Odds to Win MLB’s 2025 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines

When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.

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MVP Odds To Start the 2025 Season

After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware, and it was again Judge and Ohtani who opened up this season as the heavy-favorites to win the awards again.

But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.,

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2025

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2025 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “What is implied probability?”.

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

With -1600 odds to win the AL MVP, the sportsbooks are telling us that there is a 94.12% chance that Aaron Judge is going to win the MVP. That doesn’t, however, impact Bobby Witt Jr.’s chance to win it, as the books give him +1200 odds, which has a 7.69% implied probability of winning.

Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, its is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

The beautiful thing about an MVP race, is that it is a fluid thing. If Judge hits .095 in the month of June (unlikely but you never know), Witt might hit .450 and tilt the odds of the MVP race. That is why you might find value in Witt right now, when Judge has gotten off to such a fast start that Witt’s preseason odds of +475 have more than doubled.

2025 National League MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani’s odds have remained nearly the same from Opening Day until now, as he has not advanced out to a big lead in the race like Judge, but still remains the favorite based on the NL MVP odds.

Compared to the American League, the race is way more wide-open in the National League, with five players all having odds at +500 or better to win the award. That’s a stark difference from Judge’s AL, where there is only one other contender within even +5000 odds of winning the award.

AL MVP Odds: American League Favorites

Narrowing in our focus to the top four contenders to win the AL MVP in the MLB betting futures right now, what you will find is a few players who could find a narrative that leads them to upset Aaron Judge, but the road will be very long to get there.

Bobby Witt Jr. made a valiant effort to beat Judge in last year’s MVP race with a 10-win season, yet came up just short. Witt is currently trailing Judge by 1.3 wins in the fWAR department, which is a wide margin for 40+ games, but one that can be narrowed over the next 120.

Judge is probably going to win the award, the odds reflect that, but it is too early to count out a 24-year-old superstar like Witt. If Judge falls back to the pack a little bit, and Witt takes off like a rocket-ship, you never know what can happen.

On the other hand, it is harder to believe that Alex Bregman or Cal Raleigh will be able to compete with Judge in the stat department, but a bet on either of these players is a bet on their leadership and importance to their respective clubs.

Cal Raleigh is the leader of the Mariners pitching staff, and is currently on pace to hit 48 home runs. If he clears even 45 bombs and leads the Mariners to an AL West title, there could be a case to made for Raleigh to be the MVP. Same goes from Bregman leading the Red Sox to the playoffs in his first year with the club on a monster contract.

Betting on someone other than Witt or Judge to win the AL MVP this year is playing the lottery. Grab a ticket of someone you’d like to follow, and no that there is a better than not chance that the ticket is not one you will be cashing in, so be cautious investing too heavily here.

Big-Time Dark Horses for AL MVP in 2025

Remember what we said at the end of the section on the betting favorites to win the AL MVP?

Unless it is a bet for Judge or Witt, any player you wager on in the American League is a lottery ticket. Some tickets have a better chance of cashing in than others, so if you are going to sprinkle anything on a dark horse, make sure you find one that can race.

For example, right now, Spencer Torkelson has +6600 odds to win the AL MVP. While Torkelson has gotten off to a great start, having hit 10 home runs by the quarter-mark of the season, that does not necessarily make him a better bet than some guys who currently face longer odds to win.

At the end of the season, 30 BBWAA members vote on each of these awards, and the criteria to earn a vote is largely based on which player racks up the best stats. Particularly, who has the most WAR tends to favor heavily on who voters will pick in the end.

Torkelson even being in the race is a great story, but he has to thread such a specific needle to win this award that I can’t believe he would ever actually get there.

Gunnar Henderson has a better chance of racking up WAR as a shortstop. The same really goes for Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Jose Ramirez, yet they all face longer odds than Torkelson to win the award right now.

The moral of the story might be to stay away from buying into the Tork-train for an improbable run to winning the AL MVP, but if you are a Tigers fan, knock yourself out.

NL MVP Odds: National League Favorites

The NL MVP race is wide open right now. Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite, but there are five players who all are very tight based on the current odds, as plenty of stars have gotten off to fast starts to begin the 2025.

So far, no one has been hotter than Pete Alonso in the National League, which was evident when he took home the first player of the month award for his work in March and April to start the year.

Alonso is the only other hitter besides Ohtani who still has an OPS over 1.000. He is also leading the league in RBIs (36), doubles (15), and on-base percentage (.428).

While his start to the season has been amazing, it is unlikely that Alonso will stay near the top of this MVP race for a few different reasons. The first is the fact that he is a slugging first baseman, and not one who is heralded for his glove. This means it is less likely that he will continue to rack up the most WAR compared to other stars who are doing it on both sides at more premium positions.

Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Corbin Carroll are all strong defensive outfielders who will see their respective WAR totals climb all year thanks to their gloves. They are also all leading their respective teams, where they are looking like the clear best player on contenders.

Alonso has been the best player on the Mets so far this season, but Francisco Lindor has been very close, and Juan Soto still has the potential to be the leading offensive force at any time. There are better Mets to wager on right now to win the NL MVP, with the best bet being the same dark horse that nearly took the award last year.

Is Francisco Lindor the Best Dark Horse Bet for NL MVP?

Last year, Francisco Lindor finished as the runner-up to win the NL MVP as he put the Mets on his back and carried them to the playoffs with an outstanding finish to the 2025 season. This season, Lindor seems to have more help, with the strong start to the season from Alonso, and the man providing him protection in the lineup, Juan Soto.

Still, it is Lindor who sets the table and bats leadoff for the Mets, and he is also the one who is the captain of their defense from the shortstop position. Through the first quarter of the season, Lindor has still looked like the Mets’ best player, and yet he faces the longest odds to win the NL MVP. If there is a Met to bet on to win the NL MVP, it’s Lindor as the value is really good at +2500.

Jackson Merrill is sitting at that same spot, despite the fact that he has only played 15 games due to a hamstring injury. This is a testament to how well he has played in his limited time and the type of season he is capable of having. This could be the best center fielder in baseball, and that makes him a fun flier to follow in this NL MVP race.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value on betting on Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.

If there is one play in the AL right now, it is probably Bobby Witt Jr. just because he has the potential to run down Judge in the AL MVP race, and the odds have gotten long enough for him to do it that it has become an attractive proposition for a samller wager that can pay off big.

With that said, if you buy Witt now at +1200 odds and the trends continue, next week you might be able to get him at +1500, wait a little longer and it might be +2500. The best way to follow the odds is to check weekly, follow the trends, and always remember what the BBWAA voters are going to value above everything else: WAR.