San Francisco Giants Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

San Francisco Giants Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 57

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 1

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 1; Joe Whitman

SAM HENTGES (5.157): $2,200,000 ($800k raise)

The Case: Hentges missed significant time on the IL but still made 45 appearances with 10 HLD and a 3.19 ERA.

Caleb Thielbar (2023, $825k raise) is the best comparison after a similarly injury-limited, high-quality season. Thielbar posted a 3.22 ERA with 14 HLD across 36 games and also came from a higher previous salary, giving him the advantage despite Hentges’ additional appearances. I project Hentges slightly below Thielbar at an $800k raise from his $1.4M previous salary, bringing him to $2.2M.

Tender Prediction: Hentges will be retained. I expect the Giants to try to get a pre-tender deal done below his projected arbitration market value, but either way I expect him to be with San Francisco in 2027. Pre-Tender.

ANDREW KNIZNER (5.138): $1,100,000 ($100k raise)

The Case: Knizner signed a minor league deal with a $1M Major League base and totaled only 80 PA. I project a small $100k raise, bringing him to $1.1M.

Tender Prediction: Knizner should be a DFA/non-tender because it does not make sense to guarantee money to a 5+ MLS backup catcher of Knizner’s caliber when similar quality can be found through minor-league free agency. Non-Tender.

CAMILO DOVAL (5.071): $6,400,000 ($300k raise)

The Case: Doval had a poor platform season after earning $6.1M, including a trade, time with three different teams and a DFA. He made 64 appearances totaling 58.2 IP with 8 SV, 1 HLD, a 4.30 ERA and 4.91 FIP.

Gregory Soto (2024, $350k raise) is the closest comparison with similar bulk and ERA, a slight SV+HLD advantage and no DFA. Dinelson Lamet (2022, $225k raise) provides the floor after also being DFA’d, with Doval having the statistical advantages across the board. If tendered, I project Doval between the two with a $300k raise, resulting in a $6.4M total salary.

Tender Prediction: This is by far the most interesting tender decision in recent memory. The Giants claimed Doval off waivers during the final week of the season, and Doval proclaimed that he wanted to be a Giant for life, which is brutal for whatever negotiating leverage his representatives once had.

Doval earning $6.1M this season means the Giants would have to pay him at least $4.88M through arbitration under the CBA’s maximum-cut rule, which requires a player to receive at least 80% of his previous salary.

As a 5+ MLS player who can elect free agency and keep his salary if outrighted, I do not think Doval is worth nearly that much to San Francisco. On the open market, he is probably worth somewhere in the $2M-$4M range at most because of the risk he carries.

One way around the maximum-cut rule is for the Giants to non-tender him, making him an XX(D) free agent immediately and allowing him to negotiate with any club. Because of his post-claim comments, the Giants should feel good about non-tendering him and attempting to bring him back on a much smaller deal.

San Francisco should also use the negotiating leverage it has to try to add a 2028 club option and create some potential surplus value. This is officially a non-tender prediction, but I still expect Doval to be with the Giants in 2027. Non-Tender.

JASON FOLEY (4.150): $2,100,000 ($100k raise)

The Case: Foley spent over 100 days on the IL after signing a $2M free-agent deal when Detroit released him last offseason. Jeremy Jeffress (2017, $200k raise) is an older comparison but came from a similar salary and pitched to similar quality by ERA with significantly more bulk by IP and more holds. A $100k raise seems to be the right number on a raise basis for Foley, resulting in a $2.1M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Foley is a likely DFA/non-tender because of the continued injury issues and the number of roster spots the Giants need to clear. Non-Tender.

ROWAN WICK (4.114): $800,000 (or Major League minimum)

The Case: Wick signed a Major League minimum deal for 2026 with the expectation that he would miss the entire season due to injury. Missing an entire season typically leads to a $0 raise, but Wick will still need to remain above the league minimum.

Tender Prediction: The Giants hold an $800k club option with a $100k buyout. It seems unusual to sign a player knowing he will miss the entire season only to decline the option afterward, but given the significant roster crunch the Giants are facing, I project they will eat the $100K buyout and decline the club option before a DFA/non-tender. They can then look to bring Wick back on a minor league deal, keeping him in the organization while removing him from the 40-man roster and helping alleviate their roster crunch. Non-Tender.

RYAN WALKER (3.049): $1,600,000

The Case: Walker enters his first arbitration year with 31 career SV and 37 HLD across 235.1 IP with a 3.56 ERA. He has accumulated legitimate late-inning experience and a strong career leverage résumé, although his history of optional assignment and loss of closer role in PY hurts his arbitration value and keeps him from being treated like a traditional full-time closer.

