Three Trades the Guardians Can Make If They Want To Go All-In

Just two seasons ago, the Cleveland Guardians sat one game back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central as the Aug. 1 trade deadline rolled around. 

With a 53-49 record, Cleveland made just one minor move before going on a 39-30 run to close the season, winning the division in the process.

However, in the postseason, the Guardians’ offense barely scored in a two-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round (they outscored the Rays 3-1 in the series), and they went on to finish one game short of a trip to the ALCS. They held a 2-1 series lead over the New York Yankees in the ALDS and couldn’t close the deal.

It’s by no means a stretch of the imagination to say that a more active deadline might have made the difference between Cleveland’s ALDS exit and an expanded playoff run.

So, with a better team this season, the Guardians can’t afford to make the same mistake.

Where the Guardians Stand

The AL Central leaders enter play on Monday with a 59-39 record (third-best in MLB) and a plus-84 run differential (fifth-best).

Even with their successful first half, the Guardians have holes on their roster that will need to be filled if they want to compete with the likes of the Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros.

While the Cleveland bullpen has been by far the best unit in baseball, the starting rotation has struggled throughout the season. Guardians starters rank 24th in MLB in ERA (4.48), 26th in FIP (4.62), 26th in innings pitched (498.2), 18th in K-BB% (13.5%), and 25th in WHIP (1.35).

Sure, Gavin Williams is slowly rounding into form after returning from injury, but with Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie currently in the minors due to their poor performance for the big league club this year, the Guardians undoubtedly need to add a starter at the deadline.

Not only do the Guardians need to find someone they trust with the ball in the postseason, but they could use another arm to take some of the load off the bullpen before October even arrives.

On the offensive side of things, the Guardians have been much improved this year, finding a bit of slug in their traditionally contact-oriented lineup. They rank 12th in MLB in wRC+ (103), 14th in home runs (109), fifth in strikeout rate (19.9%), and 10th in runs scored (462).

That’s certainly an improvement from where they’ve sat in recent years. Still, Cleveland feels like a team that could maybe use another bat. While not a must-have with the way All-Stars Steven Kwan, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, and David Fry have been swinging it this year, perhaps a lower-in-the-order hitter could offer the lineup a bit of extra length come the playoffs.

Daniel Schneemann and Angel Martinez have been revelations during their short time in the majors, but it may be difficult to trust such a young duo without some insurance behind — or alongside — them.

With all that in mind, we’re going to look at three different trades the Guardians could make to bolster their roster for a World Series push.

Trade 1: Acquire Either Jack Flaherty or Yusei Kikuchi

There are a number of starting pitching options supposedly available at this year’s deadline, but given (a) the Guardians’ financial reputation and (b) the number of options already on their roster who they likely believe can be contributors at the major league level in 2025, it would make sense for Cleveland to target a rental starter.

Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi are the two preeminent rentals likely to change teams ahead of this deadline, and both have looked solid enough to trust in the postseason.

A playoff rotation of Tanner Bibee, Williams, Kikuchi/Flaherty, and Ben Lively might not be an ideal foursome, but with Cleveland’s bullpen, it doesn’t have to be. 

Flaherty or Kikuchi?

With the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers facing off this past weekend north of the border, Flaherty may have established himself as the more attractive option of the two. 

While one start doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, the 28-year-old righty has flashed some of the best stuff in the majors this season. He ranks among the MLB leaders in almost every advanced stat, including K-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA.

And while Flaherty stood out on Friday, Kikuchi had a strong outing of his own on Saturday, even if the final line wouldn’t suggest that to be the case.

The 33-year-old southpaw gave up four earned runs over 5.0 innings. However, most of those runs were inherited runners that Toronto’s bullpen allowed to score.

Kikuchi finished with eight strikeouts and two walks on an afternoon that probably could have ended up looking a little better than the final score.

Now, the next question is what the Guardians would have to give up to land either starter.

If we look at comparable trades for postseason-capable arms on expiring contracts, we can find a few cases that offer insight into what the going price may be for a pitcher similar to Flaherty or Kikuchi.

Just last summer, Flaherty himself was dealt from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Orioles for Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom — a pair of top-20 Orioles prospects at the time — and Zack Showalter.

Of course, Flaherty is a much different pitcher now than he was at this time last year, so let’s look instead at his Cardinals teammate, Jordan Montgomery, who was dealt to the Texas Rangers last summer alongside relieve Chris Stratton.

St. Louis received Thomas Saggese, Tekoah Roby, and John King in the deal. Saggese and Roby were both top-15 prospects in the Texas farm system, and King had a number of major league innings.

This deal feels a little more in the range of what Flaherty and Kikuchi might draw. Without the added reliever in this trade, let’s say the Guardians would need to send two top-15ish prospects in their system to land one of the starters.

The Return: OF George Valera and SS/3B Alex Mooney

Valera ranks as Just Baseball’s No. 12 prospect in the Guardians organization, and Mooney checks in just outside of the top 15 but has been putting together a high season at High-A Lake County.

What the Blue Jays and Tigers may demand in return for their pitchers will vary, but from a Cleveland perspective, this deal matches what we lined out as a potential package for a rental starter.

