Do the Braves Need To Do More Than Just Run It Back?

The Atlanta Braves kicked off the MLB offseason by trading Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels for Griffin Canning (who they subsequently non-tendered). After what clearly can be called a salary-saving move, Braves fans were excited about what the team would do next.

Much to their disappointment, significant upgrades have yet to materialize for the Braves. However, the team as constructed is already set to compete for another World Series.

According to BetMGM, the Braves have the third-best odds to win it all in 2025. Yes, this is after the Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Juan Soto acquisitions by other teams. The Atlanta Braves have the firepower to compete with anyone in MLB.

So, what exactly are the Braves missing? Do they need to make a splash? Is it time to panic? Let’s take a deep breath and dive into it.

Atlanta’s Moves Thus Far

First off, let me say that the offseason is still extremely young. The Winter Meetings just wrapped up and dominos are just beginning to fall. 

The Braves’ biggest move so far—trading away Soler—was followed by a few additions: Nick Allen (SS), Connor Gillispie (RHP), and Bryan De La Cruz (OF). These moves are nothing more than organizational depth additions, leaving fans clamoring for more.

Atlanta has also seen a handful of players walk out the door. Fried recently signed the richest left-handed pitcher contract in MLB history with the New York Yankees. Travis d’Arnaud signed with the Angels. Charlie Morton and A.J. Minter are currently free agents. 

The Braves’ decisions thus far seem aimed at cutting costs to add financial flexibility for not only the rest of the offseason but also during the season. Understandably, fans are anxious as other teams have spent big or completed big splashes via trade.

Are the Braves Good Enough as Constructed?

It is easy to see the shiny new toy and forget what you already have. Braves fans have to remember that Atlanta has a young core that is, most importantly, locked in for the future. 

Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr, and Michael Harris II form a core with an average age of 27 years old.

The only significant players slated for roles on the Opening Day roster not signed through 2027 are Marcell Ozuna (34 years old) and Chris Sale (35 years old). Few teams boast such a combination of depth and youth.

Adding some talent in a few key areas would help solidify the Braves’ roster heading into 2025. However, the biggest need for this team is health. After a 2024 season plagued by injuries, staying healthy could be the best way for Atlanta to improve.

Starting Pitching

With Fried now in pinstripes, Strider rehabbing, and Morton currently a free agent, there will be a lot of pressure for guys like Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López to repeat their 2024 success. Sale, coming off a Cy Young Award, is primed to be the ace of the staff.

After what we saw heading into the playoffs last season, the Braves will need to monitor Sale’s innings to ensure he stays healthy throughout the entire 2025 season. 

With uncertainty at the starting pitcher position, Atlanta needs to develop a plan for the rotation heading into 2025. As usual, looking in-house for reliable options is always the Braves’ primary choice.

One option they may count on is Grant Holmes. The righty appeared in 26 games, starting seven, and finished the 2024 season with a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.20 FIP, and 4.67 K/BB.

Digging a little deeper, Holmes finished in the 90th percentile in walk rate, the 92nd percentile in whiff rate, and the 97th percentile in chase rate. Those are impressive for the 28-year-old’s first stint in the big leagues.

Another option Atlanta can lean on is 2023 NL All-Star Bryce Elder. After finishing his All-Star season 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.42 FIP, and 2.03 K/BB, Elder saw his numbers take a serious hit in 2024. He struggled to take control of a starting spot, only appearing in 10 games, finishing 2-5 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.631 WHIP.

Elder has yet to prove to be an every-five-day starter, but with 50 MLB starts under his belt across three seasons, he may get more chances than Braves fans would like.

AJ Smith-Shawver had a meteoric rise in 2023, starting out in High-A and ending the year with five big league appearances under his belt. While he did struggle with a 4.26 ERA and 6.69 FIP in his short stint in Atlanta that year, Braves fans were still excited for the 20-year-old’s future.

Given the depth of Atlanta’s starting rotation in 2024, Smith-Shawver only appeared in one game, tossing 4.1 innings of three-hit ball, allowing zero runs, four strikeouts and two walks. In Triple-A, he seemed to struggle with a 4.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 5.62 FIP. Those are hardly numbers you want to see from a potential starter in the big leagues.

