Does Burnes’ Injury Make the D-Backs Sellers?
After already getting off to a slow start, how does Corbin Burnes' injury change the trajectory of the Arizona Diamondbacks' season?
The Arizona Diamondbacks made a splash this offseason by bringing in one of the top arms on the open market in Corbin Burnes.
The move was somewhat surprising, but it truly felt like the perfect match. Burnes deservingly earned the long-term contract that he was seeking, and the Diamondbacks added a proven ace to help lead this team back to the World Series.
The 30-year-old hurler was settling in quite nicely with his new ball club until he received some disheartening news following his most recent start.
In his outing on Sunday, Burnes exited early after experiencing elbow discomfort in the fifth inning. This was after the velocity on his cutter dropped a couple of ticks, clearly indicating that something wasn’t right.
While the extent of his injury is yet to be determined, many immediately feared there was damage to his UCL. The Diamondbacks placed their ace on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation, but Burnes is seeking a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache to further examinate his arm.
His timetable to return is still up in the air, but Burnes appears to be looking at an extended absence at a time when the ball club can’t afford to take a step back.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 4.
Without Burnes, This Rotation Is in Even More Trouble
Things have not gone according to plan for the D-Backs, and their struggling rotation has played a big part in that.
Arizona’s rotation ranks 24th in Major League Baseball with an ERA of 4.45. Longtime staff ace Zac Gallen carries a 5.13 ERA into June; Brandon Pfaadt got blitzed for eight runs without recording an out in his most recent outing, ballooning his ERA over 5.00; and several starters have already dealt with injuries through the first two months of the season.
The lone bright spot in the rotation has been Burnes, and it’s hard to imagine where this pitching staff would be without him.
Burnes is pacing the rotation in ERA at a solid mark of 2.66, placing him sixth among qualified National League starters. While his quality of contact against has seen a bit of an uptick this season, he’s generating ground balls at the highest rate of his career, and his strikeout stuff is starting to trend back in the right direction.
What’s more, he was really starting to settle in as of late. Across his most recent seven starts, he’s pitching to the tune of a 1.67 ERA while striking out over a batter per inning.
Needless to say, it’s incredibly unfortunate to see one of the game’s best go down with what appears to be a significant arm injury. For a Diamondbacks team that is sitting two games below .500 and fourth in the NL West standings, losing Burnes only adds more pressure to turn things around.
What Does This Mean for the D-Backs?
Not only is the NL West arguably the most loaded division in MLB, but the National League in general is incredibly competitive. In order for Arizona to make the postseason, their most likely path to October baseball is through a wild-card spot.
To put things in perspective, the 37-23 Philadelphia Phillies, who recently came in at No. 4 on Just Baseball’s power rankings, currently hold a wild-card spot.
Moreover, teams on the outside of the postseason looking in at this moment are the Giants, Brewers, Reds, Braves, and of course, the Diamondbacks, who sit four games out of a playoff spot.
The point here isn’t to start tracking the wild-card race with roughly four months of baseball left to play, but instead highlight that there are some very good ball clubs vying for playoff spots. The D-Backs cannot afford to fall too far down the standings if they’re looking to compete, because it will be very difficult to climb out of a sizable hole, even with a top-five offense in baseball.
At the same time, we’re less than two months away from the 2025 MLB trade deadline, and the Diamondbacks have a plethora of assets that could net them a significant return in the coming months.
Now without Burnes in the mix, one has to wonder what impact his absence will have not only on the performance of the pitching staff, but how the front office approaches the trade deadline as we inch closer to July.
An Abundance of Valuable Trade Assets
It might feel strange to discuss trade assets in the first week of June for a ball club that had World Series aspirations heading into the season. Heck, some fans still may believe that they’re a championship-caliber squad, and that would be a reasonable belief.
It’s easy to dream on the potential of a team that ranks fourth in wRC+ (115) and is led by an electrifying MVP candidate in Corbin Carroll. But just as we saw with Arizona last season, dig too deep of a hole with poor pitching early in the season, and even the most potent offense won’t be able to salvage a playoff berth.
Thus, it’s valuable to go through this exercise given their robust number of valuable trade chips.
Looking at Arizona’s roster, the following players are on expiring contracts and are set to hit free agency at the end of the season:
- Starters: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly
- Relievers: LHP Jalen Beeks, RHP Shelby Miller
- Position Players: 3B Eugenio Suárez, 1B Josh Naylor
The Diamondbacks have not one, not two, but several significant trade chips if things go south in the coming weeks and they choose to sell off some of their expiring assets.
If players such as Gallen, Kelly, Suárez, and Naylor aren’t going to be a part of the ball club’s future, then Arizona would hold some of baseball’s most coveted assets come the July 31 trade deadline.
Gallen may be in the midst of the worst year of his career, but let’s not forget that he came into the season as a top 25 starting pitcher and has been a consistent frontline starter for years. His track record alone would net a big return.
Kelly, while not quite the caliber of starter that Gallen has been, is as consistent of a middle-of-the-rotation starter that a team can ask for, pitching to a 3.82 ERA across his seven seasons in Arizona.
Moreover, it goes without saying that Suárez and Naylor would be two of the top bats on the market if they were made available.
Suárez is currently sixth in baseball with 16 homers and has put together one of the more underappreciated careers in MLB. After putting up a 30-homer, 100-plus-RBI season a year ago, he’s on track to surpass both of those marks in 2025.
Naylor is hitting nearly .300 with a 123 wRC+. Defense might not be his specialty, but he’s a very good hitter with a proven track record. Naylor has posted a wRC+ of 118 or higher in each of his seasons dating back to 2022, providing steady, well-above-average production at first base.
It should go without saying, but whether or not the D-Backs entertain a trade for any of these pieces will largely depend on the team’s performance in the coming weeks. But after losing their ace, it’s hard to look past what this team could bring in if they decide to become sellers.
It’s Still the Arizona Diamondbacks
With all of that being said, this is still the Arizona Diamondbacks. There’s a very real possibility that they flip a switch in the coming weeks and go on a run to establish themselves as a top team in the National League once again.
We’ve seen it happen before with this team, and this roster is littered with talent.
Dating back to the beginning of the 2024 season, only the Dodgers and Yankees have a better team wRC+ and a higher fWAR among their position players than the D-Backs. Likewise, Arizona is second in MLB in runs scored over that stretch.
The problem, though, is that their staff ERA of 4.66 over that stretch is the fourth-worst mark in MLB and is only ahead of the Athletics, Marlins, and Rockies.
There’s no denying that this team can swing it with the best of them, but will the pitching staff do enough to help this team reach its full potential? That’s where the impact of Burnes’ injury looms large, providing a lot of uncertainty regarding where this team is headed moving forward.
Nobody would be shocked if the D-Backs take hold of a wild-card spot and never look back in the coming months. But on the off chance that Burnes’ loss is too much for this team to overcome, they could still come away as big winners if they cash in on some of their marquee expiring assets.
Written by
Joey Peterson is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an editor for Just Baseball. Joey covers the Milwaukee Brewers, along with general MLB topics…