Odds to Win MLB’s 2025 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (June 2025)

When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.

After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.

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MVP Odds To Start the 2025 Season

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware, and it was again Judge and Ohtani who opened up this season as the heavy-favorites to win the awards again.

But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.,

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2025

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2025 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “What is implied probability?”.

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

With -10000 odds to win the AL MVP, the sportsbooks are telling us that there is a 99.01% chance that Aaron Judge is going to win the MVP. So basically everyone else should just plan on receiving their participation trophies. That doesn’t, however, impact Cal Raleigh’s chance to win it, as the books give him +2500 odds, which has a 3.85% implied probability of winning.

Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

The beautiful thing about an MVP race, is that it is a fluid thing. If Judge hits .095 in the month of July (unlikely but you never know), Raleigh might hit .450 and tilt the odds of the MVP race. That is why you might find value in Raleigh right now, when Judge has gotten off to such a fast start that someone like Bobby Witt Jr.’s preseason odds of +475 have more than quadrupled.

2025 National League MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani’s odds have only improved from Opening Day to now, but he has not advanced out to a big lead in the race like Judge, but still remains the favorite based on the NL MVP odds.

Compared to the American League, the race is more wide-open in the National League, but the field is starting to get slightly slimmer. Last week, with five players all had odds at +1200 or better to win the award. Now we’re at two. Either way, that’s a stark difference from Judge’s American League, where there is nobody within even +10000 odds of winning the award.

AL MVP Odds: American League Favorites

Narrowing in our focus to the top five contenders to win the AL MVP in the MLB betting futures right now, what you will find is a few players who could find a narrative that leads them to upset Aaron Judge, but the road will be very long to get there.

Bobby Witt Jr. made a valiant effort to beat Judge in last year’s MVP race with a 10-win season, yet came up just short. Witt is currently trailing Judge by over 2 wins in the fWAR department, which is a wide margin for 60+ games, but one that can be narrowed over the next three-plus months.

Instead, that’s opened the door for Cal Raleigh to make up some ground. The switch-hitting backstop is having a season for the ages and could very easily end up having the best offensive year from a catcher in MLB history. His fWAR still is far off from Judge’s, but his margin is only 1.7 wins compared to Witt’s 2.5-win gap.

Judge is probably going to win the award, the odds reflect that, but it is too early to count out a budding superstar like Raleigh. If Judge falls back to the pack a little bit, and Raleigh continues to rake, you never know what can happen.

On the other hand, it is harder to believe that Jose Ramirez or someone like Gunnar Henderson will be able to compete with Judge in the stat department, but a bet on either of these players is a bet on their leadership and importance to their respective clubs.

Betting on someone other than Raleigh, Witt or Judge to win the AL MVP this year is playing the lottery. Grab a ticket of someone you’d like to follow, and no that there is a better than not chance that the ticket is not one you will be cashing in, so be cautious investing too heavily here.

Big-Time Dark Horses for AL MVP in 2025

Remember what we said at the end of the section on the betting favorites to win the AL MVP?

Unless it is a bet for Judge or Witt, any player you wager on in the American League is a lottery ticket. Some tickets have a better chance of cashing in than others, so if you are going to sprinkle anything on a dark horse, make sure you find one that can race.

For example, Julio Rodriguez hit just .207 with a .681 OPS through the first month of the season, but has since started to heat up a bit. Yet, he’s barely walking and most of his numbers are still well off the mark from where he’s been in the past.

Then there’s Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year and is somehow getting even better in 2025. The left-hander currently leads the AL in K/9 and leads the majors in BB/9. Oh, and he’s struck out over 100 batters while walking just seven. The man is a machine.

At the end of the season, 30 BBWAA members vote on each of these awards, and the criteria to earn a vote is largely based on which player racks up the best stats. Particularly, who has the most WAR tends to favor heavily on who voters will pick in the end.

Someone like Rodriguez even being in the race is a great story, but he has to thread such a specific needle to win this award that it’s hard to believe he would ever actually get there.

The moral of the story might be to stay away from buying into the J-Rod train for an improbable run to winning the AL MVP, but if you are a Mariners fan, knock yourself out.

NL MVP Odds: National League Favorites

The NL MVP race has been wide open for a while now, but a certain three-time MVP is starting to pull away from the field. Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite, but there are a few players who are all very tight based on the current odds, as plenty of stars have gotten off to fast starts to begin the 2025.

Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Corbin Carroll are all strong defensive outfielders who will see their respective WAR totals climb all year thanks to their gloves. They are also all leading their respective teams, where they are looking like the clear best player on their respective teams.

Ohtani is the favorite to win the MVP right now, but a bet for PCA, Carroll, or Tucker can all be rationalized based on their ability to rack up WAR and the upside that a small wager on one of them presents.

Is Freddie Freeman the Best Dark Horse Bet for NL MVP?

Freddie Freeman put together one of the best months in the game in May, and could easily apply a bit of pressure to his teammate Ohtani by the time this year is said and done.

Even though Freeman leads the NL in batting average, it feels like he’s going to be stuck on the outside looking in once the year comes to an end. He’s having an electric season, but he remains outside of the top-five in odds.

Beyond him, there’s a trio of Mets players, including last year’s runner-up in the NL MVP voting, Francisco Lindor. Lindor and his teammates Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have been outstanding to open the year, and the reality is that all three of them are an extended hot streak away from forcing their way into the next top-five update in the Dark Horse section of our odds.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value on betting on Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.

If there is one play in the AL right now, it is probably Cal Raleigh just because he has the potential to run down Judge in the AL MVP race, and the odds have gotten long enough for him to do it that it has become an attractive proposition for a smaller wager that can pay off big.

With that said, if you buy Raleigh now at +2500 odds and the trends continue, next week you might be able to get him at +3000, wait a little longer and it might be +3500. The best way to follow the odds is to check weekly, follow the trends, and always remember what the BBWAA voters are going to value above everything else: WAR.