The Pirates Should Get Paul Skenes Help at the Trade Deadline

The Pittsburgh Pirates have positioned themselves to have one of the more interesting trade deadlines. The Bucs are currently in third place in the National League Central, just one game behind the St. Louis Cardinals but seven games back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Although FanGraphs gives them just a 17.7% chance to make the playoffs as of July 27, they are knocking on the door of the last Wild Card spot. They sit just two-and-a-half games out of the playoffs, behind the Padres (who occupy the final WC spot), the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals, who are both within striking distance.

The Pirates have played their best baseball of the season in the month of July, posting a winning percentage of 61.1% this month. If they can continue this level of play, they will force General Manager, Ben Cherrington, to play his chips at the deadline.

What makes them an interesting team to monitor as the deadline approaches is their future outlook as a team. They’re very young and poised to be great as their less-experienced players get more MLB time under their belts. Cherrington and company will likely not be dishing out their top prospects, but rather making more low-cost moves that could still pay off in a big way.

The Pirates’ core of Paul Skenes, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds is a solid start but they’ll need reinforcements to get into the playoffs and make some noise come October.

Current Strengths

Starting Pitching

The only true strength of the Pirates this season has been their starting rotation. They rank fourth in SP ERA, 11th in FIP, and 12th in fWAR.

Despite making just 12 starts to this point, Paul Skenes ranks 33rd in fWAR among starting pitchers. He’s been outright unbelievable, immediately becoming the Pirates’ ace. He started the All-Star as a rookie for the first time since Hideo Nomo did so in 1995.

Skenes has become the face of Pittsburgh in a matter of months. He’s taken the league by storm and while his career is just getting started it truly feels like any year with Paul Skenes not pitching in the playoffs is a year wasted.

Luckily, Skenes has had some help in the rotation.

RHP Jared Jones posted a 2.63 ERA through his first 7 career starts. He’s since cooled off and is currently on the IL with a strained lat. Still, Jones has established him as one of the best young starters in the game and the Pirates will be happy to have him back in early August.

Mitch Keller is on pace to have his best season in terms of ERA of his career. The righty signed a five-year extension with Pittsburgh and in the first season of his new deal, he’s posted a 3.34 ERA. His strikeouts are down and his velocity has ticked South a couple of notches but it has yet to impact his results.

Luis L. Ortiz has worked primarily out of the bullpen but mostly in multi-inning stints. As of recently, Ortiz has been starting games and through five starts he has a 1.52 ERA.

Ortiz is on a new level compared to last season. The adjustments he’s made to his release height as well as the tick-up in velocity make me think that he could give the Pirates really solid innings down the stretch.

Bailey Falter has also surpassed expectations, pitching to a 4.08 ERA in the backend of this rotation. The lefty went on the IL with a triceps injury but has since begun his rehab assignment and should be rejoining the big league rotation soon.

Current Weaknesses

The offense as a whole has been incredibly poor. They rank in the bottom five in wRC+ and fWAR on the season. The Pirates aren’t hitting for average, getting on base, and they’re not hitting for power.

The interesting thing is that they rank in the top 10 for most batted ball statistics such as barrel rate and hard hit percentage. They’re doing something right offensively, at least.

Specifically, centerfield and third base have been offensive voids. They haven’t seen much in the way of production from rightfield or catcher either. Luckily, Joey Bart has helped solve the problem at catcher. He’s posted an OPS of .769 in just over 100 plate appearances.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been so poor at the plate that the Pirates rank 29th in OPS at 3B. His defense and even his offensive upside will absolutely keep him at the hot corner. A big second half from Hayes would be incredibly valuable for the Bucs down the stretch.

Aside from Reynolds, the outfield has been miserable. A few OF bats should be at the top of the deadline wish list for Pittsburgh.

Players Potentially On Their Way Out

As I mentioned, the Pirates will have to thread the needle at this deadline. Considering they don’t currently hold a playoff spot, it’s unlikely (and unwise) to go all in at this deadline.

Although, Cherrington could see this as an opportunity to move on from players. Some of these could be rental pieces that competing teams could be interested in, others might be younger players with control who are “change of scenery” candidates.

Martin Perez

Perez is neither a young player with control nor a player who competitive teams will be interested in. The veteran lefty has been the only blemish on this elite rotation. He’s contributed a 5.20 ERA across 16 starts and 83 innings. Perez’s trade value is all but nothing considering he’s on a one-year “prove it” deal and has pitched poorly in 2024.

