Revisiting the Offseason Trades: Hits and Misses

One of the offseason’s greatest activities is discussing hypothetical trades. Why player X makes sense for your favorite team and why a horrible package you have formed would surely make the deal go through. The idea of living in a fantasy land delays reality long enough to allow you to dream.

Well, for some teams, offseason trades can bring nightmares.

When judging trades, it can be difficult to claim a winner or a loser, especially after one season. Some teams actively want to get worse, at least in the short term. Others value prospects three to five years away much less, as the 2026 season is all that really matters.

For today’s exercise, we are going to decide if each of the following trades was a “hit” or a “miss” based on the perspective of the buying team. It’s not quite fair to judge the prospect return when those players are potentially years away, so we will use the major leaguer’s season to determine the outcome. Of course, many trades were made over the winter, but today we will only highlight some of the more impactful moves.

Stats updated prior to games on September 3.

Rangers Add MacKenzie Gore

• Rangers: MacKenzie Gore
• Nationals: Gavin Fien, Abimelec Ortiz, Devin Fitz-Gerald, Alejandro Rosario, Yeremy Cabrera

Let’s kick it off with one of the more difficult moves to judge. Texas needed to bolster their rotation and shipped a fleet of prospects out west in return for Gore, who is under team control through the 2027 season.

For Washington, the deal made a lot of sense. Adding this many prospects to a system that needed a boost was a smart strategy that is quickly paying off, as Fitz-Gerland has already entered top-100 lists.

In exchange, Texas has received 29 starts at a 4.31 ERA and 3.72 FIP from Gore. He’s currently on track to match or surpass his career high in innings and has provided Texas with about what you would expect. The mid-4.00s ERA is not what you would want, but FIP tells a better story. If the Rangers were hoping for a big jump, they didn’t get it, as he’s been exactly what you should have expected.

I’m sure you will have some arguing this was a hit and others saying it was a miss, but I’m going to lean toward a hit. Gore has been much better in the second half, and I won’t hold his ERA fully against him. He didn’t need to be the team’s ace, and he’s settled into his role just as expected.

Red Sox and Brewers Swap Major Leaguers

• Red Sox: Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Comp B Pick
• Brewers: Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, Shane Drohan

Every player in this trade has provided value to their team, making it a difficult one to call. The Red Sox improved their overall depth, which has become even more important with the number of injuries they have sustained. Each of these three players has a wRC+ within five points of 100 and has played an important role, at times, in the Red Sox season.

However, the Brewers added two arms that have helped give them one of the best rotations in baseball. Harrison has pitched to a 3.45 ERA and 3.90 FIP across 22 starts (stats that looked much better before a blow-up in his last outing), while Drohan has given the Brewers a 3.75 ERA and 3.42 FIP across 16 starts and 27 appearances.

Boston doesn’t necessarily need another lefty in their rotation, so saying these two arms were expendable is fair. But I would rather have the Brewers return, which gives them the hit. I wouldn’t go as far as saying the Red Sox earned a miss, however.

Mets Whiff on Freddy Peralta

• Mets: Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers
• Brewers: Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat

New York’s season, like many before it, has been forgettable. When they added Peralta, it looked like the type of move that would solidify their rotation, but it was quite the opposite. Peralta made 22 starts for the Mets, pitching to a 4.99 ERA, the worst of his career.

He was shipped out at the trade deadline, and his struggles have continued in Tampa. A fall from grace that no one was expecting. The Brewers’ return hasn’t looked great, but both of those players are more long-term plays. I’m sure if the Mets were able to do the offseason over, they would have skipped on Peralta.

To me, this is one of, if not the biggest miss of the offseason. Peralta was known for his consistent excellence, and once he got to New York, that consistency disappeared. The Mets have had several whiffs in the past few seasons, and the Peralta trade will be near the top.

Boston Adds Slugger Willson Contreras

• Red Sox: Willson Contreras
• Cardinals: Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, Blake Aita

I have always viewed Willson Contreras as one of the most underappreciated players in the league. He’s been consistently great throughout his career, and the move to Boston has propelled him to the best season of his career at 34 years old. A .274/.384/.516 slash with a career-high 26 home runs and 150 wRC+ has placed him in MVP discussions.

Boston needed another righty bat to join the lineup and fill first base, and they could not have found a better fit. They did not have to part with any prospects that really impacted their system, making the deal that much sweeter. Without a doubt, a surefire hit for Boston.

Boston Capitalizes on Another Veteran

• Red Sox: Sonny Gray
• Cardinals: Brandon Clarke, Richard Fitts, Patrick Galle

Despite having a number of intriguing young arms, the Red Sox went out and added veterans Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray. Two moves that have been key to their success.

