Top Notes From the Kansas City Royals ZiPS Projections for 2025

The Kansas City Royals are set to enter 2025 as one of MLB’s most intriguing teams after defying all odds and reaching their first postseason in nine years, thus rapidly accelerating their competitive timeline.

They did this on the backs of an MVP-worthy performance from their face of the franchise, Bobby Witt Jr.; another All-Star performance from veteran backstop Salvador Perez; a top-loaded pitching staff featuring Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha; and a bullpen that came into its own in the second-half thanks to some inspiring performances from names like Lucas Erceg.

While hopes are high in Kansas City after their recent success, the offseason has been quieter than some may have expected for a team that gave the eventual American League pennant winners, the New York Yankees, a real run for their money in the ALDS.

They brought back Wacha along with Michael Lorenzen for the rotation, added experienced closer Carlos Estévez to the back end of the bullpen and traded for Jonathan India to shore up the middle infield, but as solid as those additions are, none of them are really flashy “in your face” type moves.

So, as spring training approaches and we get closer to officially closing the chapter on the year that was in 2024, now comes the time to project what this team might look like in 2025.

To do so, Dan Szymborski over at FanGraphs used his ZiPS projection model to forecast what might be in store for each piece of the Royals’ roster this season.

To fully grasp how this model works, I encourage you to read this article explaining all things ZiPS.

Like I said earlier, the Royals are as intriguing a group as any, so let’s dive into what could possibly be in store for Kansas City this season.

Royals ZiPS: Position Players

Apart from Witt, and to a lesser extent Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals were primarily carried by their pitching staff in 2024.

While their 2025 lineup is still built very similarly to its 2024 version, there’s plenty of above-average talent that makes this Royals team a scrappy bunch and not one to be taken lightly.

Here are the biggest takeaways from their position player projections:

• It’s Bobby’s world, we’re just living in it – After Witt’s AL MVP runner-up season in 2024, the ZiPS model looks fondly on the 24-year-old shortstop. He’s projected for a .288/.343/.517 slash line with a 135 wRC+ and 6.1 fWAR. That is the fourth highest projected fWAR total in all of baseball, behind Aaron Judge (7.7), Shohei Ohtani (6.5) and Juan Soto (6.5).
  
  From a team standpoint, Witt’s 6.1 fWAR is significantly higher than Perez’s second best 2.8 fWAR projection, while his 135 wRC+ is also noticeably above Pasquantino’s 121 predicted posting.

• A forecasted Pasquatch sighting – Speaking of Pasquantino’s projected 121 wRC+, ZiPS seems bought into the notion that’s he set for a breakout year at the plate in 2025. A 121 wRC+ would be 13 points higher than the 108 tally he posted in 2024.
  
  It is important to note, though, that the model was also bullish on him ahead of last season, as it had a 123 wRC+ projection for him. So now with a favorable outlook for a second consecutive year, the proof will be in the pudding for the 27-year-old as to whether this is finally the year it all clicks for him at the dish.

• India will make some noise as the leadoff man – When the Royals acquired the former Rookie of the Year winner this winter, he immediately looked like an upgrade at second base. What he also provides them with is a viable leadoff man, something that they were in desperate need of.
  
  In 2024, the one-hole was the worst spot in their lineup, as their leadoff batters generated just a .228/.270/.334 slash line with a 66 wRC+. This wasn’t just bad compared to other spots in their batting order; Kansas City’s leadoff spot was the worst in all of baseball by wRC+.
  
  Inserting India into the leadoff role immediately addresses this issue, as the second baseman spent the majority of his time hitting out of that spot for the Reds in 2024. As Cincinnati’s leadoff man, India slashed .236/.353/.384 with a 104 wRC+.
  
  ZiPS has him projected for a 111 wRC+ with an impressive .353 OBP, which ranks among the top 25 in all of baseball (T-25th). That makes him a perfect choice to be the table-setter for the usual suspects in the heart of the order.

• It’s not all doom and gloom in the outfield – The outfield is where Royals fans have turned their attention recently. Spring training commences in less than two weeks, and the team has yet to make a move to address what was arguably their biggest position weakness entering the offseason.
  
  Last season, the Royals outfield was a bottom feeder across the board, sitting 25th or lower in fWAR, wRC+, AVG, OBP, SLG, HR and RBI. This was in large part due to their three main outfield options, MJ Melendez (80 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR), Hunter Renfroe (95 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR) and Kyle Isbel (81 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR), being below average contributors at the plate.
  
  This year, ZiPS seems to trend more on the optimistic side of things in regard to the Royals outfield. Melendez is projected for an offensive bounce-back with a 106 wRC+, .747 OPS and 20 homers.
  
  If Nelson Velázquez gets the 472 plate appearance ZiPS has him at, he too is in store for a rebound year, trending towards average with a 99 projected wRC+ (up 23 points from 2024) with 17 homers and 60 driven in.

• Drew Waters could usurp Kyle Isbel in center – Adding to the outfield optimism, we turn our attention to center field. Kyle Isbel largely held down the fort there in 2024, and while his defense is sound and he’s plus on the basepaths, as we’ve discussed already, his bat leaves a lot to be desired.
  
  According to ZiPS though, a better option in center might already be on the 40-man: Drew Waters. Fresh off a productive year in Triple-A Omaha, where he slashed .290/.379/.494 with a 127 wRC+, Waters is projected at a 101 wRC+ with a .722 OPS, 10+ HR and 50+ RBI in over 450 plate appearances. He also adds a bit more speed to the mix with 15 projected stolen bases compared to Isbel’s 10.
  
