Top Notes From The Atlanta Braves ZiPS Projections for 2025

The 2024 season for the Atlanta Braves was defined by injuries and disappointment. Now, with the 2025 season approaching, the Braves are looking to reclaim their place atop the baseball world.

For most teams, winning 89 games and making the playoffs would be a step forward, but Atlanta’s expectations are much higher.

Atlanta will look slightly different this season. Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, and Travis d’Arnaud departed in free agency, while Joe Jiménez suffered an injury that could sideline him for the entire season.

Jurickson Profar was the team’s lone major offseason acquisition. Coming off the best season of his career, the Braves hope he can provide an offensive spark that was missed at times last season.

Instead, Atlanta’s key “additions” might come from within, with bounce-back seasons from Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and more. Staying healthy will be the name of the game for the Braves.

One of the best projection systems in baseball is ZiPS, developed by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs over two decades ago. Widely regarded as a premier preseason tool, ZiPS provides valuable insight into team and player expectations. Here is Major League Baseball’s summary of how the system works:

“ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections… no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.”

Late in 2024, Szymborski released the ZiPS projections for the 2025 Braves. There have been some key additions and subtractions since its publishing, so let’s dive into the updated Braves ZiPS projections for the upcoming season.

Braves ZiPS: Position Players

The Braves have consistently boasted one of the best offenses in baseball over the last few years. InIn 2023, they tied the MLB record with 307 home runs, but injuries in 2024 limited their offensive production.

Looking ahead to 2025, ZiPS projects a resurgence for the offense. Atlanta is expected to have five players rank in the top 50 in SLG, wOBA, wRC+. Here are some key takeaways:

• Bounce-back candidates: Austin Riley endured a significant dip in production last season, missing time due to injury. ZiPS projects a big rebound with 29 home runs, an .842 OPS, 131 WRC+, and 4.4 fWar.
  
  Matt Olson (32 HRs, .828 OPS, 127 WRC+, 3.2 fWAR), Michael Harris II (20 HRs, .817 OPS, 124 WRC+, 4.6 fWAR), and Sean Murphy (17 HRs, .759 OPS, 111 WRC+, 3.4 fWAR) are also projected to improve significantly in 2025.

• Ronald Acuña Jr returns to form: The 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr is projected to bounce back from his second major knee injury much better than the first time.
  
  ZiPS projects Acuña Jr to appear in 121 games, slashing .294/.393/.526 with 26 home runs, a 154 WRC+, and a team-best 5.1 fWar. Given his talent and past experience in a similar rehab, these projections seem very attainable, if not conservative for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr.

• Jurickson Profar adds stability to a deep lineup: One of the reasons I love the Profar signing is his bat-to-ball skills. ZiPS projects an 11.3% walk rate and a 16.0% strikeout rate, along with a .743 OPS, 110 wRC+, and 1.4 fWAR.
  
  Manager Brian Snitker can deploy Jurickson Profar in multiple ways, whether hitting leadoff until Acuña Jr returns, batting second, or slotting him lower in the lineup, that will all help extend a deep lineup even further.

• Nacho Alvarez Jr can make a huge leap: Last season, Nacho Alvarez Jr got a small taste in the big leagues, but it was one to forget about slashing .100/.156/.100 and a .256 OPS in 32 plate appearances.
  
  With shortstop a question mark, ZiPS projects Alvarez to appear in 125 games, slashing .249/.331/.341 with a .672 OPS and a 92 WRC+. With a career minor league slash line of .284/.400/.396 and a .796 OPS, these projections seem extremely attainable for the rookie.

• Drake Baldwin is the next big Braves prospect: Like many other Braves players before him, Baldwin has risen rapidly through the minors. Recently, FanGraphs listed Baldwin as their 11th ranked prospect. Not in the Braves organization, but in all of baseball. Drake Baldwin is projected to appear in 105 games in his rookie season with a .702 OPS and a 2.0 fWAR.

Braves ZiPS: Pitching Staff

The consistency doesn’t end with the offense, as the Braves field one of MLB’s top pitching staffs over the last few years as well. With the departures of Max Fried and Charlie Morton from the starting rotation and Spencer Strider returning from major injury, it’s fair to question if they can sustain their success. ZiPS, however, thinks otherwise:

• Chris Sale and Spencer Strider are legitimate aces: That statement should come as no surprise, but one I feel needs to be reiterated. There is a belief that Sale’s numbers may take a dip in 2025, citing injury history and age.
  
  While fair concerns, ZiPS projects big things from the current NL Cy Young award winner with a 2.89 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, and an 11.03 K/9, some of the best numbers among all starters.
  
  Spencer Strider, coming off major injury, is only projected to start 22 games as he is slowly worked back into form. However, his projected 1.08 WHIP is ranked 7th, 2.96 FIP ranked 5th, and his 12.17 K/9 is the best in baseball.

• Spencer Schwellenbach is here to stay: Schwellenbach had a breakout campaign in 2024 and now will be relied on to be a major contributor in 2025. He is projected to have the most starts of any Braves pitcher this year at 27. Combined with his projected 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, we should see Spencer Schwellenbach’s breakout from 2024 continue into this season.

• ZiPS remains optimistic on Reynaldo López: López was another breakout pitcher that was an after thought even upon signing a three-year, $26 million contract with Atlanta.
  
  In 2025, he is projected to suffer from some regression as his 3.20 ERA, 9.67 K/9, and 2.3 fWAR are all worse than his 2024 numbers. Even with some decline, these are top-30 numbers that the Braves would gladly accept.

• Starting pitching depth will be crucial: One of the first things I noticed when looking at the Braves pitching staff’s ZiPS was that 15 players were projected 19 or more starts.
  
  While we know this will not be the case, it signifies Atlanta’s emphasis on starting pitching depth. Of note, Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver are projected to have more starts (26) than all pitchers except Schwellenbach. While neither of their ERA (4.16, 4.11) or FIP (4.06, 4.17) are flashy, they project to provide valuable innings. for the Braves this season.

• The bullpen will be just fine: Despite losing A.J. Minter and Joe Jiménez, ZiPS remains optimistic about the Braves’ bullpen. ZiPS projects closer Raisel Iglesias to put up another solid season with 32 saves, a 2.83 ERA, and a 3.04 FIP.
  
  Relievers Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson, and Daysbel Hernández are all projected to post sub-4.00 ERAs and K/9 rates above 10.
  
  While there are depth concerns, Atlanta has a history of successfully addressing bullpen needs during the season, whether in-house or externally.

Braves ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Overall, ZiPS projects the Atlanta Braves to be the team everyone expects them to be. Atlanta has four starters and three position players projected in the top 50 in fWAR for each category.

The NL East will be a tough battle – both the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins are slowly improving, the New York Mets adding Juan Soto, and the Philadelphia Phillies fresh off dethroning Atlanta for the division title.

The season will only gets tougher when you consider that the Los Angeles Dodgers will likely be waiting in the postseason.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that the Braves will fight to the end. Despite last season’s injuries, they still found a way to reach the playoffs. Now with a healthy and hungry team, ZiPS agrees: Atlanta should be one of the favorites to bring home a World Series title in 2025.