Which Sub-.500 Team Has the Best Chance to Make the Playoffs?

We’re officially over the halfway point in the 2025 MLB season, and for some teams things haven’t gone according to plan this season.

For some slow starters, the window to make it to the postseason in 2025 is slowly coming to a close. For others, though, hope still remains that they can right the ship and make it to October baseball.

Today, we will be looking at the sub-.500 ball clubs and breaking down which teams have the best chances to sneak into the playoffs come season’s end. Plenty of teams were in consideration, but five stood out among the rest.

For context, only teams who were three games or more below .500 heading into play on Monday, June 30, were eligible to be included in this article.

So, with the Midsummer Classic right around the corner as the calendar turns to July, which underperforming teams are in the best position to make a run in the second half and make the playoffs in 2025? Here are the top candidates.

Stats, rankings, and standings were taken prior to play on July 2.

5. Baltimore Orioles

It’s no secret that the Baltimore Orioles have been the most disappointing team in the American League this season.

After heading into 2025 with playoff aspirations, the O’s currently sit last in the AL East standings and seven games back from a wild-card spot with a record of 37-48. It’s a season that’s featured serious pitching woes, injuries to several key offensive players, and even a changing of the guard at manager.

Yet, as the calendar turns to July, there may be enough intrigue surrounding this offense to believe that they can still turn the ship around.

In the month of June, Baltimore was fourth in wRC+ (112) and sixth in OPS (.753) and wOBA (.327). They also have the seventh-best record in their last 30 games (18-12) in MLB, a sign that things are starting to trend in the right direction.

While Adley Rutschman hit the shelf at an inopportune time, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg recently returned to the lineup, and Gunnar Henderson is really starting to round back into form.

If Baltimore’s pitching staff can improve even slightly from where they were to start the year, it would go a long way for this ball club.

From Opening Day through the end of May, the Orioles had the third-worst staff ERA in MLB at 5.38. Since the beginning of June, though, they’ve improved that mark to 4.28.

It’s still far from where they want to be, as the starting rotation still boasts a 5.06 ERA over that stretch, but their bullpen has been noticeably improved, rocking the third-best FIP in MLB (3.42) since the beginning of June.

Point being, there’s been glimmers of hope lately for Baltimore. If they can get their offensive core healthy all at once for the second half, this team may still have some life left in them.

4. Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were one of baseball’s best stories in 2024, going from a 56-win ball club in 2023 to 86 wins last season and making it all the way to the ALDS. Looking to build upon that magical run, things haven’t been quite the same for Kansas City in 2025.

It’s been at no fault of the pitching staff, though. All season long, the Royals have boasted one of the top rotations in MLB. Royals starters rank in the top 10 in baseball in both ERA (3.49) and FIP (3.76) this season. Spearheaded by the duo of Kris Bubic and Seth Lugo, their rotation has been essential in keeping this team afloat.

Their bullpen hasn’t been too shabby, either, with the sixth-best ERA in baseball on the year. However, as was the case last season, the offense continues to be a major shortcoming of this ball club.

As a team, they rank 27th in MLB in wRC+ (82) and 26th in OPS (.664). Bobby Witt Jr. has continued to be one of the best shortstops in the American League, and Maikel Garcia has emerged as a legitimate weapon in the lineup for Kansas City. But beyond those two names, production throughout the rest of the lineup has been rather bare.

With the Royals sitting 14 games back from the division-leading Tigers, their best path to October baseball will be via a wild-card spot.

Currently sitting six games below .500 and 4.5 games back from a playoff position, the Royals will continue to lean upon their pitching staff and hope the offense can pick up the slack in the second half of the season.

Like Baltimore, they have the advantage being in a weaker American League, and we saw last year the damage this team can do with such a strong pitching staff despite having a below-average offense. They have to turn things around quickly, but don’t count out this Royals team just yet.

3. Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have easily been the biggest disappointment in the National League. They shockingly sit eight games below .500, which puts them fourth in the NL East standings behind the Miami Marlins and 7.5 games out of a wild-cart spot.

But even with the disappointing start, this is still the big-bad Braves who have been one of baseball’s juggernauts for the the better part of the past decade.

Shockingly, though, they’re 23rd in MLB in wRC+ (95) and 22nd in OPS (.697) on the year, a massive step back from where this team has been in recent seasons.

Albeit some players have wildly underperformed expectations this season, but much of the core remains the same from the Braves teams that have been near the top of the offensive leaderboards in previous years, making their sluggish start that much more puzzling.

