Odds to Win MLB’s 2025 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (September 2025)
Can’t wait to see who wins MLB’s MVP award in 2025? Check out our updated tracker and betting lines for both NL & AL Most Valuable Player.
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When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.
Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.
In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.
After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.
Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware, and it was again Judge and Ohtani who opened up this season as the heavy-favorites to win the awards again.
But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.,
This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?
Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.
Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2025
Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.
2025 American League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | -145 | +300 | 59.18% |
| Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | +100 | +10000 | 50.00% |
When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “what is implied probability?”.
In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.
With -145 odds to win the AL MVP, the sportsbooks are telling us that there is a 59.18% chance that Aaron Judge is going to win the MVP. So basically everyone else should just plan on receiving their participation trophies. That doesn’t, however, impact Cal Raleigh’s chance to win it, as the books give him +100 odds, which has a 50% implied probability of winning.
Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.
MVP races are almost always a fluid thing, but there’s never been a doubt that Judge and Raleigh’s fight for some hardware was going to be legendary. To this point, they’ve delivered, and then some.
Even though Judge missed some time in August on the injured list, he remains the top dog here. He’s got a 166 second-half wRC+ that’s good for eighth in the majors, while also hitting 14 home runs and walking over 21% of the time. Pitchers are terrified of throwing anything hittable to him, but he’s still managed to be one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.
Raleigh’s got Judge beat in home runs and RBI, and his 8.8 fWAR is only 0.4 WAR away from Judge’s to top all of baseball. When you factor in that Raleigh plays a premier defensive position, this race becomes so much closer. Even as we near the end of the season and the games are winding down, this thing is not over yet.
2025 National League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | OPENING ODDS | Implied Probability |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | -10000 | +175 | 96.77% |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | +1400 | +8000 | 5.88% |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | +2200 | +550 | 4.35% |
Compared to the AL award race, the NL one has been much more tame. All year long, Shohei Ohtani has been the favorite, and with time running out for all chasing him, it seems like he’s ready to bring home his fourth MVP Award.
Ohtani’s return to the mound has done nothing but pad his case. Even if he returned to pitching and didn’t perform well, the amount of value he’s provided on offense shot him to the top and he’s not likely to give up that massive lead with the clock ticking.
Ohtani, 31, has put up 7.3 fWAR this year, while hitting 53 home runs, driving in 99, and scoring a whopping 141 runs of his own. His 172 wRC+ is second-best in all of baseball behind Judge, while his fWAR trails only Judge, Raleigh, and Bobby Witt Jr., so need I say more?
Schwarber and Soto are both strictly bringing value to the table with their bats, so the race would’ve been slightly closer if Ohtani didn’t start pitching again. Alas, he did, so here we are.
Schwarber leads the majors with 23 second-half home runs and 60 RBI. He’s been mashing as of late, but that alone is not going to be enough to allow him to leapfrog Ohtani. Home runs are nice, and Schwarber’s in particular are fun to watch, but there’s just not enough in there to overtake one of the most freakishly talented athletes we’ve ever seen.
Soto’s been on his own second-half heater, but similarly to Schwarber, there’s just not enough there. The Mets’ outfielder has 19 second-half home runs with 48 RBI and an MLB-leading 24 stolen bases (?), all while walking over 17% of the time and boasting a 170 wRC+, good for fifth in the league.
No disrespect to Schwarber or Soto, but this race has been over for a while now, and there’s nothing they can do to stop Ohtani and his chase for a fourth trophy.
How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds
When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value on betting on Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.
If there is one play in the AL right now, it is probably Cal Raleigh just because he has the potential to snag that lead back from Judge in the AL MVP race, and the odds have gotten long enough for him to do it that it has become an attractive proposition for a smaller wager that can pay off big.