  While his defensive capabilities may be inferior to those of Isbel, a Triple-A season like the one he just had in 2024 may be enough for Matt Quatraro to consider switching things up in center to help boost his team’s abysmal outfield offense from the year prior.

• More power in the lineup for 2025 – The Royals sat 20th as a team in homers with 170 in 2024, while Witt and Perez were their only two hitters to post 20+ HR. Just four additional names mustered double-digit tallies: Pasquantino, Melendez, Renfroe and Michael Massey.
  
  ZiPS has the Royals projected to fare much better up top in the power department this season. Witt, Perez, Pasquantino and Melendez are all projected at 20+ HR. In total, eight names on their current projected 26-man roster (per RosterResource) are in the double digits, with Renfroe, Massey, India and Velázquez added to the fold. If you add Waters to the mix, that makes nine.
  
  Considering Baseball Savant’s Park Factor has Kauffman Stadium as the fourth most favorable big league ballpark to hit in – but one of the hardest stadiums to homer in – an uptick in power could be huge for a Royals offense in need of a boost of some sort.

Royals ZiPS: Pitching Staff

If there was one constant to the 2024 season for Kansas City, it was the strength of their starting pitching, which ranked top five in several major statistics, including ERA (2nd), FIP (4th) and WHIP (4th).

In terms of the bullpen, it trended in the right direction in the second half after the acquisitions of promising controllable arms like Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, as well as an inspiring return from injury from Kris Bubic.

With many of the faces behind the team’s success in 2024 still in the mix for this season, there’s reason to believe that 2025 can be another solid year for the Royals on the mound.

Here are the top takeaways from their pitching projections:

• Ragans continues to lead the way – It was another top-notch campaign for the Royals bona fide ace, as Ragans finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting with a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, .213 AVG against and an AL-best 10.77 K/9.
  
  While ZiPS may not see that same level of production for Ragans in 2025, he’s still the outright leader of this rotation, even over his teammate Lugo, who finished two spots ahead of him in Cy Young voting. Ragans leads the charge for the Royals starting group in projected ERA (3.51), FIP (3.48), WHIP (1.23), AVG against (.226) and K/9 (10.02).

• Lugo’s coming back down to earth – After having what can only be described as an out-of-body experience in his age-34 season, with a 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, Lugo is slated to have a slightly subdued year in 2025.
  
  The ZiPS model projects him to post respectable but undeniably inferior numbers this coming season, with his ERA and FIP both climbing to the high-3.00s (3.81 and 3.96, respectively), his WHIP jumping above 1.20 (1.24) and his AVG against also rising, with opposing bats expected to hit .250 off of him.
  
  Moreover, he’s set to return to being more of the reliable innings eater he was when the Royals inked him to a three-year contract ahead of last season. It may not be Cy Young-worthy, but there’s a lot of value to be had in a reliable innings eater with a sub-4.00 ERA.

• Bubic could be an X-factor – After making a remarkably quick return to the mound after Tommy John surgery, Bubic was a real spark to the Royals ‘pen down the stretch, finishing the season with a 2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, .224 AVG against, 11.57 K/9 and 1.48 BB/9 in 30.1 innings of work.
  
  Come 2025 though, the word on the street is the Royals plan to transition Bubic back into the rotation, as per Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
  
  The thought process here is that he’s likely to build off some of the success he saw last season, as well as in 2023 before he hit the IL, when he tossed 16.0 innings across three starts to the tune of a 3.94 ERA and a 2.63 FIP. This would be a way to address the hole in the bottom of the rotation left after KC traded Brady Singer to Cincy.
  
  ZiPS projects a mixed role for the 27-year-old southpaw with 15 starts in 33 total appearances. Whether or not he spends his time in the starting staff or in the ‘pen, Bubic is estimated to be a solid contributor, with a top-three projected finish amongst Royals starting options in ERA (third at 4.00), FIP (second at 3.81), AVG against (second at .241) and K/9 (second at 9.03).

• Tandem closers – After signing Estévez late last month, the Royals seemed to have a competition for the ninth inning on their hands between him and Erceg.
  
  The ZiPS model seems to favor the experienced veteran in Estévez, forecasting 21 saves for him in 2025. However, he’s not projected to be the sole anchor of the ‘pen, with Erceg slated to record double-digit saves as well (11).
  
  Regardless of who’s closing though, it’s clear that between those two and Harvey, the three newest additions to the Royals bullpen have the crucial innings all but accounted for in 2025.

• Let’s hear it for John Schreiber – While the focus of the Royals bullpen will be on their talented trio, the veteran righty Schreiber looks poised to continue to make a name for himself in the ‘pen if ZiPS has any say in it.
  
  Following a respectable 3.66 ERA season in 2024, the model projects the 30-year-old veteran to be the club’s best reliever outside the big three. He matches their 0.5 fWAR totals while sitting fourth in ERA (3.74), FIP (3.62), WHIP (1.30) and AVG against (.236).

Royals ZiPS: Final Thoughts

The Royals earned their success in 2024 by being a gritty team that seemed to find ways to win between the margins, whether that be through defense, speed or timely hitting, all while supporting a strong pitching staff and solid back end of the bullpen.

In 2025, it seems likely they’ll continue to use that same sort of strategy. Outside of Witt, there’s no outright star in this lineup; the rotation is led by as formidable a trio as any in Ragans, Lugo and Wacha; and the key innings out of the ‘pen have that same 2024 second-half vibe (if not better).

This is a team that managed to finish with 86 wins in 2024, and ZiPS projects them to win between 82-85 games in 2025. With the roster looking similar in both the lineup and the rotation, and arguably better in the bullpen, a mid-80-win finish next season is not a far-fetched prediction whatsoever for this squad.