Valera burst onto the scene in 2021 as one of the top prospects in Cleveland’s organization but has been chasing that success ever since.

The 23-year-old has spent the majority of the past two seasons at Triple-A and hasn’t been able to muster an OPS over .730. But he might be the type of close-to-the-majors player a team can talk themselves into.

His struggles have been accompanied by injury trouble, including a broken hamate bone in 2023. Regardless, Valera has always posted excellent walk rates and has flashed above-average power, making him an intriguing prospect.

Mooney, meanwhile, has a .787 OPS, 10 home runs and 31 stolen bases through 73 games in 2024. He has spent most of his time on the left side of the infield.

After the Guardians put together an extremely strong draft, led by No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana, the front office might be more willing to move some of the other prospects currently in their system.

Trade 2: Win the Brent Rooker Sweepstakes

Yes, we did say that Cleveland didn’t need to add an impact bat at the deadline, but if general manager Mike Chernoff and Co. want to take their swing at a World Series in 2024, Rooker might be the best bat they could add.

The most difficult factor in a Rooker deal will be matching what will surely be a massive asking price by the Oakland Athletics. Rooker is under team control through 2027 and currently boasts a 168 wRC+, 22 home runs and 3.2 fWAR through just 86 games.

However, Rooker is 29 and has little defensive value, so that should cut into any potential return. 

Once again, finding comparable deals is an inexact science, but there have been some sluggers with years of control dealt in recent years.

Let’s start in 2021, when the Yankees sent four top-30 prospects to the Texas Rangers for Joey Gallo, Joely Rodríguez and cash. Now forget everything you’ve learned about Gallo in the three seasons since, close your eyes, and remember the 136 wRC+ bat who walked nearly 20% of the time and provided defensive value across multiple positions. 

There’s a world where this could end up being a package Oakland would take for Rooker. With 3.5 years of control, he would likely require a prospect with a little more prestige to head west. 

The Return: 1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel and OF Jaison Chourio

By including two of Just Baseball’s top 10 Guardians prospects — Noel (No. 10) and Chourio (No. 4) — the package feels complete without adding any additional prospects.

In Noel, the Athletics might be able to grab a Rooker replacement. The 23-year-old first baseman has had a nice taste of the big leagues in 15 games, smashing four homers, but he has struck out in 40% of his plate appearances. 

In the world where Cleveland makes this trade, it is surely because they feel Noel’s uber-aggressive approach might cost him in the majors long-term. In other words, if the Guardians believe that Noel could approximate Rooker’s production, or if they trust him enough to hit in the postseason, then they would not even consider this deal.

But, with a World Series window open right now, getting nearly four years of Rooker might be worth this package. Chourio is still 19, in High-A, and by the time he’s likely ready to be a contributor to winning at the MLB level, José Ramírez may be wrapping up his current contract.

So yes, this is a very win-now move, but Rooker could be a perfect middle-of-the-order bat if Cleveland deems they want to push the chips in at the deadline.

Some other potential options that the Guardians could add offensively that would be cheaper than Rooker are Jesse Winker, Taylor Ward, Tommy Pham, and Paul DeJong.

Trade 3: Add a No. 4 or 5 Starter

Adding a hitter like Rooker would certainly be exciting for a Guardians lineup that has surprised in 2024, but Cleveland can not add enough starting pitching at the deadline.

Whether they swing big and try to land a Garrett Crochet-type is still up for debate, but if the Guardians stick to the most likely path, which seems to be adding a rental starter as we went through above, they could also shop at the lower end of the market, as well.

Whether it’s a deal for a Tyler Anderson or Erick Fedde-type or a Cal Quantrill reunion, there are options for this team to make multiple starting pitching moves.

This deal would be more about the rest of the regular season than the playoffs, but with a chance to secure a first-round bye, Cleveland should be shooting to not only end the season atop the AL Central but as one of the top two teams in the American League.

Like Rooker, most of the arms that could prove to be difference-makers — outside of Flaherty and Kikuchi — have multiple years of control left, increasing their value.

Obviously, the three names listed above are of varying degrees of quality and would each command a different package if dealt, but if we look back at the Tyler Mahle deadline deal from 2022 as a potential high-point for any of those three, a package consisting of one top-20 and one top-30 prospect seems reasonable to get a deal done.

The Return: LHP Parker Messick and LHP Will Dion

Perhaps with a draft class that ended up being very pitching-heavy, combined with their organization’s history of success developing arms, the Guardians will be willing to part with some pitching in the high minors.

Messick, Just Baseball’s No. 14 Guardians prospect, would highlight the package as a potential back-of-the-rotation arm.

Dion is currently pitching in Triple-A and struggling for the first time in his pro career. The 24-year-old would ultimately be a trade piece teams would have to convince themselves they can turn into an effective big-league starter.

We’ll know more in the coming week about how Cleveland fares in signing some of its draftees, but after selecting 16 arms, it seems like the Guardians could part with some of the pitching depth within their farm system.

The Guardians have proven they are not the team to empty the farm in pursuit of a title. But with the club in an excellent position to win the division and coming off an excellent draft, perhaps 2024 is the year to buck that trend and go all-in in pursuit of their first World Series title since 1948.