MLB’s 10 Biggest Surprises Through the First Month of 2025

The month of April is officially in the books, and there’s already been plenty of headlines to discuss through the first month of the 2025 MLB season.

As is generally the case each year, several players typically surprise the baseball world with hot starts out of the gate.

It may come in the form of a veteran experiencing a late-career resurgence, a former top prospect finally realizing his potential, or an under-the-radar player who has simply taken his game to new heights.

Whatever the case may be, there are a handful of players who deserve their flowers for putting together some impressive starts to the year. Let’s highlight 10 of MLB’s biggest surprises through the first month of the 2025 season.

All stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 30.

10. LHP Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Matthew Liberatore has had an up-and-down track to the big leagues to this point. The 2018 first-round selection was once one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball who had middle-of-the-rotation upside, but he has struggled mightily in several major league stints to this point.

However, he may finally be realizing his potential. After coming into the 2025 season looking to carve out a role as a long-relief option, Liberatore has been the Cardinals’ best starter to open the season.

Liberatore has accumulated 1.2 fWAR so far this season, which puts him tied for eighth in Major League Baseball with elite names such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tarik Skubal. He leads the Cardinals’ rotation in ERA (3.19), but his peripherals suggest he’s been even better than that.

Liberatore is fourth among qualified MLB starters in FIP (1.89) thanks to his ability to pound the strike zone. He’s allowed just two walks on the year, yielding a walk rate of just 1.7%. That’s the lowest mark in MLB.

For a player who averaged 3.5 walks per nine and an 8.9% walk rate from 2022-’24, the stride forward in that department is mighty encouraging. If he maintains that improved command, this could finally be the year Liberatore experiences the breakout that many Cardinals fans have been waiting for.

9. 1B/OF/DH Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks fans know how talented of a hitter Smith is. He’s coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .270 with an .896 OPS and 142 wRC+ in 60 games. As a result, I’m sure some had increased expectations for Smith heading into Opening Day.

However, not many were expecting him to be one of the best hitters in MLB through the first month of the season.

Through his first 90 plate appearances this year, Smith is slashing .347/.478/.639 to go with four homers. Among hitters with at least 90 plate appearances, Smith’s 205 wRC+ trails only Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

He’s second in MLB in wOBA (.479) and OBP (.478), and he’s near the top of the leaderboard in batting average, slugging percentage, and ISO as well.

Again, I’m sure the Diamondbacks faithful had high hopes for Smith, but how many people expected him to be tied with Shohei Ohtani with 1.2 fWAR through the first month of the season? I’d venture to guess not many. That speaks to just how impressive he’s been.

Obviously this level of hitting is unsustainable, but Smith could certainly finish as one of the better hitters in a potent Diamondbacks lineup that is one of the best in Major League Baseball.

8. LHP MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Similar to Liberatore, Mackenzie Gore’s strong start isn’t terribly surprising given the amount of talent he has. However, we’ve yet to see him put it together across three big-league seasons to this point, and some were starting to wonder if we were ever going to see the best version of Gore in the majors.

Thankfully for Nationals fans, it’s starting to come together for their ace. While Gore’s 3.51 ERA might not be anything to marvel at, he has flashed some of the best strikeout material in the game to this point.

Gore has the third-best K/9 among qualified MLB starters at 12.95, trailing only Cole Ragans and Logan Gilbert. Moreover, his K-BB% of 30.3% is second in Major League Baseball. In turn, his FIP of 2.52 is 13th in MLB, and he currently sports the second-best SIERA (2.28) among starters.

One of the more pleasant surprises through he first month, Gore appears to be on track for a career year, dominating hitters on the mound so far.

Our Michael Fischer recently took a closer look at Gore’s outstanding start to the 2025 season and analyzed what he’s done differently this season to yield better results. Be sure to check out Michael’s piece for a more thorough deep dive on Gore’s performance:

7. RHP Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers

People were high on the Rangers’ rotation heading into the season, but I’m not sure how many fans expected Tyler Mahle to be leading the way in a rotation that includes Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.

Not only that, but he’s been one of the most effective starters in the game through the first month of the 2025 season.

Mahle is currently second in MLB among qualified starters in ERA at a dazzling 1.14. He’s not doing it with quite as much dominance as some of the other arms around him on the leaderboard, but he’s done a great job at limiting damaging contact.

