Toronto Blue Jays Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Toronto Blue Jays Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 46

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 8

OPTIONS: Straw (Club, $8.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Gage Stanifer, RJ Schreck, Josh Stephan

ERNIE CLEMENT (4.168): $7,500,000 ($2.9M raise)

The Case: Clement totaled 621 PA with 9 HR, 48 RBI, 7 SB and an 80 wRC+ while earning an All-Star selection, though he struggled badly in the second half with a 36 wRC+.

Willi Castro (2024, $3.1M raise) provides the ceiling with advantages in run production and speed. Both were All-Stars with 600+ PA, but Castro holds advantages in run production and speed, while Clement’s second-half collapse and overall offensive quality keep him below Castro’s raise. Alex Verdugo (2023, $2.9M raise) protects Clement from falling below this range after totaling 602 PA with 13 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB and a 100 wRC+.

The current class reinforces that placement. Bryson Stott (2026, $3M proj. raise) totaled 608 PA with 10 HR, 67 RBI, 27 SB and a 102 wRC+, giving him clear run-production, speed and quality advantages over Clement. Brandon Marsh (2026, $2.9M proj. raise) also lands in Clement’s range after an All-Star season with 568 PA, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 11 SB and a 90 wRC+, but similarly cratered in the second half with a 31 wRC+.

Clement’s All-Star selection helps offset the weaker offensive quality, but Castro’s stronger run production and speed keep him above Clement. I project a $2.9M raise, bringing Clement to $7.5M.

Tender Prediction: Clement will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOSE SORIANO (4.121): $5,900,000 ($3.0M raise)

The Case: Soriano threw a career-high 177.a IP across 32 starts with a 3.91 ERA, 12-7 record and 11 quality starts, though his performance dipped after the trade to Toronto and late in the season.

Dean Kremer (2025, $2.8M raise) provides the floor, coming from a previous salary only $50K higher than Soriano’s while Soriano holds advantages in starts, innings, ERA, wins and quality starts.

Jesús Luzardo (2023, $3.05M raise) is the closer statistical comparison, with slight advantages all-around with his 3.58 ERA in 178.2 IP with 17 quality starts. Soriano belongs just below at a $3M raise, bringing his total salary to $5.9M.

Tender Prediction: Soriano will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOSH SMITH (4.113): $3,725,000 ($500k raise)

The Case: Smith totaled 243 PA while spending significant time on the IL and 31 days on optional assignment. Josh Rojas (2023, $525k raise) is the primary comparison after totaling 350 PA with 40 option days. Rojas’ bulk advantage keeps Smith slightly below his raise.

Anthony Volpe (2026, $500k proj. raise) is a useful current-class comparison with nearly identical bulk at 246 PA, 45 option days and an Arb-1 salary within $250K of Smith’s.

Nolan Gorman (2026, $500k proj. raise) also lands in this range after 302 PA with more HR than Smith and Volpe, but 74 option days and a 62 wRC+ offset those advantages. I project Smith for the same $500K raise as Volpe and Gorman, bringing his total salary to $3.725M.

Tender Prediction: Smith will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BOWDEN FRANCIS (3.098): $925,000

The Case: Francis enters arbitration after missing his entire PY with a 3.88 ERA across 204 career IP and 27 starts.

Griffin Canning (2022, $850k salary) also missed his entire PY entering arbitration with almost identical career bulk at 209.1 IP (non-extrapolated 2020), but made 41 starts with a much worse 4.73 ERA.

Francis has less career bulk than Quinn Priester (2026, $900k proj. salary) in the current class but the quality advantage is significant enough to put Francis above him, while Reese Olson (2026, $950k proj. salary) and his additional bulk keeps Francis below the top of this group. I project Francis to earn a $925K Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Francis will be tendered a contract barring any major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

SPENCER ARRIGHETTI (2.166): $1,850,000

The Case: Arrighetti enters arbitration off a weird season that included a trade and multiple optional assignments, finishing with 110.2 platform-year IP to a 4.96 ERA and entering the market with 291 career IP across 60 games (54 starts), 18 quality starts and a 4.79 career ERA.

Edward Cabrera (2024, $1.95M salary) is a pretty spot-on comparison as a fellow Super Two after entering arbitration with 294 career IP across 63 games (61 starts), 12 quality starts and a 4.32 ERA, while his platform year was also abbreviated at 96.1 IP with an almost identical 4.95 ERA. Arrighetti’s 18 career quality starts give him one advantage, but the platform-year option time, including ending the season on option, along with the slight career ERA disadvantage should keep him behind Cabrera.

