Nationals’ Jake Irvin Is the Best Pitcher No One Is Talking About

When people think about the Washington Nationals, the young talent immediately comes to mind: MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and recent call-up James Wood.

While these young players are certainly exciting, it is important to note that Jake Irvin has performed as well as anyone in D.C. At just 27 years old, he could be a part of the next Nationals core, which may be here sooner than many anticipated.

In his sophomore season, Irvin has dropped his ERA from 4.61 to 3.13, essentially a full run and a half of improvement. His FIP, too, is down 1.67 from last season, indicating that he has not just been getting lucky, but that he has made substantive improvements to his game and that this breakout is not just a fluke.

Irvin is also on pace to smash his innings total from his rookie season; he is just 9.1 innings away from passing his total from all of last year.

Stats and rankings updated prior to games on July 12.

Jake Irvin Is Tapping Into His Strengths

One of Irvin’s most significant improvements has been with his command. He has cut his BB/9 in half this year, which has helped improve both his FIP and ERA.

Significantly, Irvin’s strikeout numbers have remained essentially the same. Just because he has been around the zone more this year, it does not mean he is getting hit harder or more often, as he maintains a respectable 7.71 K/9.

One of Irvin’s best qualities is his extension, which is in the top 8th percentile of MLB. Standing at 6-foot-6, he is able to get down the mound exceptionally well, which makes his 94-mph fastball play much faster. For hitters, it is as if the lanky Irvin is just handing the ball to the catcher, limiting their time to read pitches and react.

Irvin plays off of his fastball extremely well with his curveball, which is his best pitch. He has posted an impressive +6 breaking pitch run value this year, which ranks in the top 8% of all of baseball (per Baseball Savant).

With his average fastball sitting around 94 mph and playing harder than that, Irvin’s 81-mph curveball buckles and freezes hitters as it is so much slower than the heater.

Irvin’s pitch heat maps show just how effectively he uses these two pitches off of each other. He lives with his fastball in the upper part of, or above, the strike zone, relying on his extension and the pitch’s ride to keep it above barrels.

He then starts his curveballs at the top of the zone so that they track like his fastballs but at the last second break downward and fall into the strike zone.

Irvin throws both pitches about 36% of the time, by far the most of any pitches in his repertoire. Opposing hitters are left guessing. Both pitches have been great for Irvin this year, as his opponents are batting just .200 and .190 against his fastball and curveball, respectively.

Changing Up His Pitch Mix

When looking at a pitcher, it is rarely obvious what led to a year-over-year improvement, but in Irvin’s case, the cause of his newfound success couldn’t be more clear: he has significantly reduced his sinker usage.

For many pitchers, adjusting their repertoire will be more complex than just dropping their worst pitch. They may need a pitch that performs poorly (in a vacuum) to keep hitters honest or allow their other pitches to perform better. Brayan Bello and his use (or lack thereof) of his four-seam fastball is an example of this.

However, cutting his sinker usage from 29% to just under 18% has worked wonders for Irvin this season. A year ago, he was essentially a three-pitch pitcher, featuring his four-seam, sinker, and curveball all right around 30% of the time.

While his fastball and curveball were in the same ballpark as they are this year in terms of performance, opponents smashed his sinker to the tune of a .348 batting average against and .400 wOBA. 

The problem, it seems, is that the pitch was essentially a middle ground between the curveball and fastball. Because Irvin threw the pitch just about as often as his other two, hitters could anticipate either fastball or curveball and still be in a good position to hit the sinker, which Irvin threw just under once out of every three pitches.

Now that he throws the pitch less than 20% of the time, and the variance between the curveball and fastball is so great, he is forcing hitters to sell out. If they guess wrong, it is almost impossible to succeed.

This adjustment – an alteration of one’s arsenal – is one of the most sustainable adjustments a pitcher can make. This makes it more likely Irvin will be set up for an extended run of success this year, and for many years to come, in Washington.

Irvin’s adjustment also shows that more does not always mean better from a pitching perspective. Having a honed repertoire with two pitches that play exceptionally well off of each other can be more effective than throwing a bunch of different types of pitches just because you can.

There needs to be intentionality behind pitch selection if a pitcher is going to consistently get outs.