Kansas City Royals Spring Training Storylines to Follow

The Kansas City Royals enter spring training in a situation they haven’t been in since 2016, fresh off a postseason appearance.

Spring training provides the baseball world with a primer for how an organization’s top stars could fare in the season ahead; a glimpse into what the next generation could look like, and whether any under-the-radar names have a shot at breaking camp with the big league squad.

The Royals’ newfound optimism will inevitably provide different storylines than in years past, ones that will be geared less towards the future and more towards their current culture of contending.

That being said, with a quieter offseason than many would’ve expected from a team that gave the eventual American League pennant-winning New York Yankees a good run in the ALDS, there are still some storylines that lean somewhat pessimistic.

With such a variety of storylines to consume this spring, let’s dive into some of the top ones to monitor for Kansas City.

Stats updated as of Feb. 24, 2025.

Who’s On Second?

After trading for Jonathan India early in the offseason, the Royals appeared to have their second baseman and leadoff man all wrapped into one.

However, the Royals still have Michael Massey on the roster, who happens to be fresh off a solid showing in October, with a .304 AVG, .795 OPS and 122 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances, when the Royals bats failed to consistently show up as whole in both the Wild Card and ALDS rounds.

The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year in India has a better offensive track record, higher ceiling and lower floor. Even from a 2024 standpoint, he still had the slight edge over Massey with a 108 wRC+ to Massey’s 102.

However, from a run production standpoint, both have home run capabilities in and around 15 with 50+ RBI RBI potential also in the chamber.

While both could look similar from an offensive lens, with India likely having the edge, the defensive aspect of their games tells a different story.

Massey brought a lot more to the table in 2024 in the field than India did. He posted an even zero DRS with three outs above average, compared to India’s -10 DRS and one OAA (which although lower than Massey’s was the first positive OAA total of his career).

What’s also been an interesting wrinkle here is that in two spring training appearances already, India has found himself starting in left field. Looking at the other side of things, Massey has found himself starting at second.

Perhaps Matt Quatraro and Co. already see a vision for this lineup right off the jump, and if India plays well in left, then this matter may be solved just as quickly as it came to be. Regardless though, it’s still worth watching how things develop in the coming weeks.

Can Anyone Step Up for the Royals in the Outfield?

India as a left fielder might be an answer to this question, but there are plenty more names in the outfield mix that will play a role in 2025, all of which largely underwhelmed last season.

The Royals outfield in 2024 was primarily occupied by a five-man mix of MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco and Garrett Hampson, none of whom exceeded a 94 wRC+ (Blanco) or 1.4 fWAR (Isbel).

Looking to 2025, Hampson’s 59 wRC+ is out of the fold, but if India sticks in left they essentially replaced his bench bat with a 108 wRC+ starter.

That being said, to have a 108 wRC+ hitter lead your outfield is not the most reassuring thing in the world, especially for a team with their sights set on the postseason.

Can Melendez become a more well-rounded hitter to match his raw power?

Can Blanco find more ways to get on base and utilize his blistering speed?

Is there any of the 2021 or 2022 .800+ OPS hitter left in Renfroe?

Can Isbel be more than just a defense-first profile ballplayer?

Then, from an outside perspective, could Drew Waters play a role in the Royals outfield in 2025 after a 127 wRC+ season for Triple-A Omaha?

The odds of the best-case scenarios occurring across the board for these five questions are low. However, it shouldn’t be a shock if one or two of these names step up even in a marginal way in 2025, which would, in turn, provide more optimism to what currently looks like a bleak outfield situation.

How Close Is Jac Caglianone to the Big Leagues?

To round off the positional storylines, we move to one that’s more future-focused, revolving around the Royals’ no. 1 overall prospect according to Just Baseball’s rankings: Jac Caglianone.

Last year’s sixth overall pick in the MLB Draft lit up the world in his final year at Florida, slashing .419/.544/.875 with 35 HR, 72 RBI and a 197 wRC+.

However, he didn’t necessarily have that same impact in his pro debut, posting a .241/.302/.388 slash line with just a 96 wRC+ in High-A Quad City.

That being said, reports are that the 22-year-old first baseman has been turning heads in camp this spring, with Bobby Witt Jr. identifying him as the player that’s surprised him the most, according to Jack Johnson of Locked on Royals.

Full quote:

“You go around the clubhouse and you see Jac. Jac Caglianone. Just how he sticks out. From how big his hands are and just how big of a person he is.

