Odds to Win MLB’s 2026 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (April 28)

When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites, especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.

After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware in 2024. They would keep things going again last year in 2025, with both Judge and Ohtani winning back-to-back MVP awards in their respective leagues.

Once again, Judge and Ohtani entered the 2026 season as the heavy-favorites to win, as Vegas essentially expects a healthy season from either to result in another MVP. But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2026

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2026 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “what is implied probability?”.

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

With +170 odds to win AL MVP, BetMGM is telling us that there is a 37.04% chance that Aaron Judge is going to win the award. However, that doesn’t impact anyone else’s chance to win it. Yordan Alvarez is given a 26.67% chance by BetMGM followed by Bobby Witt Jr. (9.09%) and Mike Trout (7.14%).

Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

MVP races are almost always a fluid thing, but there’s never been a doubt that Judge would come into the year leading the pack. To this point, he’s had a relatively slow start at least batting average-wise, but is starting to tick up as of recently. Currently, Judge boasts a 179 OPS+ with most of it coming from elite level slugging.

Looking at the rest of the field in the AL, notable changes in odds have come from players like Cal Raleigh and Yordan Alvarez. Coming into the season, Cal Raleigh had the third-best odds at +700 to win MVP, but after his extremely poor start (86 wRC+), his odds have fallen off a cliff.

With poor peripherals to start the year, BetMGM has drastically inflated the former runner-up’s odds to a worrisome +3500 while plenty of others have leapfrogged him in the race.

On the contrary, fully healthy Yordan Alvarez is off to an impeccable start in the 2026 campaign and has a ridiculous slash line of .341/.446/.707 (208 wRC+). From opening at +2800 to currently sitting at +275, BetMGM believes the hype is real and why shouldn’t they?

The outlying data on Alvarez is bar-none elite, and although he doesn’t play exceptional defense, it’s not that crazy for a DH to win MVP nowadays anyway.

Other notable shifts have come from players like Mike Trout and Ben Rice, who have soared in the MVP odds as this new season rolls on. Trout, now +1300, had a stellar 4 game set in the Bronx last week against Ben Rice and the Yankees as he slugged 5 homeruns raising his season OPS to .983.

Even more insane than Mike Trout’s early season renaissance, Ben Rice leads all of Major League Baseball with a 212 wRC+ and has more than held his own against left handed pitching. Some would consider him a platoon bat, but Rice slashing .367/.441/.867 good for a 1.308 OPS vs LHP, is flat out dominating and the odds have reflected this. From +15000 down to +2200, Rice has leaped a large portion of the field quickly and deservedly so.

2026 National League MVP Odds

Compared to the AL award race, the NL shapes up to be much more tame. All year long, Shohei Ohtani will be the favorite, and if he stays healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t bring home his fifth MVP Award.

Ohtani’s return to the mound has done nothing but pad his case. Even if he returned to pitching and didn’t perform well, the amount of value he can provide on offense will lead him to the top of the pack.

Ohtani, 32, put up 7.5 fWAR last year, while hitting 55 home runs, driving in 102, and scoring a whopping 146 runs of his own. His 172 wRC+ was second-best in all of baseball behind Judge, while his fWAR trailed only Judge, Raleigh, and Bobby Witt Jr., so need I say more?

Ohtani’s start to 2026 has been more of a continuation of his career norms, and he’s back to pitching full-time. Through five starts this year, Ohtani has allowed just two earned runs across 30 IP and seems to be just dialed in on the bump.

For Ohtani to win MVP, he doesn’t even need to be the best pitcher or hitter in the National League (although he could easily contend for both cases), the simple fact that he does both at such a high level will always push him over the edge.

However, with most of the NL race remaining status quo, the one big early-season surprise has to be Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Shaping up to be a fourth-year breakout season, the batted ball data Jordan Walker is producing is not only backing up his 166 wRC+, but saying that it is definitely sustainable.

Although players like Walker are making some noise early on, Ohtani, as per BetMGM is still the favorite to win the NL MVP award in 2026 by a landslide. Simply put, if Ohtani stays healthy, there’s not much anybody else can do to best him.

The fact that he pitches and hits at such a high level while nobody else in the league can makes Ohtani the chalk pick for MVP without much questioning.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value in betting on Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge to win the MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against them either.

Looking at the field in the NL and AL, there are a lot of fun longshots that have great odds with high payouts in the MVP race. It’s unfortunate that barring injury to either player, these races will likely end up in the chalk picks that Vegas believes they will be.