Héctor Neris (2018, $1.8M salary) provides the primary historical comparison. Neris entered arbitration with 39 career SV and 36 HLD while also having spent time on optional assignment in PY. Walker actually has one more career hold and comparable overall career leverage production, but Neris’ 39 saves give him the stronger traditional closer résumé. That save advantage is meaningful in arbitration and keeps Walker below Neris despite the similarities elsewhere.

Victor Vodnik (2026, $1.5M proj. salary) is a current class comp who enters with 23 SV and 19 HLD across 191.2 career IP. Daniel Palencia (2026, $1.55M proj. salary), another current class comp, enters with 26 career saves but only 125.1 career IP and has spent extensive time on option and the IL. Walker’s career SV advantage should put him on top of this group, though because they all lost the closer role in the PY, they should remain close together.

Walker’s profile belongs below Neris. I project Walker at a $1.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Walker should be tendered a contract. The Arb-1 closer market is especially interesting this year and could move salaries pretty drastically depending on the order in which the current-class cases settle. Tender.

CASEY SCHMITT (3.035): $2,050,000

The Case: Schmitt enters arbitration with four seasons of consistent league-average production, leading to a 96 career wRC+, but without a qualifying season and after finishing his platform year on the IL. His platform year was his best season yet, posting a 114 wRC+ with 21 HR in 409 PA and bringing his career totals entering arbitration to 1,147 PA and 44 HR.

Nolan Jones (2025, $2.0M salary) signed a pre-tender deal after, like Schmitt, finishing his platform season on the IL. Jones entered arbitration with similar career production, posting a 95 career wRC+ in 1,218 PA, though with only 30 career HR compared to Schmitt’s 44. Schmitt also had a much better platform year, providing a floor above Jones, although the Giants can argue that Jones’ deal was a pre-tender agreement and that Cleveland ultimately used the contract while pushing him through outright waivers, which did later occur.

Regardless, another 2025 comparison in Luke Raley (2025, $2.05M salary) sits just $50k above Jones. Schmitt again had the significantly better platform year, but Raley finished the season healthy, unlike Schmitt, and Raley’s career totals of 1,224 PA and 48 HR slightly top Schmitt’s, while his 114 career wRC+ is a massive advantage over Schmitt’s 96.

Schmitt’s representatives will argue that his platform year should carry him above this group, but with the season-ending injury I do not buy that argument. I project Schmitt to match Raley’s $2.05M salary.

Tender Prediction: Schmitt will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOSE BUTTO (2.168): $880,000

The Case: Butto’s platform season was essentially nonexistent, making 3 appearances and throwing only 2 IP. His case instead comes from 189 career IP across 98 appearances and 15 starts with 10 HLD, 4 SV and a 3.76 ERA.

Jimmy Herget (2024, $850k salary) is recent comparison with low PY total and similar career numbers totaling 155 career IP to a 3.54 ERA with 3 starts in 129 appearances. Butto career bulk advantage will give him a slight edge.

Manuel Rodriguez (2026, $890k proj. salary) and Carson Spiers (2026, $870k proj salary) are current class comparisons that should fall in similar range. I project Butto a total salary of $880k.

Tender Prediction: With Butto out of options and coming off an arm injury, I expect a DFA/non-tender, especially with the roster crunch San Francisco is facing. I would still expect the Giants to pursue Butto on a minor-league deal, potentially with friendlier Major League terms than he would receive through arbitration. Non-Tender.

RANDY RODRIGUEZ (2.148): $820,000

The Case: Rodriguez did not pitch at all in the majors during his platform season, so his strong 2025 performance cannot overcome the lack of any platform-year contribution. He enters arbitration with 103 career IP, 18 HLD, 4 SV and a 3.06 ERA.

Penn Murfee (2023, $780k salary) provides another zero-platform reference after entering with only 83.1 career IP but a strong 2.70 career ERA and 9 HLD. Mason Thompson (2023, $770k salary) entered with roughly 103.1 career IP, almost identical to Rodriguez, with around 15 career SV+HLD and a 4.53 ERA. Despite differences in career quality and leverage production, the entire group remained compressed near the minimum because none supplied platform-year value. I project Rodriguez at an $820k salary.

Tender Prediction: Rodriguez will be tendered a contract. He appears to finally be healthy, is pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and should be an exciting re-introduction to the Giants bullpen in 2027. Tender.