Detroit Tigers Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Detroit Tigers Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 48

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: Jansen (Club, $12M); Anderson (Club, $10M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 2; Josue Briceno, Max Anderson

WILL VEST (5.100): $4,300,000 ($350k raise)

The Case: Vest spent over 100 days and ended the season on the IL, appearing in 27 games and accumulating 9 SV+HLDs.

Jonathan Loáisiga (2023, $237.5k raise), Kevin Ginkel (2025, $300k raise) and Tony Cingrani (2018, $350k raise) provide the most comparable seasons. All three pitched in 30 games or fewer with between 5 and 11 SV+HLDs, with Loáisiga and Ginkel also ending the season on the IL.

Cingrani did return to pitch in September, which is the reason Loáisiga and Ginkel received smaller raises even several years later. Because Vest is coming from a higher previous salary, he gets the $350k raise at the top of this range without surpassing Cingrani.

Tender Prediction: Vest will be tendered a contract barring any major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ZACH MCKINSTRY (5.099): $5,400,000 ($1.2M raise)

The Case: McKinstry enters from a $4.2M Arb-2 salary after totaling 423 PA with 4 HR, 49 RBI and a 65 wRC+ while filling a utility role.

Mauricio Dubón (2024, $1.5M raise) provides the ceiling after 428 PA with 4 HR, 47 RBI and an 87 wRC+. Mauricio Dubón (2025, $1.1M raise) as a 4TE provides the floor after 398 PA with 7 HR, 33 RBI and an 80 wRC+. McKinstry’s 65 wRC+ keeps him below the $1.5M raise, while his bulk advantage over the lower comp gets him above $1.1M. I project a $1.2M raise, bringing him to $5.4M.

Tender Prediction: McKinstry will be tendered a contract despite the down year, as his positional versatility is key for the Tigers roster. I would expect Detroit to try to work out a pre-tender deal. Pre-Tender.

MATT VIERLING (5.026): $4,105,000 ($850k raise)

The Case: Vierling enters from a $3.255M salary after totaling 291 PA with 5 HR, 31 RBI and a 61 wRC+ while missing roughly two months on the IL and finishing the season injured.

Jorge Mateo (2024, $850k raise) is the best comparison after coming from a $2.7M previous salary and totaling 208 PA with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 13 SB and an 87 wRC+ before also finishing on the IL.

Tyler O’Neill (2023, $900k raise) provides the ceiling for Vierling after posting 266 PA with 9 HR, 21 RBI and a 97 wRC+, also ending on the IL. Mateo is the closer salary/statistical fit, while O’Neill’s superior power and quality keep Vierling below $900k. I project an $850k raise, bringing Vierling to a $4.105M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Vierling should be a DFA/non-tender. The roster has outgrown him and I do not see the need for Vierling with the Tigers now having multiple capable center fielders and Malgeri available as a weak-side platoon option in the outfield.

The only argument for a tender in my opinion is to move him in a trade, but I am not sure that market is robust enough to warrant guaranteeing the salary. I would expect Vierling to get a Major League deal with a rebuilding club that can use his positional versatility and potentially flip him for a prospect at the deadline. Non-Tender.

RILEY GREENE (4.110): $9,250,000 ($4.25M raise)

The Case: Greene earned $5M in his first trip through arbitration and, despite missing some time with injury, still posted enough bulk counting stats with 592 PA for a qualifying season. Greene appeared in his third straight All-Star Game while hitting 21 HR, driving in 75 RBI and hitting to the tune of an elite 136 wRC+.

Willy Adames (2022, $4.1M raise) is the most obvious comp here. Like Greene, he also missed a few weeks with an injury and came from an Arb1 salary just $400k below Greene. Adames posted 617 PA, 31 HR and 98 RBI, giving him advantages in the bulk, power and run production counting stats, while his 109 wRC+ trails Greene greatly in the rate stats. Additionally, Adames was not named an All-Star or considered for any major awards.

With Adames holding significant counting stat advantages, I do not think Greene can go too far higher, but the All-Star appearance, elite rate stats and higher starting salary should allow Greene to edge past Adames at a $4.25M raise, resulting in a $9.25M total salary. This is a delicate with no real raises from previous salary neighbors nearby, This case could swing greatly if Greene receives significant award consideration.

Tender Prediction: Greene will be tendered a contract, but there are a lot of interesting agent dynamics here in regards to an extension if the Tigers have interest in one. Greene’s agency, Apex, lost Pete Alonso to Scott Boras right before his last year of arbitration, which ultimately meant about $10M in commission for Boras.

