St. Louis Cardinals Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

St. Louis Cardinals Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 40

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 0

OPTIONS: Stanek (Club, $6.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Jesus Baez, Colton Ledbetter, Ixan Henderson

ANDRE PALLANTE (4.145): $7,500,000 ($3.5M raise)

The Case: Pallante had a very strong platform season, going 12-9 across 29 starts and 162 IP with a 3.83 ERA. Getting to the 162-inning qualifying threshold is meaningful here and gives Pallante a strong bulk argument on top of his solid run prevention.

Nestor Cortes (2024, $3.65M raise) is the best comparison from a nearly identical previous salary after throwing 174.1 IP with a 3.77 ERA. Austin Gomber (2024, $3.2M raise) provides a floor for Pallante after Gomber threw 165 IP with a 4.75 ERA.

Pallante fits between the two but much closer to Cortes, and I project a $3.5M raise for a total salary of $7.5M.

Tender Prediction: Pallante will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NOLAN GORMAN (4.055): $3,155,000 ($500k raise)

The Case: Gorman totaled 302 PA with 74 option days and more HR than the comparable current-class cases, but his 62 wRC+ and extended optional assignment suppress the raise.

Josh Rojas (2023, $525k raise) is the main historical comparison after totaling 350 PA with 40 option days. Rojas’ bulk advantage and significantly shorter optional assignment keep Gorman slightly below that raise.

Anthony Volpe (2026, $500k proj. raise) and Josh Smith (2026, $500k proj. raise) makeup the current-class comparisons. Gorman has more HR than both, but the 62 wRC+ and 74 option days offset those advantages. I project the same $500k raise as Volpe and Smith, bringing Gorman to $3.155M.

Tender Prediction: Gorman is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate now as a player with 3+ years of Major League service and no options remaining. Non-Tender.

ALEC BURLESON (4.029): $6,900,000 ($3.6M raise)

The Case: Burleson totaled 670 PA with 26 HR, 116 RBI and a 125 wRC+.

Isaac Paredes (2024, $3.225M raise) provides the absolute floor with 19 HR and 116 wRC+ in 641 PA. Burleson’s clear advantages in bulk, power, run production, and offensive quality will give him a higher raise than Paredes.

David Peralta (2018, $3.7M raise) provides the ceiling. Peralta posted a 130 wRC+, had more power and won a Silver Slugger, while Burleson has the bulk and counting-stat advantages.

Burleson belongs just below Peralta, and I project a $3.6M raise, bringing his total salary to $6.9M.

Tender Prediction: Burleson will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

MATTHEW LIBERATORE (3.144): $4,100,000 ($1.84M raise)

The Case: Liberatore made 31 starts and threw 155 IP with a 5.23 ERA and 6-14 record from a $2.26M previous salary.

Brady Singer (2023, $1.9M raise), Andrew Pallante (2025, $1.9M raise) and Austin Gomber (2023, $1.5M raise) provide the best range.

Pallante is the primary comparison as Singer and Gomber finished the season on the IL. Pallante entered from a $2.1M salary, almost identical to Liberatore’s $2.26M starting point, and the two also have the Cardinals connection and a very recent arbitration relationship. Pallante reached 162 IP in his platform season, giving him a qualifying season and an important bulk advantage over Liberatore’s 155 IP. Liberatore holds a slight ERA advantage and a significant strikeout advantage, but Pallante reaching the qualifying threshold gives him enough separation to remain slightly ahead. I project Liberatore just below the $1.9M group at a $1.84M raise, resulting in a $4.1M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Liberatore will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

MASYN WINN (3.045): $4,000,000

The Case: Winn enters arbitration as a defense-over-bat shortstop who has qualified in three straight seasons, amassing 1,843 career PA and earning a Gold Glove Award. His offensive production has been rather unimpressive with just 31 career HR and an 87 wRC+.

Steven Kwan (2024, $4.175M salary) and Brice Turang (2025, $4.15M salary) are great comparisons as fellow Gold Glove winners with similar career bulk. Kwan entered arbitration with three qualifying seasons and 1,896 career PA, while Turang had two qualifying seasons and 1,726 career PA.