There is not a ton of precedent for starting pitchers being tendered after ending the season on option, so Toronto could get aggressive with that argument, but I ultimately project Arrighetti slightly below Cabrera at a $1.85M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Arrighetti will be tendered a contract, but I expect the Blue Jays to try to resolve this in a pre-tender fashion because there is very little precedent for starting pitchers entering Arb-1 after finishing their platform year on optional assignment. However, Arrighetti does not have to agree as he is not at risk of being non-tendered. Tender.

LOUIS VARLAND (2.163): $3,200,000

The Case: Varland enters arbitration as a Super Two after entering his platform year with 0 career saves before taking over as a closer and finishing with 35 saves and a 1.27 ERA. He also brings substantial career bulk into the process with 294.1 career IP.

Jason Foley (2024, $3.15M salary) provides the primary historical comparison after entering arbitration with 35 saves and 42 holds. Varland matches Foley’s save total with a more dominant platform season, which should push him slightly above Foley.

Devin Williams (2022, $3.35M salary) provides the ceiling after entering arbitration with 78 career SV+HLD and a 2.03 career ERA. Williams also produced 41 SV+HLD across 60.2 IP with a 1.93 ERA in his platform year. Varland has the career-bulk advantage and better platform-year ERA, but Williams entered with a much more established history of back-end leverage production.

Jacob Latz (2026, $3.05M proj. salary) provides the best current-class comparison after recording 30 SV with a 2.08 ERA in his platform year. Latz enters arbitration with 212.1 career IP, 31 SV and 13 HLD. Varland holds the significant career-bulk advantage along with five more platform-year saves and the dominant quality advantage, putting him above Latz.

Varland fits cleanly above Latz and Foley but below Williams. I project him for a $3.2M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Varland will be tendered a contract. This is a complicated case that could certainly end up in a hearing, and the number of current-class comparisons only adds to the complexity in what should be a very fragile market. Tender.

NATHAN LUKES (2.145): $1,700,000

The Case: Lukes enters arbitration just over the 1,000 career PA mark after totaling 450 PA with 10 HR, 39 RBI and a 101 wRC+ in his platform year. He enters with 1,010 career PA, 23 HR, 116 RBI and a 104 wRC+.

Alex Call (2025, $1.6M salary) provides the primary historical comparison with a very similar career offensive profile. Lukes enters with one more career HR and a three-point advantage in career wRC+, while also carrying more platform-year bulk. Those small career advantages combined with the stronger platform-year workload should push Lukes above Call’s $1.6M salary.

Evan Carter (2026, $1.625M proj. salary) provides the best current-class comparison after totaling 442 PA with 9 HR, 38 RBI and 16 SB in his platform year. Carter enters arbitration with 899 career PA, 24 HR, 90 RBI and 35 SB. The two have nearly identical platform-year counting stats and comparable career power, while their overall bulk is also similar. Lukes, however, holds significant quality advantages with a 101 platform-year wRC+ and 104 career wRC+ compared to Carter’s 75 and 93 marks, respectively. Carter’s similar bulk keeps him close, but the quality gap should keep Lukes clearly ahead.

Lukes fits just above the Call/Carter range, and I project him for a $1.7M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Lukes will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

DAVIS SCHNEIDER (2.138): $1,400,000

The Case: Schneider enters arbitration after a limited PY with only 156 PA’s, 5 HR’s and a 84 wRC+ but he’s still put together solid career numbers with 978 PA’s, 37 HR’s, 113 RBI and a 105 wRC+.

Triston Casas (2025, $1.61M salary) had a limited PY with almost identical career bulk with 952 PA’s but his 45 HR’s, 120 RBI and 119 wRC+ are all better than Schneider. Casas should be above Schneider in this market.

Current class comp Jordan Westburg (2026, $1.275M proj. salary) missed his entire PY and enters with very similar career bulk at 1027 PA’s with 38 HR’s and 127 RBI, Westburg has the quality advantage with a 116 career wRC+ but Schneider actually playing this season should get him above Westburg. Schneider fits above where Westburg ends up, but below Casas, I project him at $1.4M.

Tender Prediction: Schneider will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.