A Strong Deadline Could Be Final Touch on the Nationals Rebuild

In 2019, the Washington Nationals finished 93-69 and won the World Series for the first time in their franchise’s history, Expos years included.

The next year in 2020, the Nationals finished 26-34 in a COVID-shortened season, good for fourth in the National League East.

In 2021, the Nationals finished 65-97, which landed them in last place in the division and with the third-lowest winning percentage in the NL.

In such a short amount of time, the club has gone from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. What felt like seconds after winning the World Series, the organization lost Anthony Rendon to the Angels, Stephen Strasburg broke and Patrick Corbin forgot how to play baseball.

This year’s Nationals have a chance to do something big. They’re currently 47-53, which puts them 16 games out of first in the East, but they’re only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. They’re one of many teams that still have playoff hopes. One strong run of games and this team could be right back in it. They’re also at a point where a few more smart, calculated moves could get them more big league-ready reinforcements that can be part of the next competitive window.

Today, we’re going to recap the past few years and determine how we got to this point. Then, we’ll take a look at how a strong 2024 trade deadline could officially mark the end of the Nationals’ rebuild.

Beginning of the End

24 hours after this team won its first-ever World Series, nine players elected free agency. Another had his mutual option declined and two more had their club options declined. The group quickly started to take a different shape.

Ownership had big plans for how the 2019-2020 offseason would go, as they signed Strasburg to a seven-year contract extension and pursued the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Josh Donaldson and Zack Wheeler in free agency.

They had their sights set high, but what actually came to be is much more disappointing. Instead of Bumgarner, Donaldson or Wheeler, this is who the club came away with:

• Yan Gomes

• Howie Kendrick

• Starlin Castro

• Asdrubal Cabrera

• Eric Thames

It was immediately apparent that these Nationals were not going to be the same caliber as last year’s roster. However, they were just good enough where one could easily write off their performance as a one-off, or place the blame on everything that went on with COVID.

Not All Negative

Before we go any further, there’s one significant silver lining to the events that transpired in a down 2020 season. The Nationals took a flier on a no-name reliever who had just recently been cut loose by the Oakland A’s: Kyle Finnegan.

Finnegan, now 32, is a pivotal part of the current Nationals’ bullpen. The right-hander has 44 appearances under his belt this year and leads the NL in games finished with 40, along with 28 saves. He made his first career All-Star Game and has been a real force in the back-end of their bullpen.

More on him in a minute.

The Nationals Rebuild Officially Begins

Just 30 days before the club made one of the biggest trades in their franchise’s history (we’ll get to an even bigger one in a bit), the Nats were two-and-a-half games out of first place. Suddenly, Strasburg and Kyle Schwarber hit the injured list and Corbin lost his touch for pitching. This led them to go 8-18 from June 30 to the end of July.

Just like that, it’s over. The Nationals waved the white flag and pulled off a massive trade with the Dodgers that is still playing out for the Nats.

Trea Turner and Max Scherzer Head West

On July 30 of 2021, the Nats sent All-Star shortstop Trea Turner and ace Max Scherzer to the Dodgers in exchange for Gerardo Carrillo, Donovan Casey, Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. This was the official start of their teardown.

Today, only Gray and Ruiz remain in the organization, but they’re important pieces. Carrillo is now in the Rangers’ system and Casey is tearing it up in the Independent League.

Gray, 26, has a 4.80 ERA through 72 starts as a National. This year, he made two starts and allowed 13 runs on 15 hits (14.04 ERA) before hitting the shelf with a long-term injury. He was the club’s All-Star representative last year and had a 109 ERA+ across 30 starts in 2023, so the potential is there, he just needs to find consistency and stay healthy.

Ruiz is having a down year in 2024, but he’s the club’s catcher of the future, as he’s already been locked up through the 2030 season. The switch-hitter doesn’t swing and miss much, but he’s also below-average in most offensive categories and he’s been dreadful on defense. It remains to be seen how solid of a contributor he’ll be down the line, but one thing’s for certain: he’s here to stay.

A Lesser-Known Deal That’s Also Paying Off

On the same day as the Dodgers deal, the Nationals also sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals in exchange for outfielder Lane Thomas. He was 84 games into his career and had yet to contribute in any meaningful sense in St. Louis. On the Nats, he’s been as steady as they come, posting and OPS+ north of 100 in every year he’s been with the club.

Acquiring Gray, Ruiz and Thomas have laid the groundwork for the current Nationals. This is exactly how teams want their rebuilds to go, in that they send their stars packing and get big league contributors back.

Soto Trade Set the Nationals Up for the Long Run

At the 2022 trade deadline, the Nationals sent otherworldly superstar Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres in what some call the biggest trade of all-time.

Soto and first baseman Josh Bell were sent to the Padres in exchange for MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Luke Voit, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. A lot of these names may sound familiar, as they’re currently some of the top players on the Nationals’ big league roster.

Gore, Abrams and Wood are all current stars on the Nats. Gore in particular has emerged as the staff ace many in the Padres system knew he’d be one day. He’s got a 4.20 ERA and 3.14 FIP through 20 starts in 2024, along with a respectable 95 ERA+.

