Will Matt Olson Return to MVP Form for the Braves in 2025?

After what was seen as a down year for Matt Olson, the Atlanta Braves first-baseman looks to return to MVP-caliber form.

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 25: Matt Olson #28 of Atlanta Braves celebrates after hitting a home run in the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on August 25, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)

Matt Olson had a very productive season in 2024, accumulating 148 hits, 29 home runs, 98 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 118. For most MLB players, this would be a season to hang their hat on.

But Matt Olson isn’t just any player.

Olson’s 2024 season was viewed by many as a down year for the left-handed slugger. After an All-Star season in 2023, in which he won a Silver Slugger and finished fourth in the MVP race, his numbers noticeably declined in 2024 slashing .247/.333/.457 with an OPS of .790. These numbers are solid, but for Olson these fall below his usual expectations.

Like many other Atlanta Braves players, Olson is looking to bounce back heading into the 2025 season.

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Who Is Matt Olson?

Matt Olson hails from Lilburn, GA, a suburb of Atlanta. After breaking multiple Parkview High School and Gwinnett County records, some previously held by former major leaguer Jeff Francoeur, he decided to forgo his college commitment to Vanderbilt when he was selected in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft by the Oakland Athletics.

After nearly five seasons in the minor leagues, Olson was called up to the big leagues in 2016. During his six seasons with Oakland, he posted a career slash line of .252/.348/.511, an .859 OPS, and hit 142 home runs. This includes an All-Star appearance and winning two Gold Glove awards.

The slugger was a key contributor to the brief successes the Oakland Athletics had in the late 2010s.

The Braves, meanwhile, had their own franchise first baseman in Freddie Freeman. However, after winning the World Series in 2021, Atlanta and Freeman were unable to agree on a contract (still a sore subject for Braves fans).

Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos acted quickly to secure the team’s future at first base. On March 14, 2022, Atlanta acquired Matt Olson from the Athletics and promptly signed him to a long-term extension, bringing him back home.

Since becoming a Brave, Olson has accumulated impressive stats: 468 hits, 117 home runs, 340 RBIs, and an .862 OPS. Arguably the most important stat of them all is the fact that he has yet to miss a single game. Yes, you read that correctly. Matt Olson has played in every single game for the Atlanta Braves since 2022. That kind of durability is invaluable.

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What Happened in 2024?

I want to reiterate that Matt Olson’s 2024 season was still a good one. However, given his high standards, the MVP-caliber first baseman is eager to return to that elite level.

Looking at some of his batted-ball data reveals why there was a slight dip in production in 2024 from previous seasons:

xSLGWRC+IsoExit Velo (mph)Barrel %Hard Hit %Weak Contact %
2022.467121.23792.913.6%50.9%2.0%
2023.558161.32193.716.4%55.5%1.8%
2024.448117.21091.512.4%47.4%3.7%

Simply put, Matt Olson didn’t find his barrel as frequently in 2024, resulting in weaker contact.

Braves fans didn’t need to see advanced metrics to know Olson’s power wasn’t the same as in previous seasons. A lower barrel rate, coupled with a lower hard-hit rate and slower average exit velocity, tells the story of his season.

Some of these differences may not seem drastic, but over the course of an entire season it can mean the difference between a home run and a routine fly ball. For a power hitter expected to produce extra-base hits, drive in baserunners, and hit home runs, hitting the ball hard and often is key.

It sounds simple, right? In theory, yes. In practice, baseball is a cruel game where being successful 30% of the time warrants praise.

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Slumps happen to all players, but what separates stars from the rest is how they respond. A positive for Olson is how well he adjusted after the All-Star break.

BAOBPSLGOPSWRC+ISOK%
First Half.229.309.405.71497.17627.4%
Second Half.271.366.530.896144.25921.3%

By all accounts, Olson suffered an early-season slump but corrected course in the second half of the season. If history is any indicator, expect Matt Olson’s 2025 numbers to improve.

What to Expect in 2025?

At his best, Matt Olson is one of the premier first basemen in MLB and a real MVP candidate. At his worst, from what we have seen, he is still a top-10 player at his position. Even in a “down” year, he is still very, very good.

The 2024 Atlanta Braves were plagued with injuries. With Ronald Acuña Jr sidelined for most of the season and key players like Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies missing significant time, the Atlanta lineup was in flux.

At times it felt like every game came down to either Matt Olson or Marcell Ozuna to carry the offense. This is immense pressure for any hitter over the course of a season.

Heading into 2025, the Braves expect to have a fully healthy lineup once Acuña Jr returns in early May, along with the addition of Jurickson Profar. This should provide much-needed depth to allow Matt Olson to thrive once again at the heart of a deep lineup.

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And thrive he will. The 2025 season promises to be an exciting one for Braves fans. Buckle up and get ready to watch Matt Olson launch baseballs into the Chop House early and often.