Do the Milwaukee Brewers Still Need More Pitching Help?

The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They have the third-best record in the National League at 54-40, and they hold a five-game lead in the NL Central heading into the final weekend ahead of the Midsummer Classic.

For years, Milwaukee’s regular season success has hinged upon the dominance of its starting rotation, but it has been a different story in 2024. Instead, it’s been the offense that has helped the Brewers build a commanding division lead while they piece together their starting rotation with a myriad of arms.

The Brewers have started sixteen different pitchers to this point in the season, which is the most in all of baseball. It’s a rotation that has featured a fluid stream of openers, rookies getting their first crack at big league action, and veterans attempting to carve out a role in the middle of the rotation.

While it’s a formula that has worked to this point, the Brewers need to add more reinforcements to their rotation if they wish to take the leap into legitimate postseason contention come season’s end.

Back on July 3, the Brewers sparked the July trade market when they acquired veteran starter Aaron Civale from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Civale brings an element of experience and reliability to the rotation, which will be much needed down the stretch for Milwaukee. However, this team needs to do more to round out the rotation in order to compete with some of the top teams in the National League this October.

Stats taken prior to play on July 12.

Current State of the Brewers’ Starting Rotation

Without a doubt, the starting rotation has been the weak spot on Milwaukee’s roster to this point in the season. While the Brewers have managed to stay afloat despite the heavy turnover of starters, the rotation is an area they need to address at the upcoming trade deadline.

Below is a table highlighting how Milwaukee’s starters stack up in the National League thus far:

While the Brewers’ starting rotation is middle-of-the-pack in terms of ERA, some of the peripheral metrics aren’t as optimistic. For instance, they’re 14th in the National League in FIP, yielding the second-largest negative disparity between ERA and FIP at -0.39.

There are several factors that contribute to that discrepancy. First, they’re in a tie for last in the NL in home runs per nine innings at 1.32. Additionally, they are near the bottom of the rankings in strikeout-to-walk ratio at 2.50.

What’s more, Milwaukee’s starters are stranding runners at the third-highest rate in the NL (74.8%), and their BABIP of .279 is one of the best in the league, in large part due to the team’s stellar defensive performance.

While there’s always a chance they can maintain this level of success (especially given their strong infield defense), regression in either of those two categories could generate real trouble for Milwaukee’s pitching staff in the second half of the season.

The Brewers have received valuable contributions all throughout their rotation, but how sustainable is that success? It might be enough to get them through the summer, but there is serious concern regarding how this starting rotation would hold up in a playoff series as currently constructed:

As the trade deadline nears, the Brewers will have an important assessment ahead of them: What do they wish to accomplish this season? If their goal is simply to win the division and make the postseason, then perhaps this rotation is good enough to accomplish that mission.

However, if the club has legitimate World Series aspirations, and they are striving to make a deep postseason run, then there is far too much uncertainty in the current state of the rotation for the front office to sit on their hands at the upcoming trade deadline.

The Brewers’ Rotation Lock

Freddy Peralta is the cornerstone of this rotation. While it’s been somewhat of a disappointing year thus far for Peralta, considering his high expectations heading into the season, he’s getting the ball game one of a postseason series if the Brewers are in that position.

Inconsistency has prevented Peralta from taking the leap to become a true ace, and command issues have plagued some of his starts this season. Over 18 turns through the rotation, Peralta has an ERA near four, but he is one of the few starters in Milwaukee’s rotation who is underperforming relative to his peripheral metrics.

Peralta is still one of the top strikeout artists in the game, as he is sporting the fifth-best K/9 in MLB (11.39) to go with a 30.3% strikeout rate, which is in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Likewise, his opponents’ batting average of .211 is the sixth-best in the National League, and his WHIP of 1.15 is just outside the top 10 in the NL.

Peralta has the makings of an ace when he is at the top of his game, and he has a history of elevating his play after the All-Star break in recent seasons. The Brewers will need the 28-year-old to put together a monster second half of the season as they strive to defend their division crown.

The Uncertainty in Milwaukee’s Rotation

Following a stellar month of June, Tobias Myers has emerged as the Brewers’ second-best arm as of late. Early season struggles led to a demotion to Triple-A back at the beginning of May, but he has been a completely different pitcher since he was recalled on May 21.

Since that date, Myers is sporting a 2.50 ERA in his nine turns through the rotation. What’s more, he was second in all of baseball in ERA in the month of June (1.44) to go with the fourth-best WHIP (0.89).

Myers has commanded his pitches at another level over the past month, and he’s played an enormous role in the Brewers’ success. In fact, he’s the only Brewers pitcher to go eight or more innings in an outing this season, and he has done it twice already.

That being said, there is risk in relying upon Myers to be an impact starter as the season progresses. After spending some time with five different organizations prior to joining Milwaukee, the rookie is getting his first crack at big league action. It’s yet to be seen how his stuff will perform over the course of a full season.