Abrams, who’s shockingly only 23, made the All-Star Game this season and has been the club’s top hitter. Earlier this year, he became the first player in MLB history to hit seven home runs, hit four triples and steal six bases within his first 25 games of the year.

Wood, Just Baseball’s top prospect, reached base seven times in his first 14 games, which is the most by any player in Nationals history. Yes, that includes Bryce Harper. He’s got a pair of home runs and 12 runs driven in across his first 17 games. He’s going to pair with Abrams for a long, long time in this lineup.

Fast Forward to 2024

The Nationals have multiple players that they could sell without feeling too big of an impact at the major league level. There are perhaps no bigger trade chips than Jesse Winker, who is as movable as they come.

Winker, 30, is a cheap ($2 million) rental who has been performing at a surprisingly strong rate all year. In 96 games, he’s got 11 home runs and 43 RBI with an .813 OPS and 135 OPS+, even stealing 14 bags along the way as well. His previous career-high was … one (2017, 2020, 2021).

There are multiple contenders that could use an outfielder with pop. His resurgence has made him one of the more obvious trade candidates in all of baseball. The Nationals will easily be able to move him for a useful contributor.

Last year’s trade of Jeimer Candelario is a perfect outline for a Winker deal. Candelario was a one-year rental who got flipped to the Cubs in exchange for DJ Herz, who’s a big league starter for the Nationals this year. The 23-year-old has a 3.98 FIP through seven starts to kick off his career.

Multiple Relievers Could Move

Finnegan is under team control through next season and will have his value raised because of it. He’s quietly become one of the better relievers in baseball, despite the fact that he’s as under-the-radar as they come. He is likely going to move, but not as a part of a major sell-off.

Instead, he’ll join the likes of Dylan Floro and Derek Law, both of which are having strong years and represent strong trade candidates.

Floro is another pending free agent who has a 2.02 ERA and 2.35 FIP through 48 outings and 49 innings this year. He’s as durable as they come, having appeared in 50 or more games in every full season since 2018 (25 outings in the COVID-shortened 2020). He also seems to be getting better with age, as his current output is the best he’s ever had in his nine-year career.

Law, an eight-year vet, has made 48 appearances of his own, posting a 3.20 ERA and 3.62 FIP in the process. He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher but he does a solid job of limiting the longball and has also cut his walk rate nearly in half compared to last year.

Hunter Harvey, a reliable middle-relief option, was already sent packing to the Royals earlier this month. The return, a draft pick and a player who is now the Nationals’ No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline, should provide hope for what the likes of Finnegan, Floro and Law can bring back.

Time to Close the Book On This Rebuild

Since their top trade chips are all doing well, the Nationals can take a massive step forward at this year’s deadline. Winker, Finnegan, Floro and Law are all doing well and since they’re all on short-term deals (Law and Finnegan both have extra years of control), they’ll be extra appealing to contenders.

With the current wave of Ruiz, Wood, speedster Jacob Young, Gore and the forever underrated Jake Irvin, the foundation is already in place for the next contention window.

The best part is that that’s only what’s on the surface. Wood will be graduating from prospect status in short order, but Dylan Crews (Just Baseball No. 13) and Brady House (No. 46) are well on their way, too, as are Daylen Lile, Hassell and Darren Baker. Our Aram Leighton gave both Crews and House a 2025 ETA, which makes next year’s Nationals all the more dangerous.

Financial Flexibility Inbound

For years now, Patrick Corbin’s albatross of a contract (six years, $140 million) has bogged down the Nationals’ payroll. The left-hander was one of the best left-handed starters in the game prior to the ink drying on his deal, but he’s been a tough watch in virtually every year he’s been a National.

This year, he’s being paid $25 million to pitch like one of the worst starters in the game.

Corbin, 34, has a 5.05 ERA and 83 ERA+ across 158 starts since joining the Nationals. His strikeouts have gradually dipped further and further from his Diamondbacks days and his H/9 are consistently over 10. He’s a shell of the player he once was when he made two All-Star Games and earned Cy Young votes on two occasions in Arizona.

At long last, his contract is set to expire at the end of the current campaign. Getting that off the books is going to open up the Nationals’ payroll at the perfect time. With a ton of internal help on the way, the club is finally going to have some money to play with now that Corbin’s not on the payroll any longer.

This may seem like a largely unimportant footnote to the Nationals’ story, but this is going to be huge for them.

Closing Thoughts

A turnaround is right in front of the Nationals. If they can properly handle the moving of their assets at this year’s deadline, they’re going to be sitting pretty for 2025 and beyond. Armed with one of the more promising farm systems in baseball with a big league core that’s already showing promising signs, it’s not going to be long now before they return to contention.

Of course, that’s only going to be complicated by the fact that the Braves and Phillies are always in contention. The NL East is one of the more difficult divisions in the game today, but the Nationals are well on their way to throwing their hat back in the ring in the East.

Let’s put it this way: the 2012 Nationals, the club’s first team that even sniffed the playoffs once they moved to D.C. had Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmermann and Strasburg as their core.

The current Nationals have Gray, Ruiz, Gore, Abrams and soon to be Crews in place for their next window of contention. There are similarities there, and this group is capable of repeating some of the organization’s past successes in the immediate future.