He’s in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate at 33.7%, and he has yet to allow a homer in his six outings (31.2 IP).

Given Mahle’s extensive injury history, fans didn’t know what to expect from him in 2025. It wasn’t his talent that was in question, but instead there was uncertainty regarding how he would hold up over a full season. Well, so far in 2025, he’s been one of the most productive arms in baseball.

As of last week, there were several pitchers who were sporting sub-1.00 ERAs through the first month of the season. Mahle was one of the arms in that group, and our Jay Staph wrote a great piece diving into each pitcher’s early-season success.

For a more comprehensive look into what has made Mahle so successful out of the gate, you can check out Jay’s work here:

6. SS Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks

While it might not be flashy, Geraldo Perdomo has quietly been one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball this season.

His 1.4 fWAR is the best among National League shortstops. As of last week, he led all MLB shortstops in fWAR until recently getting passed by Bobby Witt Jr. Among all qualified hitters, Perdomo’s fWAR ranks 14th in Major League Baseball — something not many fans expected to see heading into the season.

Perdomo provides value through an elite approach and top-tier defense, and that’s exactly why the D-Backs signed him to a four-year contract extension this past offseason.

The 25-year old is one of the better defensive shortstops, already racking up +4 OAA and +2 DRS. What’s more, few hitters have demonstrated a more sound approach than Perdomo thus far.

He’s sporting a walk rate of 15.9% while striking out just 9.8% of the time. He’s doing that on the backs of a whiff rate that’s in the 98th percentile (11%) and a chase rate that is among the best in MLB at 18.5%. The way he’s commanded the strike zone in the early going of the season has been truly impressive.

Perdomo has also seen a nice boost in power through the first month as well. Heading into 2025, Perdomo’s career high in homers was six; He already has four through 29 games this season.

It’s been fun to witness his development as a player, and Perdomo has been one of the best surprises on a strong Diamondbacks team through the first month of 2025.

5. 1B/DH Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants

Wouldn’t you know it, Wilmer Flores is off to another great start in an odd-year. Yes, that is a real thing. Our Michael Monreal broke down the unusual trend for the veteran hitter, which you can read using the link below:

Heading into his age-33 season this year, Flores’ best days appeared to be in the past. He’s coming off an injury-riddled 2024 season in which he posted a career-low fWAR of -0.7 and wRC+ of just 68. He hit just .206 with an OPS south of .600.

However, Flores has been awesome for a hot Giants team thus far in 2025. His 28 RBI are third in MLB, which is something not many fans could have anticipated heading into Opening Day.

It feels as if every time the Giants need a clutch hit, Flores has been there to deliver. After hitting just four homers last year, he already has seven this season to go with a couple of late go-ahead homers and walk-off winners.

He’s been one of the best high-leverage hitters this season, and the Giants faithful must be thrilled with what they’ve seen out of Flores to open the 2025 campaign.

4. INF Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners

Jorge Polanco is a former All-Star who had some terrific seasons with the Twins in recent years, but many figured his best days were behind him offensively.

His first season in a Mariners uniform last year was a disappointment. In 118 games, Polanco hit just .213 to go with a 92 wRC+ and an fWAR of 0.3. Given his substantial step back, expectations were tempered heading into his age-31 season.

But lo and behold, Polanco rediscovered his power stroke in 2025, and he’s swinging one of the hottest bats in Major League Baseball.

Among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances, Polanco leads MLB in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG thanks to his otherworldly quality of contact. He’s sporting a hard-hit rate of 56.9% — by far the highest mark of his career — to go with a barrel rate of 20%. Each of those marks are in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters.

In turn, among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances on the year, Polanco’s OPS of 1.243 and wRC+ of 258 lead Major League Baseball. Likewise, his power output has been second to none, pacing the sport in ISO (.431) and slugging percentage (.819).

After finishing with 27 extra-base hits all of last season, he already has 13 this year, including nine homers (tied for second in MLB) and four doubles. He’s as comfortable as ever at the plate right now, and that’s led to some of the best results in MLB through the first month of the 2025 season.