He signed for $8 million in the offseason, which makes it a small enough amount to be able to justifiably release the lefty and move onto a different veteran southpaw to further improve this already great crop of starters.

Moving on from Perez possibly won’t be via a trade but getting Perez out of the rotation would be an improvement.

Jack Suwinski

At one point Suwinski was an exciting power-hitting prospect. While the raw talent is still there, Suwinski has taken a sizeable step back from his 2.7 fWAR 2023 season that saw him post a 115 wRC+.

The lefty outfielder has cutback on strikeouts but in doing so he’s seen his wRC+ tank all the way down to 69. His biggest change from ’23 has been a huge increase in groundballs. His average launch angle has nearly cut in half from last year and has led to a 45.9% groundball rate.

He’s still very young and is under team control until 2029 so it might be too early for the Pirates front office to give up on a player who could be an electric part of their future.

Suwinski has spent some time in Triple-A due to his struggles in the big leagues. He’s been primarily used as a platoon with Michael A. Taylor. Suwinski has shockingly been slightly better against same-handed pitching, despite being platooned.

I see Suwinski as a player who is providing nothing offensively to this team right now. His specific struggles might be ones that could take an offseason’s worth of swing adjustments for him to get the natural loft back in his swing. Although, a team out of contention for 2024 might be interested in getting a player like Suwinski into their program. This might net the Pirates a veteran rotation piece or even a straight-up replacement.

Aroldis Chapman

As he was last season, Aroldis Chapman could find himself on the market once again. He’s a perfect rental piece for a team in need of backend bullpen help.

After starting the season with a 5.19 ERA through his first 17 innings pitched, Chapman has kicked it up a notch, pitching to a 2.66 ERA in his last 20.1 IP. He’s driven the asking price up for himself, which Pittsburgh should be grateful for.

A move involving Chapman could be a win-win situation in the short term for both parties. Although, despite their three-headed back-end of the ‘pen including Colin Holderman and David Bednar, the Bucs’ pen ranks 23rd in relief pitcher ERA. If they want to be competitive, it would make sense for them to keep their backend guys who have performed well this season.

Bednar or Holderman?

As mentioned, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Pirates will move their key bullpen pieces if they buy at the deadline. Moving Chapman makes more sense because he’s a free agent after the 2024 season.

With Holderman (free agent in 2029) and Bednar (free agent in 2027) being under control through at least the next two seasons, it makes little to no sense to get rid of them. This team has young potential that should be improving with each season. Bednar and Holderman should be a part of that plan.

Potential Targets

In my opinion, the Pirates will only move good prospects for players with at least a few years of club control. If they want to compete for a playoff spot this year, they need to improve their roster for the present and the future. That is not an easy task.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm would provide this line some much-needed pop. The Pirates’ 102 homers as a team rank 25th in the league. Jazz has had his stretches of poor play but the lefty has been off to a hot start since the All-Star Break.

Strikeouts have been a problem for Chisholm but it’s not like their current option, Suwinski, is doing much better at avoiding K’s. Chisholm also provides positional utility, available to play in center field and second base.

The Pirates rank second to last in wRC+ against RHP. Chisholm has a career 115 wRC+ against righties. Chisholm to Pittsburgh would warrant a good return going back to Miami. A package could involve Suwinski. Chisholm is under club control until 2027.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic on 93.7 The Fan confirmed that Ben Cherrington is very much in the mix of things when it comes to Chisholm.

The Pirates could go out and acquire an offensive boost at a pair of positions that would immediately improve their lineup today and for a couple of seasons to come. The report also mentions that Bowden believes a deal for Chisholm could include former first-overall pick, Henry Davis.

Davis has been at Triple-A for the majority of the 2024 season. He’s struggled in his 91 career games with the big league club. In the minors this year, he’s posting a 158 wRC+ with 9 homers in 35 games. He’s hitting the ball in the air more, leading to more power and a barrel rate that is over doubled from what it was through his 29 MLB games.

Taylor Ward

Ward is under control through the 2026 season and while his performance at the plate to this point in 2024 has been subpar, a change of scenery could be what Ward needs to revert to his 2022 self.

The righty outfielder has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. His .226/.309/.396 slash line is not indicative of how he’s been hitting the baseball. His 13.6% barrel rate ranks 20th among qualified hitters. Of those 19 hitters, he is one of three who doesn’t have a wRC+ above 100 (he’s at 98).

If we take a look at his SLG minus xSLG (to quantify unluckiness via expected metrics):

He’s the sixth unluckiest hitter in baseball by xSLG. I think it’s safe to assume he’s due for positive regression down the stretch.

