Top Five Landing Spots for Nationals’ Jesse Winker

Jesse Winker is having a terrific bounceback season for the Washington Nationals.

In 94 games, Winker has slugged 11 home runs and 18 doubles, putting up a .260/.374/.432 slash line. His 130 wRC+ ranks 17th among qualified NL batters. He has been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, with a 14.5% walk rate and 145 wRC+.

Winker is putting up his best power numbers since his All-Star campaign with the Reds in 2021, and he continues to be one of the most disciplined hitters in the game. His 13.5% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified players, trailing only Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Mookie Betts. Talk about good company.

As if that weren’t impressive enough, the 30-year-old has also stolen a career-high 12 bases. He is one of only nine qualified batters with at least 10 homers, 10 steals, and a walk rate above 10%.

The underlying metrics aren’t quite as impressive. Winker’s .339 xwOBA (69th percentile) is more good than great. And despite his double-digit steals, he still grades out as a poor baserunner (18th-percentile sprint speed will do that to you).

In the same vein, Winker doesn’t offer much defensive value in the outfield, aside from a strong arm he has used to rack up five outfield assists. His -8 OAA ranks third-last among NL outfielders.

Nevertheless, Winker has been an above-average player this season. He should continue to be so even if his .317 BABIP regresses toward his career average (.298) and his .356 wOBA regresses toward his .339 xwOBA.

According to a report from Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo, and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Nationals are “ready to shift into sell mode.” That means POBO Mike Rizzo will certainly be “entertaining trade offers” for Winker. Simply put, he has played too well for the Nationals not to deal him.

Yet, as a rental on a $2 million salary, Winker won’t cost the team that trades for him too much in terms of salary or prospects. Thus, any team that could use his lefty bat will surely be interested in his services, from the smaller-market clubs to those pushing up against the upper luxury tax thresholds.

Considering his strengths and weaknesses, Winker’s market is quite clear. He will be an asset to any team that (a) needs to improve against right-handed pitching, (b) has at-bats to spare in the outfield and/or at DH, and (c) can afford to put up with his subpar defense and baserunning.

Here are five potential suitors for Jesse Winker.

All stats and rankings updated prior to games on July 19.

Atlanta Braves

Key Stats:

• Team-wide 93 wRC+ vs. RHP (24th in MLB)
• Left-handed hitters have an 88 wRC+ (27th in MLB)
• Outfielders have an 82 wRC+ (27th in MLB)

The Braves’ offense has been far less lethal than anticipated this season. Atlanta ranks 16th in MLB with just 4.3 runs per game and 18th with a 97 wRC+.

The weakest spot in their lineup is at shortstop, where 2023 All-Star Orlando Arcia has a 57 wRC+. However, outfielders Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario aren’t exactly thriving either. Besides, Atlanta will have a much easier time finding an offensive upgrade for the outfield before the trade deadline.

According to Rosenthal, Braves POBO Alex Anthopoulos has already begun “exploring the market for outfielders” and “engaging in preliminary discussions with clubs.” Recent free agent signing Rosario likely isn’t the long-term solution.

Winker could replace Rosario on the roster and push Duvall into a bench/platoon role when Michael Harris II comes off the IL.

Seattle Mariners

Key Stats:

• Team-wide 94 wRC+ vs. RHP (22nd in MLB)
• Left-handed hitters have a 97 wRC+ (20th in MLB)
• No batter (min. 50 PA) with OBP above .323 or wRC+ above 108

Like the Braves, the Mariners are in postseason position because of their elite pitching staff and despite their mediocre offense.

Seattle ranks 27th in MLB with a pitiful 3.9 runs scored per game. The team’s collective 95 wRC+ ranks 21st.

The M’s don’t need another lefty bat quite as badly as the Braves, but this team desperately needs more fearsome hitters. I mean, what they really need is Julio Rodríguez, Mitch Garver, Ty France, and J.P. Crawford to step up, but adding another bat would also go a long way.