While he has played an essential role in the Brewers building a division lead, it’s difficult to envision Myers maintaining this level of dominance for the remainder of the season.

Colin Rea has surpassed all expectations to this point, and he seems to find a way to generate outs every time he toes the rubber. Pitching to a 3.81 ERA, Rea’s blend of reliability and consistency on the mound has been essential for Milwaukee.

Rea leans on the defense behind him to make plays by pounding the strike zone and keeping the ball on the ground, and it’s a formula that has worked thus far.

However, there’s reason to believe Rea is overperforming relative to his peripherals. He’s allowed a good amount of hard contact this season, as he sits in the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate (41.4%) and the 30th percentile in barrel rate (8.9%), according to Baseball Savant.

Likewise, Rea is in the bottom 12% of baseball in average exit velocity (90.5 mph), and in turn, he is sporting some of the worst expected statistics in all of MLB.

His expected batting average is nearly 50 points greater than his actual batting average allowed. Moreover, his expected ERA is substantially worse than his actual ERA (5.22 xERA, 3.81 ERA), and he is rocking a FIP that is nearly one run higher than his ERA as well.

While Rea has been vital to this rotation, it’s unclear whether he can maintain this level of success on the mound come October.

Additions at the Margins

The Brewers have been active on the trade market over the past few weeks as they attempt to build depth in the starting rotation.

Back on June 26, the Brewers acquired veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel from the Seattle Mariners. Now in his 13th major league season, the 36-year-old is well beyond his prime at this point in his career.

Keuchel has struggled to stick on a major league roster over the past handful of seasons, as struggles on the mound have led to a handful of releases from several different organizations.

That said, Milwaukee brought in Keuchel to soak up innings and help them get through the summer while other internal reinforcements work to return from the injured list. The Brewers need all the help they can get in the rotation, and they will see if they can get some productive starts out of him this summer.

Keuchel is currently sporting a 4.61 ERA with a 1.68 WHIP through his first three starts as a Brewer.

As mentioned earlier, the Brewers’ addition of Aaron Civale was much more significant in terms of what their rotation could look like come October.

Civale struggled with the Rays this season, pitching to a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts, which was a significant step back from a 2023 campaign in which he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 3.57 FIP. Still, if there is an organization that can help him recapture his form, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers.

He may not be a frontline starter, but he’s an arm the Brewers can trust in the postseason. There’s a lot of baseball to be played and a lot of potential moves that could come to fruition, but as of now, there’s a chance Civale gets the ball in game two or game three of a postseason series for Milwaukee.

Arms on the Mend

It’s worth noting that the Brewers have internal reinforcements on the way, as there are a handful of arms set to soon return from the injured list.

Joe Ross, who has been on the shelf since May 21 with a lower back strain, recently started his rehab assignment and should be rejoining the ball club after the All-Star break.

The 31-year-old is sporting an ERA of 4.50 and a FIP of 3.96 to go with a 1.38 WHIP across 42 innings of work this season.

Ross will be a welcome addition to the rotation, but he likely isn’t an arm that will help catapult the ball club into World Series contention. On top of the workload concerns that were already present before he hit the shelf, it’s unclear what version of Ross we will see when he returns to the rotation as he continues to recover from his back injury.

DL Hall, one of the young players the Brewers received for Corbin Burnes this offseason, should return to the Brewers in the near future as well. Hall’s role with the team for the remainder of the 2024 season remains up in the air, however.

Heading into the season, there were already questions as to whether Hall was ready for a starting role, and his early season performance didn’t ease those concerns. He struggled as a starter prior to landing on the injured list back in April with a left knee sprain.

Both his pitch command and control were very spotty, and his fastball took a major step back in terms of performance and efficiency.

If Hall’s stuff sees an uptick in performance upon his return, there’s no doubt he’ll be an extremely valuable addition to this pitching staff, regardless of what his role ends up being.

Yet, as has been the theme with most of the arms previously discussed, there should be hesitancy in relying upon Hall as an impact starter down the stretch when he has yet to show that he’s capable of being a big league starter to this point.

The Brewers Should Still Be In the Market for Starters

All in all, the Brewers have far too much unpredictability in their rotation to call it quits with the addition of Civale. While the move should serve as a nice boost to the rotation, this team should still be in the market for starting pitching.

There are plenty of names that could be available at the trade deadline who could make Milwaukee’s rotation a whole lot better, and there should be nothing stopping the Brewers from taking advantage of this window of opportunity.

They have been the clear-cut leaders in the National League Central for a majority of the 2024 season, and they finally have an offense that is capable of competing with the likes of the Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves this postseason – something that couldn’t be said for the past handful of years.

The Brewers have been complacent with simply getting to the playoffs in recent seasons, and they have often been reluctant to make the one move that would take them into the next tier of contention. Now, they have an opportunity to capitalize on their strong start and set their sights not only on a second consecutive division title but a legitimate postseason run with just a few more additions to their starting rotation.