The Braves Have a Lot Riding on Spencer Schwellenbach

Amid a tumultuous 2024 season for the Atlanta Braves, one rookie in particular emerged as a huge bright spot: Spencer Schwellenbach.

Rated as the organization’s third-best pitching prospect by MLB Pipeline entering the 2024 season, Schwellenbach was an afterthought to crack the rotation in 2024. With seemingly one spot up for grabs, he was behind Reynaldo López, Bryce Elder, and fellow prospect AJ Smith-Shawver in the pecking order.

That changed when Spencer Strider’s injury left a hole in the rotation and a need for starting pitching help quickly became apparent. Receiving the first start of his MLB career on May 29, Schwellenbach seized the opportunity and never looked back, finishing the year with an 8-7 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.29 FIP across 21 games.

Heading into 2025, Spencer Schwellenbach is poised to play a pivotal role in the Braves’ rotation. Let’s dive into why.

The Braves Are Losing a Lot of Innings in Free Agency

Long-time Braves starter Max Fried is now a New York Yankee. Atlanta fans are used to seeing recent hometown heroes walk once they hit the market, and this situation was no different. Fried accounted for 29 starts and 174.1 innings in 2024.

Charlie Morton recently stated his intent to pitch again in 2025. But he’s 41 years old, and there’s no certainty GM Alex Anthopoulos will meet his contract demands.

Morton accounted for 30 starts and 165.1 innings in 2024. The Braves certainly could use his services again, but only if the price is right.

Altogether, that’s over 330 innings potentially walking out the door in free agency. Schwellenbach, having started 21 games in 2024, will likely be asked to increase his workload and approach 30 starts for the first time in his career. That’s a tall order for the young pitcher, but one I’m confident he will gladly accept.

Injury Questions All Over the Rotation

When healthy, the headliner of the Braves rotation is Strider. However, he underwent a second UCL surgery in 2024, and the team has made it clear they will prioritize his long-term health and won’t rush him back.

Even when Strider does return, it’s difficult to predict how effective he’ll be throughout the 2025 season. This puts additional pressure on pitchers like Schwellenbach to step up and fill the void once again.

I would be remiss not to mention Chris Sale under the injury category. Sale exceeded expectations in 2024, starting more than 20 games for the first time since 2019 on his way to winning the NL Cy Young Award.

While he will be a key piece in the starting rotation again in 2025, his durability remains a concern. A late-season injury just before the playoffs reignited the concerns many had at the time of Sale’s acquisition. It will be crucial for the Braves to manage his workload as he enters his age-36 season.

With Fried and Morton free agents, Strider recovering from injury, and Sale needing to manage his workload throughout the year, Schwellenbach and López will be critical to stabilizing the rotation in 2025.

The Bryce Elder Effect

I hate to make this comparison, but it needs to be mentioned. Elder’s 2023 season is a cautionary tale we must be aware of with rookie pitchers.

In his first season as a mainstay in the rotation, Elder put up a 12-4 record with a 3.81 ERA and 1.277 WHIP across 31 games, being named a 2023 NL All-Star.

On the surface, his numbers looked incredible. However, when you look at the splits, it was clear the first half of the year was a facade:

The reality of Bryce Elder is that he is a career 4.17 ERA and 1.33 WHIP pitcher. He can be a dependable innings eater, and while that certainly has a role in MLB, he lacks the ability to anchor a starting rotation. Spencer Schwellenbach, I believe, has the potential to be so much more.

Across two seasons in the minor leagues, Schwellenbach recorded a 2.98 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Elder, for comparison, across four minor league seasons has a 3.78 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

Furthermore, when you look at the splits from Schwellenbach’s first MLB season, a different picture starts to emerge:

As the year progressed, Schwellenbach performed better. He became one of the more consistent pitchers in the rotation by year’s end, an impressive feat for a rookie sharing a rotation with Max Fried and Chris Sale.

To me, the difference is clear: Schwellenbach has the potential to develop into a cornerstone at the top of the rotation.

Schwellenbach Is Vital to Braves’ Success in 2025

The Braves’ rotation faces significant uncertainty heading into 2025. Will Morton leave in free agency? When will Strider return? Can Sale and López replicate their 2024 success?

Even Schwellenbach has question marks. After all, this will be the first time in his career he is reporting to spring training with, presumably, a secured spot in the rotation.

Alex Anthopoulos will certainly look into the trade and free agent markets for help this offseason, but the Braves will still lean heavily on internal options. For Spencer Schwellenbach, this means he will be expected to deliver the same consistency and spark he did last season. It will be a new and exciting challenge for the 24-year-old.