A Closer Look at MacKenzie Gore’s Outstanding Start to 2025
The Nationals' lefty looks like the ace we've seen flashes off before and has put himself in the upper echelon of elite starting talent.
All stats and rankings were taken prior to first pitch on April 28.
Every spring, as the new Major League Baseball season begins, we see some incredible performances and wild stats right out of the gate. Some prove to be fool’s gold as the reality of the long season takes hold. Other players manage to sustain their starts.
Washington Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore is one of those players off to an outstanding start. On the surface, his 2-3 record, 3.34 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP through six starts for the 13-15 Nationals aren’t awe-inspiring. However, those numbers don’t even begin to tell the full story of his young season.
With four quality starts, Gore has more than held up his end for the Nationals. And when you look under the hood, the left-hander has thrust himself into the upper echelon of elite starting talent.
So, what has the former No. 3 overall draft pick been doing this season? Let’s take a deeper look.
MacKenzie Gore’s Strikeout Game Has Been Glorious
Now 26, Gore began his fourth MLB season off with a bang. He matched his career high with 13 strikeouts over six shutout innings on Opening Day, holding the Philadelphia Phillies to only one hit.
He nearly repeated that outstanding performance last week against the Colorado Rockies, punching out 13 once again while allowing just four hits across six innings of two-run ball.
Yes, the Opening Day start was a late-afternoon, shadow-aided affair that had hitters on both sides looking lost (the teams combined for 32 strikeouts). And yes, the Rockies are, well, the Rockies.
But Gore has had strong games against good lineups, too. He picked up a win with seven strikeouts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most recently, he struck out eight Orioles hitters over six innings in a 2-1 loss last Thursday.
Gore leads all qualified pitchers with 13.63 K/9 and 53 strikeouts in 35 innings. Leaning on a 34.2% whiff rate, his 37.3% strikeout rate is in the 97th percentile of MLB pitchers. That punchout rate ranks second in baseball, just behind Logan Gilbert’s 37.6% mark. His 31% strikeout-minus-walk rate also barely trails Gilbert’s mark of 32.4%.
Gore Really Deserves Better
With those kinds of strikeout numbers, you’d expect some better results on the scoresheet than he has put up so far this season.
The middling Nationals offense has scored 4.2 runs per game through four weeks of the season. In the four games they’ve lost with Gore on the mound, they’ve put up just 2.5 runs per game. He has pitched well enough where he deserves a couple more wins.
Pitching in front of a Nationals team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in advanced fielding metrics also might have something to do with his results. Gore seems to have had a bit of bad luck so far this year — his .368 BABIP is one of the highest among qualified pitchers.
No matter what underlying stat you like to look at (assuming you’re a baseball nerd), Gore deserves a result better than his 3.34 ERA, as his 3.04 xERA indicates. He also boasts the fifth-lowest FIP (1.96) and xFIP (2.16) in the majors. Not to mention his 2.16 SIERA, the third-best qualified mark.
Nationals fans who have watched their team wallow in the abyss of the NL East for a few years now will continue to ask the question: Is Gore’s outstanding start sustainable?
New Weapons Might Make Gore’s Start Legit
He has shown flashes of being this pitcher over the past couple of years. However, he has always regressed to the same guy when the final numbers are tallied at the end of the season. Over 59 starts between 2022-23, he averaged 9.87 K/9 and a 25.3% strikeout rate.
There’s hope that this early-season version of Gore will continue taking the ball every five days.
Still employing a versatile five-pitch mix, Gore has been using a new version of his slider that Nick Pollack of Pitcher List calls “filthy.” It certainly has been filthy, helping him neutralize his reverse splits against left-handed hitters. Throwing it exclusively to lefties, the slider has held opponents to a measly .150 batting average and .250 slugging percentage.
He has also revamped his cutter, which, along with his curveball, has seen a dramatic uptick in whiffs.
The cutter has climbed to a 54.5% whiff rate from 32.2% in 2024. Similarly, his curve has improved from generating swing-and-miss 33.9% of the time to 50.8%. Combined with the slider’s 51.8% whiff rate, hitters are coming up empty over half the time against three of his five offerings.
While these pitch improvements lead one to believe that there’s something different about Gore this season, there’s still one red flag that might be a cause for concern: his 41.6% fly-ball rate. The last time he had a rate over 40% (40.1% in 2022) he gave up 27 home runs in 136 1/3 innings for an 18.2% HR/FB rate.
So far, the rate at which hitters are putting the ball in the air hasn’t been a problem. He has allowed just three home runs for a 9.4% HR/FB rate. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens when the weather warms up and balls start flying in the summer months.
Written by