Pitching wise, Atlanta has been great this year. However, the injury bug has bit them quite hard in recent weeks. First, AJ Smith-Shawver hit the shelf with Tommy John surgery in early June. Then, after putting together a terrific stretch of starts, Chris Sale hit the 60-day injured list with a fractured ribcage a few weeks back.

Finally, it was announced on Wednesday afternoon that Spencer Schwellenbach is headed to the 15-day injured list with a fractured elbow, adding to the hill that the Braves will need to climb in order to reach the postseason.

On a positive note, Spencer Strider is starting to regain his form on the mound after his return from elbow surgery and the hamstring injury he suffered earlier in the season. Moreover, Ronald Acuña Jr. is back to his MVP form and will look to carry this team throughout the rest of the season.

A turnaround in Atlanta will be predicated on the offense kicking things into gear sooner rather than later. There’s too much talent in this lineup to be producing like a bottom-10 offensive unit in baseball the rest of the way.

We’ve seen what this offense is capable of in years past, and there’s reason to believe this unit is still capable of putting together that type of run in the second half of the 2025 season. Being in a very competitive National League is certainly working against them, but the star power in this lineup is too impressive to count this team out.

2. Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins might be the most polarizing team in Major League Baseball. They sit just a half game ahead of the Royals in the division standings at 40-45, however their ceiling has proven to be higher than the Royals’ this season.

After starting the season 13-20, the Twins rattled off an incredible 13 straight wins in the middle of May, looking like the team many believe they could be when things are clicking. Unfortunately for Twins fans, it has been anything but smooth sailing in 2025.

After an 18-8 record in May, the Twins went 9-18 in June. At one point, the team lost 11 of 12 games in the heart of the month.

That perfectly captures the duality of Twins baseball. When they’re rolling, they can be one of the best teams in the American League. However, when they’re cold, the bottom can fall out quickly. But for for a team as streaky as Minnesota, one hot month could be enough to propel this ball club back into the postseason conversation.

Even in their dreadful month of June, the Twins still managed to put up the seventh-best team wRC+ in baseball at 107. The problem, though, is that their pitching staff had the worst team ERA in the month of June at a mark over 6.00.

But the Twins have a better pitching staff than that ERA indicates. In the month of May, the Twins had the fourth-best staff ERA in baseball (3.11) with a bullpen that was the best in the AL and a rotation that was top five in terms of ERA.

Again, the Twins are a streaky baseball team, but their peak can be lethal if all the parts can come together at once. If they can put together more peaks than valleys across the next few months, they have the talent to compete.

1. Texas Rangers

There was a lot of buzz surrounding the Texas Rangers heading into 2025, and for good reason. In fact, they were my pick to most improve their win total from a season ago heading into Opening Day. But what’s transpired to this point isn’t quite what most fans were expecting.

If you were to just look at the Rangers’ record heading into July, one might assume the offense has carried the team to this point while the pitching has faltered, right? Well, not so fast.

The Rangers’ pitching staff has been one of the best in all of Major League Baseball. Their rotation is tied for the best ERA in MLB at a 3.25, and their bullpen ERA of 3.39 is top five in the sport. The pitching staff has held its own, clearly, but the bats have surprisingly struggled so far this season, keeping this team from reaching its full potential.

Texas is 26th in MLB in team wRC+ (87) and wOBA (.292) and 27th in OPS (.662). It’s a conversation that greatly resembles that of the Royals — tremendous pitching but poor offensive production — except the Rangers are considered to have a much higher ceiling given the litany of star power throughout their lineup.

However, some of those stars simply haven’t produced to this point in the year.

Sure, injuries have played a big part in this team’s poor offensive numbers, but many of their bats have struggled relative to their career averages as well. At full strength, this lineup has the firepower to compete with any in the American League. They just haven’t been at full strength very often this season.

Similar to the Braves, though, we’ve all seen what this offense is capable of when it gets going. Except unlike the Braves, they have the benefit in being in a much easier AL, and their pitching has a higher ceiling than Atlanta in light of the aforementioned injuries to the Braves’ starting rotation.

It hasn’t been pretty for the Rangers this season. However, few would be surprised if they rattled off a hot stretch in the coming months. If the offense can slowly start to build momentum in the coming weeks and the pitching staff can continue to perform the way that it has, this team can still make some noise in the AL playoff picture.