2027 MLB Arbitration Salary Projections

A comprehensive team-by-team guide of every arb-eligible player in MLB, with salary projections and projected tender decisions.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 28: Paul Skenes (30) of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch during an MLB game against the Chicago Cubs on May 28, 2026 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 28: Paul Skenes (30) of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch during an MLB game against the Chicago Cubs on May 28, 2026 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Over the past handful of years, I’ve had the opportunity to see arbitration from nearly every angle. I’ve seen it from the viewpoint of one of the largest agencies in the world, sat inside the MLBPA’s conference room on Exchange Day while assisting with live market analysis for 10+ different agencies, built slides for attorneys, and been in the room for an arbitration hearing.

I’ve also gone through a Tender Deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline, and Exchange Day with an MLB front office. Seeing the process from so many viewpoints has given me a true appreciation for all the underlying factors involved and led me to share my work in an effort to showcase what is at play in each case.

You will see salary estimates for each potential arb-eligible player below, but each player’s case was analyzed manually, with a full market analysis, case breakdown, and tender prediction. Those can all be found in the Team Arbitration Guides linked for each team throughout this article, which also include Roster Outlooks and Rule 5 Draft Protection Predictions.

All players not signed to guaranteed deals who are tendered a contract and have between three and six years of Major League service have the right to negotiate their salary for the upcoming season.

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If the sides cannot agree, the case can proceed to an arbitration hearing, where a neutral panel selects one of the two proposed salaries.

Some players with fewer than three years of service earn that right through “Super Two” status, which allows certain players with at least two but fewer than three years of Major League service to become arbitration-eligible one year early.

Under the current calculation, a player must also have at least 86 days of service in the immediately preceding season and rank in the top 22% in service time among the eligible two-to-three-year service class. My manually calculated Super Two cutoff this season is 2.134, though that figure is unofficial, as are all Major League service-time figures shown throughout this series.

When a player is first eligible for arbitration—typically referred to as Arb-1 or 1TE—his case is usually analyzed as a “slotting case.”

In a slotting case, the player’s career statistics, trajectory, and award recognition are compared with players from previous seasons at the same arbitration stage to determine where he fits based on what those players earned.

Players eligible for arbitration in subsequent years are typically analyzed through a “raise case,” which focuses solely on the most recent season—known as the Platform Year, or “PY”—and compares it with specific seasons from previous players, using the raises those players received from their prior salaries as the framework.

There are also players who enter arbitration after signing minor league contracts or agreeing to deals before the prior Tender Deadline (“pre-tender” deals). These “out-of-system” cases can be handled either way depending on the specific circumstances.

Even in the analytical era of baseball, arbitration still rewards the back-of-the-baseball-card statistics.

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Across markets, more playing time generally leads to more money, while stronger award recognition also increases a player’s value. Among players with similar playing time, position-player cases tend to focus on raw power and run production, such as HR and RBI, alongside quality metrics like wRC+.

Starting-pitcher cases are judged heavily on measures such as quality starts and ERA, while relief-pitcher cases tend to focus on saves, holds, ERA, and gmLI. gmLI, or Game Leverage Index, measures the importance of the situations in which a pitcher is used; the higher the gmLI, the more important the situations.

Without further ado, here are the projections for all players believed to be arbitration-eligible in 2027, with full case breakdowns and market analysis available on their individual team pages linked throughout.

Los Angeles Angels

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 10 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $33,500,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Angels case and tender predictions, click here

Houston Astros

*Astros hold a $13.35M Club Option on Isaac Parades that they should accept

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 9 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $51,370,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Astros case and tender predictions, click here

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Athletics

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 4 | Projected Tendered: 4 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $13,725,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Athletics case and tender predictions, click here

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 8 | Projected Tendered: 8 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $26,200,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Blue Jays case and tender predictions, click here

Atlanta Braves

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 6 | Projected Tendered: 5 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $10,730,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Braves case and tender predictions, click here

Milwaukee Brewers

*Brewers hold a $14.5M Club Option on William Contreras that they should decline, placing him back in arbitration system

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 16 | Projected Tendered: 14 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $57,335,000

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For an in-depth breakdown on every Brewers case and tender predictions, click here

St. Louis Cardinals

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 8 | Projected Tendered: 7 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $25,000,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Cardinals case and tender predictions, click here

Chicago Cubs

* Cubs hold a $3.3M Club Option on Javier Assad that they should accept

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 9 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $26,425,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Cubs case and tender predictions, click here

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 4 | Projected Tendered: 3 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $16,575,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Diamondbacks case and tender predictions, click here

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 6 | Projected Tendered: 6 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $11,000,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Dodgers case and tender predictions, click here

San Francisco Giants

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 9 | Projected Tendered: 4 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $6,670,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Giants case and tender predictions, click here

Cleveland Guardians

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 13 | Projected Tendered: 13 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $47,437,500

For an in-depth breakdown on every Guardians case and tender predictions, click here

Seattle Mariners

* Mariners hold a $6.075M Club Option on Bryce Miller that they should decline, placing him back in the arbitration system

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 15 | Projected Tendered: 13 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $56,519,500

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For an in-depth breakdown on every Mariners case and tender predictions, click here

Miami Marlins

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 9 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $24,905,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Marlins case and tender predictions, click here

New York Mets

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 10 | Projected Tendered: 6 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $14,200,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Mets case and tender predictions, click here

Washington Nationals

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 8 | Projected Tendered: 6 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $20,270,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Nationals case and tender predictions, click here

Baltimore Orioles

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 7 | Projected Tendered: 4 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $21,475,000

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For an in-depth breakdown on every Orioles case and tender predictions, click here

San Diego Padres

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 8 | Projected Tendered: 8 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $24,375,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Padres case and tender predictions, click here

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 9 | Projected Tendered: 6 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $32,330,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Phillies case and tender predictions, click here

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 10 | Projected Tendered: 10 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $28,132,500

For an in-depth breakdown on every Pirates case and tender predictions, click here

Texas Rangers

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 10 | Projected Tendered: 10 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $38,225,000

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For an in-depth breakdown on every Rangers case and tender predictions, click here

Tampa Bay Rays

* Rays hold a $3.1M Club Option on Taylor Walls that they should accept

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 17 | Projected Tendered: 14 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $47,840,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Rays case and tender predictions, click here

Boston Red Sox

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 16 | Projected Tendered: 13 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $42,125,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Red Sox case and tender predictions, click here

Cincinnati Reds

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 11 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $41,470,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Reds case and tender predictions, click here

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Colorado Rockies

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 5 | Projected Tendered: 5 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $16,825,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Rockies case and tender predictions, click here

Kansas City Royals

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 11 | Projected Tendered: 9 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $16,195,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Royals case and tender predictions, click here

Detroit Tigers

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 12 | Projected Tendered: 10 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $36,875,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Tigers case and tender predictions, click here

Minnesota Twins

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 10 | Projected Tendered: 10 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $47,020,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every Twins case and tender predictions, click here

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Chicago White Sox

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 6 | Projected Tendered: 5 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $11,320,000

For an in-depth breakdown on every White Sox case and tender predictions, click here

New York Yankees

Projected Arb Eligible Players: 9 | Projected Tendered: 9 | Total Salary Projection of Tendered: $38,037,500

For an in-depth breakdown on every Yankees case and tender predictions, click here