Sandy Alcantara Is the Marlins’ Best Chance to Boost the Farm

A lot has changed for the Miami Marlins since the last time Sandy Alcantara took the mound.

Then the reigning NL Cy Young, Alcantara went down a the beginning of September during the 2023 season, a year where the Marlins would make it to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.

Had Alcantara been healthy for that run, maybe the Marlins could have made more noise than being swept quickly by the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card round.

Since that early playoff exit, the Marlins have seen a complete turnover in their management team and they have gone into another complete teardown of everything on the roster outside of Sandy.

Now after missing all of the 2024 season, Sandy is set to return atop the Marlins rotation, but under completely different circumstances than when he last pitched. Now, the question remains how long will this be for?

It is not a secret that the Marlins are undergoing yet another facelift of their organization with the slew of moves Peter Bendix has made over the last year.

After shipping their other frontline starter Jesus Luzardo to the division-rival Phillies, all eyes are now on Sandy Alcantara and the countdown has begun as to how many more games he will be pitching in a Marlins uniform.

Cy Young Sandy

Before the surgery, Sandy was not pitching to what baseball fans remember him being the season prior.

He was coming off of a 2022 season where he pitched to a 2.28 ERA, an MLB-leading 228.2 innings pitched, and six complete games over 32 starts. All of that led to him becoming the 10th unanimous Cy Young award winner since the year 2000.

2023 was the year that ultimately left a little bit of a sour taste in people’s mouths and has left people wondering which version of Sandy we are going to get after a year removed from baseball.

Over 184.2 innings, he pitched to a 4.14 ERA and saw his K/9 drop, while his BB/9 (1.97 to 2.34) and HF/FB rate (8.5% to 12.9%) both ballooned up.

The one thing that no one can question is Sandy’s work ethic and how hard he has been working to get back to the mound. There were questions whether we would see him make an appearance at the end of last year, but the Marlins ultimately decided to let him take the full year to return to form since they were not playing for anything at the end of the season.

We have seen a lot of reports and videos recently about his comeback, and while it is not in-game, Sandy looks to be ready to go after a few bullpen and live AB reports have all come back positive.

What’s Next?

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, Sandy’s days in Miami are likely numbered. Back in 2022, Sandy and the Marlins agreed to an extension that looked like a bargain after he clearly outpitched that in his first season.

2025 is when he starts to become a little more expensive relative to what he was making before. With a salary of $17.3 million over the next two years, if Alcantara can return to somewhere in between his 2022 and 2023 seasons, it could still be considered a bargain with how the pitching market has developed since his extension.

Even then, a team that trades for him also has a club option they can exercise of $21 million in 2027 should he be the pitcher we remember him to be.

The Marlins moving Luzardo after being shut down last year with a significant back injury shows that they may not be willing to take too much of a chance on their pitchers bouncing fully back to form after an injury.

While a back injury is different from an elbow injury, an argument could be made to deal Alcantara right now to avoid any re-injury that would dampen his trade value.

The difference here is that Alcantara is arguably their biggest trade chip, and one that is worth gambling on. If he returns to Cy Young form, the Marlins could ask for a king’s ransom for Alcantara at the deadline.

If he simply proves health and is pitching to around the same levels we saw in 2023, the packages the Marlins would get in return are likely about the same as what they could get now.

Peter Bendix has done a good job in maximizing returns in trades to fit the new timeframe he believes their window to compete to be.

There would be no shortage of suitors for someone of Sandy’s caliber and there are always teams looking to upgrade their pitching staff.

Prospects may not always translate, so there will always be skepticism about trading proven talent for unproven assets, but this is where trusting the new development team put in place will be the key to the Marlins’ success in the future.

Once Sandy is made “publicly” available, I would expect organizations like the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox to be on the long list of teams looking to acquire the services of the former Cy Young Award winner.