An agency is always going to do what is best for the player and what the player wants, but it certainly may alter their opinion on getting something done earlier. Apex has since agreed to an extension with the Cubs on Nico Hoerner before his walk year.

The Tigers also have a ton of money coming off the books from last year’s Opening Day payroll, which gives them a lot of opportunity to front-load a contract and lower the cash on the backend. Tendrer.

SPENCER TORKELSON (4.076): $6,950,000 ($2.875M raise)

The Case: Torkelson posted a qualifying season with 612 PA, 26 HR and 77 RBI while hitting to the tune of a 115 wRC+. His $4.075M Arb1 salary gives him a very clean starting point in a part of the market with several relevant lookback comparisons.

Ian Happ (2021, $2.75M raise) is the clear floor coming from a nearly identical $4.1M previous salary. Torkelson holds advantages over Happ in the bulk, power and run production counting stats along with the rate stats, which should allow him to comfortably clear Happ’s raise.

Corey Dickerson (2017, $2.925M raise) remains an important comparison despite being an older case because the market has shown no reason to ignore it. Dickerson holds slight advantages in the bulk and power counting stats and the rate stats, while Torkelson holds the run production counting stat advantage with 77 RBI compared to Dickerson’s 62 RBI. Torkelson falls just short of Dickerson overall, but the comparison places him very close to Dickerson’s raise.

Jake Burger (2026, $2.875M proj. raise) is also a relevant current-class comp. Burger has slight advantages over Torkelson in the bulk, power and run production counting stats, while Torkelson has the advantage in the rate stats.

Both players fall just short of Dickerson for different reasons, with Burger comparing better in the power counting stat while Dickerson holds a significant rate-stat advantage over Burger. A $2.875M raise for both Torkelson and Burger keeps them just below Dickerson and results in a $6.95M total salary for Torkelson.

Tender Prediction: Torkelson will be tendered a contract, although I would not be surprised if the best version of the 2027 Tigers has Briceno or a Keith/Valencia platoon in that role. Right-handed power does not grow on trees, so he is worth the tender. Tender.

KERRY CARPENTER (4.057): $4,025,000 ($750k raise)

The Case: Carpenter missed a big chunk of the season with injury and ended the season on the IL, finishing with 259 PA, 13 HR and 36 RBI while hitting to the tune of a 90 wRC+.

Luke Voit (2021, $750k raise) is the best comparison after posting an extremely similar season with 241 PA, 11 HR and 35 RBI while hitting to the tune of a 113 wRC+ and also ending the season on the IL. Carpenter holds slight advantages in the bulk, power and run production counting stats, while Voit holds the clear advantage in wRC+. Those differences largely offset each other and make Voit’s raise a strong landing point for Carpenter.

Luke Raley (2026, $950k proj. raise) is a useful current-class reference point after ending the season on the IL with 287 PA, 15 HR and a 106 wRC+. Raley holds advantages in the bulk and power counting stats along with the rate stats, which should keep his projected raise above Carpenter’s. Carpenter fits directly at Voit’s $750k raise, resulting in a $4.025M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Carpenter will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

TYLER HOLTON (4.047): $2,900,000 ($1.325M raise)

The Case: The arbitration process does not value guys like Tyler Holton well due to the lack of holds, saves and low gmLI. Holton still posted a quality 2.75 ERA across 72 IP.

A.J. Puk (2024, $1.15M raise) is the best comparison, coming from a similar salary range with nearly identical SVs, HLDs and IP. Both guys were used in similar roles, tallying a few starts and being used in the middle innings with the ability to pitch multiple innings. Because Puk spent some time on the IL and Holton holds an advantage in the ERA rate stat, Puk’s raise is the floor for Holton.

Matt Barnes (2019, $1.5M raise) and Tyler Rogers (2023, $1.525M raise) posted similar bulk counting stats and ERA/FIP rate stats, but accumulated significantly more SV+HLDs with higher gmLIs. Holton’s raise belongs right in between Puk and this group of Barnes and Rogers, resulting in a projected $1.325M raise and $2.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Holton will be tendered a contract and is also a sneaky extension candidate because arbitration does not reward elite middle relievers like Holton particularly well. That gives Detroit some leverage to put extra money on the front end to buy out a year or two at a potentially favorable number, especially considering Holton has made less than $5M in his entire career. Tender.

