Odds to Win MLB’s 2025 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (August 2025)

When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.

After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.

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MVP Odds To Start the 2025 Season

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware, and it was again Judge and Ohtani who opened up this season as the heavy-favorites to win the awards again.

But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.,

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2025

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2025 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “What is implied probability?”.

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

With -200 odds to win the AL MVP, the sportsbooks are telling us that there is a 66.67% chance that Aaron Judge is going to win the MVP. So basically everyone else should just plan on receiving their participation trophies. That doesn’t, however, impact Cal Raleigh’s chance to win it, as the books give him +145 odds, which has a 40.82% implied probability of winning.

Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

The beautiful thing about an MVP race, is that it is a fluid thing. Both Raleigh and Judge are a hot and/or cold streak – or even a long-term injury – away from being overtaken in the race by the other player. You just never know what’s going to end up happening in any given month.

2025 National League MVP Odds

Fortunately for Shohei Ohtani, neither Judge nor Raleigh won’t be blocking him from taking home any trophies this year. The race is tight as ever over in the AL, but in the NL, Ohtani’s odds have only improved from Opening Day to now. The gap between Ohtani and PCA is a larger one than Judge’s and Raleigh’s, which says a lot about the season Ohtani’s having and the insane race happening in the American League.

Compared to the AL, the race is more open in the NL, but the field is starting to get slightly slimmer and the award seems to be Ohtani’s to lose. A few weeks ago, five players all had odds at +1200 or better to win the award. After having only two for weeks, Kyle Schwarber’s hot bat has re-entered the fray, so we’re up to three.

AL MVP Odds: American League Favorites

Narrowing in our focus to the favorites to win the AL MVP in the MLB betting futures right now, what you will find is that there are few players who could find a narrative that leads them to upset Aaron Judge, but the road will be very long to get there.

For a while, it seemed like Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals could make a run at this one this time around. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is also a name to monitor. But at the end of the day, there’s simply no way one of Judge or Raleigh, who’s having the best offensive season from a catcher of all-time right before our eyes, doesn’t win the award.

Simply put, we’re looking at two of the top talents in the game right now going head-to-head, and there’s nothing quite like it. Judge briefly lost his slim lead in the betting odds this past week, but he’s returned to the top of the leaderboards. It’s true that he’s currently on the injured list, but the odds are having a hard time giving up on Judge’s chances to bring home some hardware.

Big-Time Dark Horses for AL MVP in 2025

Outside of “the big two” in the AL, there’s not much hope for anybody else to claw themselves back into the race unless something drastic happens.

Even still, the amount of sheer talent we’re dealing with here is off the charts. Skubal looks like he’s going to sail his way right back to another Cy Young Award, which in itself should warrant at least some MVP consideration.

Then there’s Witt, who hasn’t quite performed up to expectations this year but remains an elite ballplayer. Just because he’s not knocking your socks off for a different reason every night doesn’t mean he’s not still one of the best players in the league. In fact, he’s still fourth in the AL with 5.0 fWAR, which is comfortably higher than the likes of many other star-caliber players in the AL.

NL MVP Odds: National League Favorites

The NL MVP race has been wide open for a while now, but a certain three-time MVP is starting to pull away from the field. Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite, but there are a few players who are all very tight based on the current odds, as plenty of stars have gotten off to fast starts to begin the 2025.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is easily Ohtani’s biggest threat, as he’s turned himself into one of baseball’s elite power hitters to go along with a glove that’s got him looking like one of the greatest to ever do it. PCA has Ohtani topped in the fWAR department by 0.8 wins right now, and it’s hard to look at their numbers side-by-side and outright determine one player is a shoo-in while the other’s on the outside looking in.

Don’t sleep on that Schwarber fella either, though. He’s made up some significant ground over the past month or so, and is now at the very least closing in on PCA in the odds. It’s extremely unlikely that anyone, including PCA, leapfrogs Ohtani by season’s end, but Schwarber is certainly making things interesting.

Is Manny Machado the Best Dark Horse Bet for NL MVP?

As we continue to update this piece, the list of “favorites” has grown significantly smaller, while the players who used to be favorites are pushed down to the “dark horse” category. As of right now, there are three players who could conceivably make a run at the NL MVP with the rest falling into the latter group.

Manny Machado has the highest non-favorites odds to win the award right now. Even if it doesn’t feel like he’s got what it takes to jump any further up the leaderboards, he’s still having a special (yet somehow underrated) season on the San Diego Padres.

Machado is right around the top-15 in all of baseball in RBI, batting average, SLG, wRC+, and fWAR on the season. He’s also hitting .344 with a 177 wRC+ in the second half so far, so he’s been surging as of late.

In a world where Judge, Raleigh, Ohtani, PCA, and even Soto are dominating the headlines, it’s easy for a player like Machado to get swept under the rug, but don’t let other talented players make you forget about ones like this.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value on betting on Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.

If there is one play in the AL right now, it is probably Cal Raleigh just because he has the potential to snag that lead back from Judge in the AL MVP race, and the odds have gotten long enough for him to do it that it has become an attractive proposition for a smaller wager that can pay off big.