Of course, Mariners fans shouldn’t expect Polanco to keep pace with Judge as the season progresses. However, this version of Polanco undeniably changes the outlook of Seattle’s offense and has made the Mariners one of the hottest teams in baseball.

3. OF Trent Grisham, New York Yankees

All offseason long, Yankees fans were wondering who would step up in the lineup and make up for the lost production from Juan Soto’s departure. Well, through the first month of the season, Trent Grisham has been the one to come through for New York.

Grisham has only 76 plate appearances on the year, but he’s made the most out of his opportunity. The 28-year-old is slashing .294/.368/.662 with a 192 wRC+ through his first 24 games of the season.

For a player who slashed .191/.298/.353 for a .651 OPS across his three seasons (381 games) from 2022-’24, this level of production is certainly a surprise that’s been welcomed by Yankees fans.

Grisham had just 17 extra-base hits that included nine homers in 76 games last season. So far this year, he already has nine XBH, including eight homers.

Among hitters with a minimum of 70 plate appearances, he ranks third in ISO at .368 and fourth in slugging percentage. His career-best marks in each of those categories heading into the season were .205 and .456, respectively. Few could have seen this power surge coming.

Grisham is hitting the ball harder than he ever has while striking out at what would be a career-low rate of 19.7%. That’s a recipe for success, and for someone who has provided most of his value with his glove throughout his career, it’s encouraging to see his bat come along in such a noticeable way.

2. 1B Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays

Jonathan Aranda has been hitting the cover off the ball through the first month of the season, and he’s posted some of the best results in baseball as a result.

Through 27 games (101 PA), Aranda has the single-highest hard-hit rate in Major League Baseball at 63.1%. He’s in the top three percent in average exit velocity (95 mph), and he’s barreling balls at a whopping 15.4% rate, which is in the 84th percentile of MLB hitters.

In turn, it’s no surprise to see him rank near the top of the league in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. That strong quality of contact has translated to impressive results, as Aranda is slashing .294/.396/.529 on the year with a .403 wOBA and a 184 wRC+ (ninth in MLB).

Much like Pavin Smith, it’s not overly surprising to see Aranda crush the ball out of the gate given what we’ve seen from him in the past. He’s coming off a 2024 season in which he posted a respectable 113 wRC+ and .737 OPS in 143 plate appearances.

But so far this season, he’s taken his game to unexpected heights. He’s striking out at a career-best 20.8% rate, walking at an 11.9% clip, and doing a good job of hitting for both power and contact.

Our Daniel Rotter put together an in-depth dive highlighting how Aranda has been the Rays’ early-season standout. Be sure to check out his article for more detail regarding Aranda’s impressive start:

1. C Carson Kelly, Chicago Cubs

Carson Kelly signed a two-year deal with the Chicago Cubs this past offseason, and it’s already paying dividends through the first month of the 2025 season.

Given that Kelly splits time with Miguel Amaya behind the dish, he doesn’t have as many plate appearances as some of the other names mentioned on this list. However, through 16 games, Kelly has already accumulated 1.5 fWAR.

To provide context on how insane that is, Kelly’s fWAR is tied for the best mark among all MLB catchers. He’s tied with Cal Raleigh, who has also accumulated 1.5 fWAR, except Raleigh has done so in 29 games and 130 plate appearances while Kelly has done it in nearly half the games and in just 63 plate appearances.

Expand the scope to all MLB hitters, and Kelly is tied for sixth in fWAR with names such as Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Tucker. Again, he’s done so while splitting time behind the dish. That speaks volumes to just how lethal Kelly has been with the bat through the first month of the season.

Kelly is slashing .370/.524/.891 with seven homers, a 268 wRC+, and a .568 wOBA. He’s punched out just five times compared to his 15 walks, and he’s even hit for the cycle as well.

Nobody had that level of production from the 30-year-old backstop on their 2025 bingo card, not even the most dedicated of Carson Kelly truthers.

This is a player whose career-high wRC+ heading into the year was 107, which came back in 2019. He’s finished with a below-average wRC+ in each of his three seasons from 2022-’24, and Chicago is Kelly’s fourth MLB team since 2023. He was even DFA’d by the Diamondbacks back in August of 2023.

For Kelly to step into this role with one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball is something to marvel at, and his production has been the biggest surprise through the first month of 2025.