BEAU BRIESKE (4.007): $1,257,500 ($100k raise)

The Case: Brieske spent over 60 days each on the IL and optional assignment.

These cases rarely get tendered. Carter Capps (2017, $75k raise) provides a clear floor for Brieske with less IP and worse ERA/FIP rate stats than Brieske, including a 6.57 ERA. Cole Sulser (2025, $150k raise) provides a firm ceiling, coming from a similar previous salary and posting superior ERA/FIP rate stats and leverage with a similar workload and days spent on option plus IL. Sulser posted a 1.99 ERA with a 1.07 gmLI, which trumps Brieske’s 4.76 ERA and 0.45 gmLI.

Brieske clearly belongs below Sulser. I project a $100k raise placing Brieske right in between these two comparisons.

Tender Prediction: Brieske is probably a DFA/non-tender after using his final option, especially with some extension data suggesting he is still yet to return to full health after all the injuries over the last few years. A split-deal pre-tender could be explored because it lowers the risk of keeping him by allowing Detroit to avoid paying the full Major League rate if he clears waivers. Non-Tender.

REESE OLSON (3.123): $950,000

The Case: Olson enters arbitration after missing his entire PY with a 3.60 ERA across 284.2 career IP and 53 starts.

Johan Oviedo (2024, $850k salary) also missed his entire PY entering arbitration with 320.2 IP, 58 starts and a 4.32 ERA while Griffin Canning (2022, $850k salary) had 209.1 IP across 41 starts with a 4.73 ERA.

Olson falls between the two in career bulk with a significant quality advantage over both, and should also fall above the rest of this current missed-PY SP class with the best combination of career bulk and quality. I project Olson to earn a $950k Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Olson will be tendered a contract assuming there are no major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JACOB WAGUESPACK (3.032): $925,000

The Case: Waguespack enters arbitration with 149.1 career IP across 64 appearances and 15 starts, but has only 6 career holds and no saves. His platform season was strong from a quality standpoint, throwing 43.2 IP with 5 HLD and a 2.47 ERA, and unlike much of his career he stayed off the option and IL lists throughout the season.

Zach Pop (2024, $900k salary) entered arbitration with almost identical career bulk at 155.2 IP and had 15 career holds and 1 SV before throwing 48.1 IP with 10 HLD and a 5.59 ERA. Waguespack trails significantly in SV+HLD but has a massive platform-quality advantage.

Hunter Harvey (2022, $870k salary) had much less career bulk but threw a similar 39.1 platform-year IP with 6 HLD and a 2.52 ERA. The starting experience and quality are enough to get Waguespack above the high-$800k historical cases, but he simply does not have enough SV+HLD to get higher. I project a $925k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Waguespack will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

WENCEEL PEREZ (2.171): $1,225,000

The Case: Perez only got 175 PA’s in his PY posting 7 HR’s, 17 RBI and a 64 wRC+ but enters arbitration with 983 career PA’s, 29 HR’s, 97 RBI, 20 SB and a 92 wRC+.

Oswaldo Cabrera (2025, $1.2M salary) is a really good comp with 949 career PA’s, 20 HR’s, 95 RBI and an 81 wRC+ while only getting 122 PA’s in his PY. Perez has the better career production than Cabrera but Jack Suwinski (2025, $1.25M salary) had similar PY bulk with 178 PA’s and entered with significantly more career bulk and power with 1361 PA’s, 57 HR’s and 148 RBI. Perez should get by Cabrera but not Suwinski, I project him at $1.225M.

Tender Prediction: Perez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

PARKER MEADOWS (2.169): $950,000

The Case: Meadows essentially had no PY with only 39 PA’s but enters arbitration with 695 career PA’s, 16 HR’s, 59 RBI, 24 SB and a 94 wRC+.

Richard Palacios (2025, $945k salary) is almost a perfect comp, Palacios only had 48 PA’s in his PY and entered arbitration with 589 career PA’s, 12 HR’s, 50 RBI, 27 SB and a 99 wRC+. Meadows has slightly more career bulk and power while Palacios has the slight quality advantage, there really isn’t enough difference between the two to move Meadows far off that number. I project Meadows at $950k.

Tender Prediction: Meadows will be tendered a contract, although it is an interesting decision what to do with him now that Clark is there full-time. Meadows could be a trade candidate, though I would also like to see him add some weight, move to a corner outfield spot and aim to fit the profile that his brother Austin Meadows had. Tender.