The Mariners have reportedly expressed keen interest in trading for Jazz Chisholm Jr., another lefty-batting outfielder. While Chisholm and Winker do not fill the same niche, the Chisholm rumors make it clear that the Mariners are serious about acquiring another lefty bat.

Would Winker be an acceptable plan B if a Chisholm deal doesn’t materialize?

The Mariners clearly liked Winker when they acquired him from the Reds ahead of the 2022 campaign. Yet, he reportedly made a poor impression on his teammates that season.

According to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, “Some of his teammates were done with him, were just tired of putting up with him [by the end of the season]. I think the team is frustrated with him.”

The team of “fun differential” might be hesitant to disrupt its clubhouse chemistry, but then again, Winker is playing much better baseball this year than he did in 2022. Good vibes and good baseball tend to go hand in hand.

As long as Winker is hitting, I think the Mariners would be happy to have him back.

Kansas City Royals

Key Stats:

• Team-wide 95 wRC+ vs. RHP (19th in MLB)
• Left-handed hitters have an 85 wRC+ (28th in MLB)
• Team-wide 7.2% walk rate (27th in MLB)

As Vinnie Pasquantino continues to underperform, the Royals don’t have a single impact left-handed bat in their lineup. Winker is an especially good fit considering this team’s .305 OBP (21st in MLB) and 7.2% walk rate (27th).

Like the Mariners, the Royals have been connected to Chisholm. And with their trade for Hunter Harvey, we know they’re serious about buying at the deadline.

Presumably, Winker would move around between the outfield corners and the DH spot in Kansas City, where players like MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, and Nelson Velázquez have underwhelmed in those roles.

New York Yankees

Key Stats:

• Team-wide 93 wRC+, excluding Judge and Soto
• Team-wide 100 wRC+ vs. RHP, excluding Judge and Soto
• Left-handed hitters have a 93 wRC+, excluding Soto

The Yankees are yet another team that has reportedly expressed interest in trading for Chisholm. Like I said, Chisholm and Walker are completely different players, but ultimately, what the Yankees need is an impact bat – any impact bat – to supplement Judge and Soto.

Giancarlo Stanton will hope to return from the IL shortly, but his age, injury history, and recent track record make him something of a wild card. The Yankees can’t rely on him too heavily. Similarly, the hot-hitting Ben Rice probably won’t continue performing this well all year long. The Yankees desperately need another reliable hitter.

If Stanton is healthy, Winker will get plenty of playing time in left field. Otherwise, he should slot in as New York’s regular DH.

Cincinnati Reds

Key Stats:

• Team-wide 91 wRC+ vs. RHP (26th in MLB)
• Left-handed hitters have a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB)
• Winker would have an additional 24 home runs (a 26% increase) if he played all his games at Great American Ball Park (per Statcast)

With five teams sitting in between Cincinnati and the final NL Wild Card berth, the Reds don’t feel like contenders. That said, their +38 run differential is the fifth-best in the NL, and MLB insider Jon Heyman claims they’re more likely to buy than sell at the deadline.

I should also note that the Reds were in a much better position to buy at last year’s deadline (59-49), and yet, they chose to do almost nothing. I won’t truly believe this team is buying until I see it happen.

However, if POBO Nick Krall is serious about contending this year, a reunion with Winker makes a lot of sense.

Trading Winker wouldn’t cost the Reds a ton in terms of dollars or prospect capital. If Krall doesn’t want to go all-in on a bigger fish, adding Winker is a nice way to do something without having to sacrifice all that much.

What’s more, we know Winker can hit at Great American Ball Park. He had a 132 wRC+ in 413 games over five seasons with the Reds from 2017-2021, including a .297/.393/.540 slash line (139 wRC+) at home. The Reds could certainly use a bat like that this season.

Manager David Bell will have to move things around to make room for Winker at DH or in the outfield, but it would be a good problem for the skipper to have.