Winn’s offensive quality is the weakest of the group, but Turang’s 95 career wRC+ still got him close to Kwan’s 117 career wRC+, and Winn has the extra qualifying season over Turang.

The platform-year quality disadvantage with Turang posting a 124 wRC+ is too large for Winn to match his salary, but his career bulk, three straight qualifying seasons and Gold Glove should keep him attached to this group and just below it. I project a $4.0M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Winn will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JORDAN WALKER (3.044): $3,550,000

The Case: Walker enters arbitration as a 1x qualifier with 1,706 career PA, 56 HR and a 101 wRC+, coming off a platform year in which he hit 29 HR and earned an All-Star selection.

The historical 1x-qualifier ceiling is set by Isaac Paredes (2023, $3.4M salary) and Tyler O’Neill (2021, $3.4M salary) after both entered off elite power seasons, but even after extrapolating the shortened 2020 season they totaled only 1,254 and 1,329 career PA respectively. Walker’s 1,706 career PA create enough bulk separation to move him through that $3.4M ceiling.

Wilyer Abreu (2026, $3.65M proj. salary) and Andy Pages (2026, $3.7M proj. salary) are the strongest current-class comparisons with all three carrying very similar career bulk and power. Walker’s up-and-down service time and less consistent performance keep him behind both. I project Walker at a $3.55M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Walker will be tendered a contract. This is a very interesting case after such a strong platform year, and the current-class comparisons could drag his number higher if they slot in higher in the market. Tender.

IVAN HERRERA (3.034): $2,900,000

The Case: Herrera is an odd case as a catcher who functions primarily as a DH. He has only one qualifying season, which came in his platform year when he totaled 717 PA, bringing his career line to 1,494 PA with 43 HR and a 119 wRC+.

Because so much of Herrera’s value comes from the bat rather than traditional catcher usage, I think his case fits better with the general position-player market.

Brendan Donovan (2024, $2.85M salary) is the best comparison after entering arbitration with 1,491 career PA and a 120 wRC+, including 652 PA in his platform year. Herrera has the platform-year bulk advantage and more career power, while Donovan’s ability to play the field regularly carries value that Herrera does not provide as a primary DH.

Those differences largely balance out, but Herrera’s extra platform-year bulk and power should be enough to push him just above Donovan. I project Herrera at a $2.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Herrera will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

PEDRO PAGES (2.166): $1,000,000

The Case: Pages enters arbitration with 818 career PA’s, 22 HR’s and a 75 wRC+ after posting a 65 wRC+ across 211 PA’s in his PY.

Joey Bart (2024, $1.175M salary) creates a ceiling with 785 career PA’s, 24 HR’s and a 93 career wRC+ while posting a 120 wRC+ across 282 PA’s in his PY. Pages falls down closer to Matt Thaiss (2024, $1M salary), whom he holds bulk advantages on and lesser quality disadvantages as compared to Bart.

Current class comp Miguel Amaya (2026, $1.15M proj. salary) has similar career bulk with 876 PA’s and 23 HR’s but holds clear quality advantages with a 96 career wRC+ and 106 PY wRC+, keeping Pages below him. I project Pages at $1M.

Tender Prediction: Pages will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

KYLE LEAHY (2.140): $1,950,000

The Case: Leahy enters arbitration as a starting pitcher after spending the bulk of his career as a relief pitcher. He made 30 starts in his platform season totaling 140 IP with a 3.66 ERA, bringing his career totals to 278.1 IP with a 3.65 ERA across 128 games and 31 starts.

Tyler Wells (2023, $1.9625M salary) followed a very similar path, beginning his career as a full-time reliever before transitioning into a starting role before arbitration. Wells entered arbitration with 279.1 career IP and a 3.96 ERA across 92 games and 43 starts, including 118.2 IP with a 3.64 ERA in his platform year.

There is very little separating the two statistically, with Leahy actually holding the slight career-quality and platform-year bulk advantages, but Wells had already established himself as a starter over two seasons while Leahy has only one full season in the rotation. That distinction is enough to keep Wells slightly ahead, and I project Leahy at a $1.95M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Leahy will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.