Still only 22 and pitching for a team in need of talent in the rotation, Smith-Shawver will need to improve on those numbers if he wants to secure a spot in the 2025 rotation.

Hurston Waldrep was the Braves’ first-round pick in 2023 coming off a spectacular season with the Florida Gators. Already 22 and sporting a 65-grade fastball and splitter, he spent the majority of 2024 between Double-A and Triple-A.

In Double-A, Waldrep sported a 3.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, and 8.76 K/9 across nine starts. In Triple-A, he recorded eight starts with a 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.19 FIP, and 9.68 K/9. This earned him two appearances with the MLB team.

Those appearances, however, were quite forgettable. Across seven innings, he allowed 13 runs on nine hits, walking eight and only striking out three.

There is no doubt better days are ahead for Waldrep, but the young prospect will need to hone in on the talent he displayed throughout college and the minor leagues if he wants to earn a regular role in the Braves rotation.

So where does that leave us? With all four in-house options full of question marks and over 300 innings gone in free agency, the need for another reliable starter is apparent. 

With Fried, Snell, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino off the board, the free agent market is slowly thinning out. I do not believe Atlanta is in the market for Corbin Burnes, and as much as I believe it would be a great fit for both parties, Roki Sasaki also seems to be out of the realm of possibility. 

Walker Buehler would be an ideal fit. Most likely looking for a short-term prove-it deal, the righty is coming off an injury-plagued down season with a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP, but he showed the world his ceiling in the playoffs.

Nick Pivetta, 31 years old, may be looking for a multi-year deal, but coming off a 4.14 ERA, 4.07 WHIP, and 1.13 WHIP season, it’s one that would be more affordable.

Cal Quantrill, Andrew Heaney, Morton, and even Max Scherzer are lower-end targets for a one-year deal that could provide a bridge for the rotation until some of the prospects are ready.

The trade market is also one Alex Anthopoulos can explore. According to Bob Nightengale, Atlanta was a finalist for Garrett Crochet, something nobody knew until after the fact.

Assuming this is true, the Braves could explore trades for pitchers rumored to be on the market such as Luis Castillo or Jesús Luzardo, though a major trade would shock Braves fans.

Corner Outfield

Heading into Opening Day 2024, Braves fans felt extreme confidence in the outfield.

Things quickly took a turn for the worse as Ronald Acuña Jr went down with another season-ending injury, Michael Harris II missed a significant amount of time, and Jarred Kelenic failed to live up to any promise he may have had.

In fact, Atlanta finished the season with Adam Duvall, Ramón Laureano, and Jorge Soler all playing a significant amount of outfield down the stretch.

Now, heading into a new season, there are still question marks in the outfield. Center field is set with Harris and the DH role with Ozuna. The question marks lie in the corners.

Acuña is one of the best right fielders in the game, but his recovery timeline coming off another ACL injury creates uncertainty.

Kelenic is currently slated for another crack at securing a starting role in the outfield. After a promising first half to 2024, slashing .255/.303/.418 with a .721 OPS, he crashed back to earth in the second half of the season, slashing .182/.252/.343 with a .595 OPS. To state it bluntly, that just is not good enough for the Braves.

This past week, Atlanta signed former NL East foe Bryan De La Cruz to a one-year non-guaranteed deal. A right-handed outfielder with pop, De La Cruz was dealt from the Marlins to the Pirates ahead of the 2024 trade deadline. He ended the season as one of the worst hitters in the major leagues.

Now with a fresh start, De La Cruz will look to new Braves hitting coach Tim Hyers to help him find his 2022 self; he slashed .252/.294/.432 with a .725 OPS that year.

Still, as currently constructed, the Braves have too many question marks in the outfield to not look for additional help.

Juan Soto is now in Queens, but that was never a fight the Braves were in. Tyler O’Neill and Michael Conforto, two free agents I believed could get looks from Atlanta, are now with other teams as well.

Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander headline the remaining free agent outfielders, but with so many suitors, their price tags may just be a touch too high for Anthopoulos. The remaining free agent outfielders are clearly a step down.

Joc Pederson is a fan favorite Atlanta fans would welcome back with open arms. The impact he had for the Braves in 2021 still resonates with fans to this day.

