Odds to Win MLB’s 2026 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (July 26)

When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites, especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the trophy over the past few years.

Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP in each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP back in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.

In 2023, it was back to Ohtani winning the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by being the first player ever to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.

After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers prior to last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.

Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., it was Judge and Ohtani who again came home with the MVP hardware in 2024. They would keep things going again last year in 2025, with both Judge and Ohtani winning back-to-back MVP awards in their respective leagues.

Once again, Judge and Ohtani entered the 2026 season as the heavy-favorites to win, as Vegas essentially expects a healthy season from either to result in another MVP. But the favorites don’t always win, that’s why they still play 162 games to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new darkhorse will emerge.

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling MVP race. Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and once again find themselves being named the Most Valuable players in the game?

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2026

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.

2026 American League MVP Odds

When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “what is implied probability?”.

In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that is supposed to represent the likelihood of a given outcome. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.

With -160 odds to win AL MVP, BetMGM is telling us that there is a 61.54% chance that Yordan Alvarez is going to win the award. However, that doesn’t impact anyone else’s chance to win it. Junior Caminero is given a 18.18% chance by BetMGM followed by Bobby Witt Jr. at 16.67%.

Each players implied probability is exclusive to themselves, and their own odds to win the award, it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.

MVP races are almost always a fluid thing, but there’s never been a doubt that Judge would come into the year leading the pack. Devastatingly, on June 5th the Yankees placed Aaron Judge on the 10-Day IL with a stress fracture in his right ribcage which has almost entirely knocked him out of the MVP race in 2026.

It is unlikely the former 3-time MVP returns before August, which is a significant enough amount of time that his year-long counting stats won’t get to where they need to be in order to take home the award.

Judge noted after being placed on the IL that he had been playing through his injury for about a month, sustaining the blow during a game on April 26th while making a dive in right field. Even afterwards, Judge still boasted a stellar 151 OPS+ before finally succumbing to the injured list.

Looking at the rest of the field in the AL, notable changes in odds have come from players like Cal Raleigh, Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero. Coming into the season, Cal Raleigh had the third-best odds at +700 to win MVP, but after his extremely poor first half (63 OPS+), and injury, BetMGM has taken him off the board even while he’s back and currently healthy.

On the contrary, Yordan Alvarez had an impeccable first half in the 2026 campaign and with a ridiculous slash line of .325/.431/.646 (199 OPS+). From opening at +2800 to currently sitting as the favorite at -160, BetMGM believes the hype is real and why shouldn’t they?

The outlying data on Alvarez is bar-none elite, and although he doesn’t play exceptional defense, it’s not that crazy for a DH to win MVP nowadays anyway.

Heading down south, the Tampa Bay Rays have surprised many around the league this year and much of the credit can go towards breakout sensation Junior Caminero.

Although he plays poor defense at 3B and isn’t a great baserunner, Caminero boasts a .915 OPS and 29 homeruns, good for 3.5 fWAR. The expected batting metrics love Caminero too, with an xwOBA sitting at .373 good for 92nd percentile.

Shifting towards the 2024 AL MVP runner-up, Witt has an incredible savant page to back up his play, ranking in the 96th percentile in xwOBA (0.386) and 100th percentile in OAA (18) and Sprint Speed (30.3).

Unfortunately, on July 22nd the Royals placed Witt Jr. on the IL for the first time in his career with low back tightness. So far BetMGM hasn’t drastically taken him out of contention for the MVP award in the AL, but if he continues to miss an extended period of time he might not accrue enough counting stats for the voters to push him over the edge.

On the periphery, Yankees star 1B Ben Rice has had a bounce back July after a struggling month of June. With an abysmal .657 OPS in June, Rice had seen his season OPS mark dip well below 1.000. As this month now comes to a close, Rice is hovering at a 1.004 OPS for July and it has brought his season numbers back to an exceptional place (.937 OPS, 30 HR).

2026 National League MVP Odds

Compared to the AL award race, the NL shapes up to be much more tame. All year long, Shohei Ohtani will be the favorite.

Ohtani, 32, put up 7.5 fWAR last year, while hitting 55 home runs, driving in 102, and scoring a whopping 146 runs of his own. His 172 wRC+ was second-best in all of baseball behind Judge, while his fWAR trailed only Judge, Raleigh, and Bobby Witt Jr., so need I say more?

Ohtani’s first half in 2026 has been interesting to say the least. Through 14 starts on the year, Ohtani has allowed 17 earned runs across 85.2 IP and seems to be just dialed in on the bump. That’s good for a 1.79 ERA!

However, due to a lingering knee issue, Ohtani has been sidelined from the bump since the All-Star break and currently doesn’t have a clear timeline when he will return to the mound. His odds have dropped greatly since this issue has flared up, but he still holds a sizeable lead over the rest of the field.

For Ohtani to win MVP, he doesn’t even need to be the best pitcher or hitter in the National League (although he could easily contend for both cases when right), the simple fact that he does both at such a high level will always push him over the edge.

The closest competition Ohtani has to the NL MVP award has to be from Pete Crow-Armstrong out in Chicago.

Shaping up to be a 3rd year full breakout season, the batted ball data PCA is producing is not only backing up his 159 OPS+, but saying that it is definitely sustainable.

To supplement PCA’s bat, he plays a bar-none elite centerfield with 20 OAA good for 100th percentile. With his great speed, he really has become a complete player and leads the entire league in fWAR with 7.0!

Although players like PCA are making some noise, Ohtani, as per BetMGM is still the favorite to win the NL MVP award in 2026 by a landslide. Simply put, if Ohtani stays healthy, at least on the hitting side of the ball, there’s not much anybody else can do to best him.

The fact that he pitches and hits at such a high level while nobody else in the league can makes Ohtani the chalk pick for MVP without much questioning.

How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there is very little value in betting on Shohei Ohtani to win the MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.

In the AL, with Judge going down due to injury the race has never been more up in the air. Now is a great time to lock in who you think can run away with the award before their individual odds worsen throughout the stretch run towards the end of the year. Will it be Yordan Alvarez or Bobby Witt Jr? What about rising stars like Ben Rice or Nick Kurtz? Only time will tell.