, and young prospect Robert Gasser went under the knife for the same reason in June. DL Hall, whom they acquired from Baltimore in the Corbin Burnes trade, has been out since late April with a sprained knee. Hall has been rehabbing in Triple-A Nashville and is poised for a return soon.

Even with Hall returning to the rotation, they need another lefty. Hall has struggled in his small sample of 16.1 innings in the Major Leagues this year, pitching to a 7.71 ERA. Trevor Rogers would stabilize this rotation for now and later.

The Diamondbacks are an interesting candidate. Most wouldn’t have predicted that Arizona would be seeking lefty help in the rotation after they signed Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez ahead of the 2024 season, both of whom are LHPs.

The production they’ve received from these recently acquired Southpaws has either been terrible or simply nonexistent. Montgomery currently holds the unfortunate title of the single worst ERA among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched (6.11) and Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to take the mound in a Diamondbacks uniform in 2024.

He’s been on the IL with a shoulder injury since before Opening Day. Rodriguez and the also currently injured, Merrill Kelly, both threw in a simulated game on July 26th, as reported by Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com.

Even with those reinforcements on their way back, you can never have enough pitching depth, especially when in the midst of a fight for a playoff spot.

The Dodgers, Astros, and Mets are other candidates I’d look out for if Rodgers is to get dealt. These are all teams who have either lost arms to injury or just seen a lack of production from their starters. However, if these three teams are to add a starter, it could be one with a better profile than Rogers.

Bryan De La Cruz

2024 Stats: 444 PA / 95 wRC+ / 18 HR / 3 SB / 0.2 fWAR

Contract: $768,000 – Pre-Arb (FA: 2028)

Considering he’s yet to hit arbitration officially, it could be unlikely for Miami to move De La Cruz. If the right package falls on Peter Bendix’s desk, I think it would be wise to move on from De La Cruz, especially now.

Even though he’s posted a below-average wRC+, he’s on pace to clear his previous career-high in homers. He already has 18 on the year, just one less than his 19 bombs from 153 games in 2023. He’s striking out more than ever but he’s also barrelling the ball 11.2% of the time.

De La Cruz has also improved his swing to increase loft and pull rate. He’s pulling the ball at a career-high percentage and hitting it in the air more often than he ever has. He’s improved his swing decisions, as well. He’s being more aggressive in the zone and less aggressive out of the zone compared to last season.

All of these key parts of his game are things that potential buyers are very much aware of. The Marlins can look at this situation from two different perspectives.

They could see these adjustments and see him being a part of the competitive window, whenever that is to happen in Miami.

Bendix might also be able to swing a deal to maximize the profits of selling De La Cruz. A young outfielder with years of control who has made tangible adjustments to improve his game.

De La Cruz has experience at all three spots in the outfield but has primarily been a left fielder. His lack of range will keep him in a corner going forward but his plus arm strength would allow for him to be a solid right fielder for a team in need of one.

Best Fits: Royals, Mariners, Cardinals

The Royals are the best fit for BDLC in my opinion.

They are currently in third place in the AL Central and five and a half games back of the division-leading Cleveland Guardians but actively hold the third and final AL Wild Card spot. FanGraphs currently gives them a 53.7% chance to make the playoffs.

If the Royals are to make the playoffs, it’d be the first time Kansas City has done so since 2015, the year they beat the New York Mets in the World Series.

The Royals have been led to success by superstar SS, Bobby Witt Jr. and a starting rotation that ranks third in the league in ERA. Offensively as a whole, they’ve been towards the middle of the pack. They have a couple of positions that are holding them back.

Those positions just so happen to be both corner outfield spots.

Kansas City’s LF and RF spots both rank 27th in the league in OPS. As an outfield, the Royals have posted a mere 55 wRC+ when facing LHP, as well. De La Cruz would be an upgrade from the likes of Garrett Hampson and Drew Waters in LF and Hunter Renfroe in RF.

Renfroe is also in a walk year. De La Cruz could be the Opening Day RF for the Royals in 2025 and years to come after that if the improvements he’s made begin to show up in the output.

The Cardinals could shift some things around in their outfield in order to make room for BLDC. Currently, Michael Siani is playing centerfield most days, with Lars Nootbar, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Dylan Carlson filling the other outfield spots.

As a unit, the Cardinals’ OF rank last in wRC+ against LHP. Moving Nootbar to CF full-time would improve the offensive output of this team that is fighting for a spot in the NL Wild Card.

It looks like the Mariners already made their move for a righty outfield bat. The M’s acquired Randy Arozarena from the Rays on July 26th. If they aren’t content with just one addition in the outfield, De La Cruz could be another get for Jerry Dipoto.

Final Thoughts

The Marlins are sellers, that is for certain.

However, unlike other teams that are in a similar position in the standings as Miami, they don’t have a heaping surplus of players to move. Josh Bell and Tanner Scott should be as good as gone. They’re impending free agents. Pendix knows that this is his only chance to get any kind of true value for either of those players.

Trevor Rodgers and Bryan De La Cruz are under team control for at least the next few seasons. That makes the decision on whether or not to move on from those players a tough one.

De La Cruz and Rogers will only go if the Marlins receive a solid package. By no means should Bendix feel it necessary to trade these two players. It doesn’t mean he won’t but, De La Cruz looks to have changed some aspects of his game that truly could lead to above-average seasons going forward. Rogers is still bouncing back from his injury-plagued 2023 season. He’s proven to be capable of impressive stretches earlier in his career.

Final plan: Move Bell. Move Scott. Do not force a trade involving Rodgers or De La Cruz. Force the price up and if you get a buyer to offer you a package you’re happy with, great! If not, you have three players under club control for next season.