From 2021-2023, Ward was a 121 wRC+ hitter who posted 6.0 fWAR in just under 300 games. Ward is under control until 2027 and he’d be a fantastic improvement to the Pirates outfield.

Lane Thomas

If the Pirates want to focus more on improving power output, Lane Thomas could be their target. Thomas hit 28 homers in 2023, en route to a 3.1 fWAR season.

Thomas has cooled off since ’23 and is only under team control for one more season after 2024. He’s spent some time on the IL this season and has hit only 8 homers through 331 plate appearances. His asking price is much lower than it was this time last season.

The same report from Bowden mentioned that Thomas is also on the Pirates’ radar. The Nationals could be looking to move on from him considering he’ll be hitting free agency soon and their young outfield prospects are beginning to break through.

Left-Handed Starting Pitcher

While their current rotation has been one of the best in baseball, the innings for Skenes and Jones are piling up quickly. The front three of Skenes, Keller, and Jones would be a great rotation for the playoffs but what do you do for game 4?

Before the playoffs even, this rotation could have the best ERA in baseball if it wasn’t for Perez dragging it down. A replacement for Perez would give them a more solidified rotation down the stretch as well as better innings in the playoffs.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney would be the cheapest of the bunch. He’s a free agent after the season’s end. He has a 3.77 ERA so far this year and has a higher fWAR total than any other full season of his since 2018.

Heaney is a pitcher who could not only give them value down the stretch but also someone I’d be comfortable with getting important innings in the postseason. This lefty out of the bullpen or as a multi-inning opener could help the Pirates if they reach the playoffs.

Tyler Anderson

A reunion!

Anderson signed a three-year deal with the Angels ahead of the 2023 season and still will have another year under contract after 2024. Anderson is having one of those weird “sub-3.00 ERA Tyler Anderson” seasons where nobody truly knows what’s going on or if he can keep it up.

His fastball velocity has dropped to below 90 MPH and yet he’s having his best season since the Dodgers made him a 4-win pitcher back in 2022.

Regardless of how he’s managing to achieve this success, Anderson at the back of this rotation for the remainder of the season and all of 2025 could be a great fit.

Trevor Rogers

Trevor Rogers has yet to return to his 2021 form. That season saw him post a 2.64 ERA and 4.3 fWAR. In each season combined since then, he’s posted a 4.92 ERA across 230.1 innings- good for just 1.8 fWAR. Rogers spent most of last season on the injured list and hasn’t bounced back in style.

An interesting situation could arise if the Pirates want to try and get Miami to package for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Rogers.

Cheaper Options

If the Pirates want to play it safe and search for more marginal improvements, those options are available. These players are less exciting but far cheaper than the players mentioned above.

The Detroit Tigers announced that they are listening to offers on Mark Canha. He has been an above-average hitter for Detroit and can provide veteran, playoff experience for the young hitters in Pittsburgh.

Jesse Winker has been one of the best hitters facing RHP in the league this season. The addition of this veteran lefty bat would instantly improve one of Pittsburgh’s biggest flaws as a team. Winker hasn’t been merely a platoon bat, he’s posted a 126 wRC+ in 100 games.

Some reports have suggested that Josh Bell could make a return to Pittsburgh if the Pirates’ front office wants to platoon the switch-hitting Bell with Rowdy Tellez, who has been a worse hitter when facing LHP and Bell is a career 105 wRC+ hitter against southpaws.

Outlook

The Pirates shouldn’t find it necessary to pull out all of the stops at this year’s deadline. This is a young roster with immense potential as the years go on.

The players I’ve suggested they add are ones that for the most part will either not cost them much in the way of prospects or ones that will give them value for a few years following the move.

A good deadline for the Pirates might not mean that they’ve become top dogs in the National League. It could simply just see Cherington take advantage of market trends by moving on from certain players while adding in needed spots.

Players such as Brent Rooker and Luis Robert Jr. would be A+ additions to this lineup. However, that would be the opposite of what I assume Cherington wants to do at this deadline. The asking price of these two players will be far too high for the Pirates to justify. This deadline is all about threading the needle. Get the players that are controllable or get very cheap bats that could heat up down the stretch. 

The 2021 Atlanta Braves pulled off one of the best needle-threading deadlines baseball has ever seen. Players like Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson cost next to nothing but each of those players won an MVP for the playoff series throughout their playoff run. Lucky? Maybe. However, it’s proof that trade deadline acquisitions don’t have to be golden ticket items in order to play a role in a team’s playoff success.