The BP rounds he’s taken. Just how kind of a kid he is. It’s great to see.” #Royals https://t.co/hBQrLkma6M

— Jack Johnson (@JohnyJ_15) February 18, 2025

Our prospect expert Aram Leighton placed a 2026 ETA on Caglianone, and with Vinnie Pasquantino firmly having a hold on the first base role at the big level, he’s not someone to watch in the hopes that he’ll crack the Opening Day roster.

However, spring training will give us a better idea of where he will start the 2025 season after only reaching High-A in 2024. It’ll also give us an idea of whether or not he can hold his own against big league competition in hopes of possibly exceeding expectations with a late-season call-up.

What Seth Lugo Will the Royals Get?

After he signed a three-year, $45 million deal last winter, I hesitate to say many saw the brilliant season Lugo crafted coming.

On his way to a second-place finish in AL Cy Young voting in 2024, he provided the Royals with half of the perfect one-two punch alongside Cole Ragans atop their rotation. He helped the staff to finish within the top five in MLB in ERA, FIP, WHIP and fWAR.

Normally you’d like to give a guy the benefit of the doubt after a season like that. However, the underlying metrics don’t paint the most confidence-instilling picture.

Lugo’s K-rate and whiff rate both fell under the 40th percentile, and his hard-hit rate and AVG exit velocity landed below the 60th percentile, along with his expected metrics (xERA and xBA), according to Baseball Savant.

That being said, there are some reasons to hold out hope for another impressive season in 2025.

The fact he threw nine individual pitches in 2024, with many of them bearing sub-.250 AVGs and sub-.400 SLGs, gives him the diversity in his pitch mix to keep hitters on their toes.

The way he managed to limit walks to an 86th-percentile 5.7% rate is also a good sign when it comes to limiting unnecessary traffic on the basepaths.

Lugo also had great splits both home and away, with a 3.36 ERA at Kauffman Stadium and an even better 2.62 ERA on the road, indicating his numbers aren’t the product of being a home or road merchant.

Is it fair to say that he’ll be a Cy Young finalist once again in 2025? No.

However, spring training will give us the first indication of whether or not he’s closer to the top-end 3.00 ERA arm he was in 2024 or the more solid middle-of-the-rotation mid-3.00s ERA arm he was in his return to starting in 2023.

How Will Kris Bubic Fare as a Starter?

Bubic was one of the bright spots in the Royals 2024 bullpen upon his return from Tommy John surgery in July.

In 30.1 innings of work across 27 outings, the 27-year-old was phenomenal, throwing to the tune of a 2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, .224 BAA, 11.57 K/9 and 1.48 BB/9.

When you pair this with the positive trajectory he was on for the three starts he made in 2023 before hitting the IL, where he threw to a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-3.00 FIP, it’s no wonder the Royals have the desire to have him compete for a spot back in the starting staff in 2025, as per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers.

The question, though, is how will Bubic’s stuff play in a full season as a starter? After all, the last full sample size we got from the southpaw was a 5.58 ERA campaign in 27 starts (28 outings in total) in 2022.

His first start of the spring looked promising enough, as he surrendered one run off two hits and struck out a pair in a couple innings of work on Sunday afternoon.

All that’s left to do now is wait and see whether or not Bubic will harness some of that lights-out relief stuff in a starting role and make his solid ZiPS projections a reality.

Who’s the Royals’ Closer?

How so much can change in a matter of months. The Royals went from having no legitimate closing option before the trade deadline last season to having two excellent closing-worthy arms by the time spring training rolled around.

Lucas Erceg has blossomed into one of the league’s better relief arms after being dealt to the Royals and finally getting his clear shot to close games.

In 25.0 innings with Kansas City, the 29-year-old posted 11 saves while pitching to a 2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.84 WHIP, .194 BAA, 11.16 K/9 and 1.08 BB/9. That performance led to consideration from our voting panel for the Top 20 Relievers in MLB, although he just narrowly missed the list.

However, the Royals opted to bring in veteran closer Carlos Estévez later on in the free agency window, creating a bit of competition for who gets the ninth inning.

Last season, Estévez posted a career-best 2.45 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 0.91 WHIP and .191 BAA in 55.0 innings between the Angels and the Phillies.

Erceg definitely has the edge in underlying metrics, but Estévez has the advantage when it comes to prior closing experience, having saved a combined 57 games over the past two years. That could make Erceg look more useful in a fireman role in the later innings.

Regardless though, this is the first chance we’ll get to witness them in the same ‘pen and catch a glimpse of how the dynamic between them could work this season.