Nearly 33, Pederson is better suited to be an everyday DH, but he could provide a spark from the left side of the plate that the Braves need. Outfield defense may take a hit, but Harris in center field can cover up for some of Pederson’s deficiencies.

Alex Verdugo could also fill that same void. Coming off a disappointing season with the Yankees, the left-handed outfielder has a career .272/.328/.414 slash line and a .742 OPS.

Verdugo still boasted an 88th-percentile strikeout rate, 93rd-percentile whiff rate, and 96th-percentile squared-up rate in 2024, according to Baseball Savant. After finishing the 2024 season with the seventh-most strikeouts in MLB, the Braves would welcome Verdugo’s bat-to-ball skills.

A short-term deal for a player like Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, or Jesse Winker is also not off the table. But would the Braves rely on striking gold yet again?

The trade market is another path they could take to fill this void. Atlanta has a stockpile of young pitching prospects to dangle in trade talks. While a blockbuster for, say, Luis Robert Jr. seems unlikely, other midseason impact additions are possible, as we have seen the past few years.

Shortstop

Atlanta’s infield is among MLB’s best, however, there is one glaring concern: shortstop.

Coming off an All-Star season in 2023, Orlando Arcia disappointed at the plate in 2024. His .218/.271/.354 slash line and .625 OPS created a void at the end of the Braves lineup that only grew larger as key players continued to go down with injury.

Simply put, Arcia needed to step up at the plate, and he failed.

Arcia still gives Atlanta stellar defense, finishing 2024 in the 87th percentile in Outs Above Average. Amongst a fully healthy lineup, his glove can give the Braves enough at shortstop to make up for the lack of offense. Yet, the 2024 season was full of examples that health is far from guaranteed.

As Arcia enters his age-30 season, his diminishing returns on offense spark the potential need for an upgrade at shortstop.

The in-house option that comes to mind here is Ignacio “Nacho” Alvarez Jr. 

Nacho, the Braves’ fourth-ranked prospect and highest-ranked position player according to MLB.com, received a taste of the big leagues in 2024 when Atlanta tried to provide a spark to the struggling offense.

This, however, was a failed experiment as Alvarez recorded a .100/.156/.256 slash line with only three hits, 10 strikeouts, and zero walks across 32 plate appearances. 

Yes, he struggled, but diving into his minor league numbers shows the promise he may soon display with the Braves.

Across three seasons in the minor leagues since being a fifth-round selection from Riverside City College, Alvarez has slashed .284/.400/.396 with a .796 OPS. The power numbers do not pop off the page, but his .284 batting average and .400 on-base percentage are something the Braves could certainly build upon.

Willy Adames was the biggest fish in the SS free agent market, but he quickly signed a seven-year, $182M deal with the San Francisco Giants. This is not a deal you would see Atlanta in the market for. Other available free agents include Enrique Hernandez and Paul DeJong. 

The one intriguing piece I have an interest in is Ha-Seong Kim. Kim is a utility infielder, having spent 79 games at third, 127 games at second, and 307 games at short throughout his MLB career. He also has a Gold Glove under his belt from 2023.

Most importantly, Kim could provide the spark on offense the Braves need. Since 2022, he has outperformed Arcia in most metrics, specifically in the all-important metric of just simply getting on base.

Kim would require a multi-year deal. With Arcia set to make $2M for one more year, the Braves may hesitate to pay two shortstops in 2025. Yet, since Kim is set to miss a portion of the 2025 season after undergoing shoulder surgery in October, it could make sense to have both on the roster.

Can Atlanta survive with Arcia at shortstop for 2025? My answer to this question is yes, but my hope would be that if the Braves are sticking with Arcia, it means they have upgraded elsewhere.

Take a Deep Breath

While other teams are making moves out of necessity, the Braves have positioned themselves with a roster that is already built to compete. Health is a concern, and upgrades can certainly help solidify the roster, but the core of this team is one of the league’s best.

Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta Braves have earned the benefit of the doubt based on their recent history of success. Their goal is always to look for ways to improve the roster. A slow start to the offseason and a lack of a “splash” so far should not draw any concerns from Braves fans.

There will be more moves, both this offseason and throughout the season as well. Have patience Braves fans, and be ready for a highly competitive 2025 campaign.