What a fun watch Gray has been. A crafty pitcher who controls the zone and avoids disaster game after game. Although his strikeout numbers are down, he still limits walks with the best of them.

Gray’s contract was what scared some teams away, but the Red Sox were able to get the money where they needed it to be, and the returns have been well worth it. A 2.82 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 25 starts is better than you could have asked for. He’s not going to reach the 180-inning mark, but I don’t think it really matters.

Another clear hit for Boston.

Rangers and Mets Swap Veterans

• Rangers: Brandon Nimmo
• Mets: Marcus Semien

Since we are already piling on the Mets, we might as well bring up this deal next.

I understand the move is more complex due to their contracts, but it’s hard to ignore just how bad Marcus Semien has been in New York. Through 120 games, Semien is slashing .218/.283/.348, good for a 77 wRC+. A neutral fWAR player making a boatload of money cannot be spun into a good situation.

On the other side, Brandon Nimmo is doing exactly what he has done for so long. Sure, he’s likely to miss out on the 20-home-run mark, but a .270/.335/.429 slash and 116 wRC+ is a good piece to have in the Rangers’ lineup. I think Nimmo is going to age well and at least provide average value throughout the remainder of his contract, even if the price doesn’t match the player.

An obvious whiff for the Mets and a hit for the Rangers, who not only added a solid player but also peeled a bad player away from their team. The Mets outfield situation is not in dire need of Nimmo, especially going forward, but are you telling me they couldn’t find a better deal than this? I find that hard to believe.

Baltimore Swings Big on High Upside Arm

• Orioles: Shane Baz
• Rays: Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, Austin Overn, Comp A Pick

The biggest need for Baltimore this past offseason was rotation help, and they addressed it by swinging a package for Shane Baz. Baz had dealt with injury throughout his career and reached the point where the hype felt like it was beginning to not be justified.

However, across 27 starts, Baz has posted a 4.01 ERA and 3.36 FIP while being on track to surpass his career high in innings. The price was not cheap, and this could come back to bite the O’s in the long run, but I think what Baz has provided has been enough to say this was a hit.

The move will need more time for Baz to prove his consistency, but I think what we have seen in year one, even if it’s not as dominant as the O’s hoped for, is enough for this trade to avoid being a miss.

Cubs Miss on Rotation Help (For Now)

• Cubs: Edward Cabrera
• Marlins: Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernandez, Edgardo De Leon

Edward Cabrera was brought to Chicago to help elevate a rotation that lacked star power. After years of flashes without consistency, Cabrera broke out in 2025, putting together the most complete season he has had in his career by taking major strikes with his command.

In 2026, the command has stayed true, but his stuff has taken a step back, and he has not shown the same swing-and-miss ability in Chicago.

Now, Cabrera has only made one start since June due to injury, so an incomplete evaluation might be fair. However, I’m going to go ahead and give this move a miss. A 5.68 ERA and 5.20 FIP with only a 7.93 K/9 is not nearly good enough. Anytime he looked like he was settling in, a blow-up start would derail his momentum.

I do think Cabrera can rebound and provide value for the Cubs throughout the remainder of his team control, but I lean towards 2025 being closer to the exception than the standard.

Angels and O’s Make a Unique, but Fun, Move

• Angels: Grayson Rodriguez
• Orioles: Taylor Ward

When this trade was announced, I remember the baseball world scratching their heads. Not because it was a bad move, but it was just strange. The Angels needed more upside in their rotation and added that with Rodriguez, while the O’s gave away something they too needed for a one-year bat. A bat they ended up trading at the deadline.

It looks like the Orioles knew more than the common baseball fan. Rodriguez, who has dealt with injuries throughout his young career, has only made 16 starts this season, pitching to a 6.03 ERA and 4.76 FIP. His strikeout numbers are down, and in my opinion, nothing has looked special in his starts.

I would say this was a miss for the Angels. I liked the move at the time, but it has not given me any reason to be excited. The Orioles didn’t exactly get a slam dunk, either. Ward’s power disappeared, as it almost became a game to see how many walks he could draw. Which is fine, but not exactly the player they were hoping would change their lineup.

Three-Team Deal Leaves Astros Wanting More

• Rays: Jacob Melton, Anderson Brito
• Astros: Mike Burrows
• Pirates: Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, Mason Montgomery

Oof. This is one of those deals that did not feel as big at the time but has played out in a way that leaves a clear loser. The Astros. Houston needed rotation help and took a swing on Burrows, who posted a 5.99 ERA and 5.63 FIP before getting demoted to Triple-A. During a time when the rotation still needed help.

I especially love the return for the Pirates. Not only was it the type of (relatively) aggressive move the Pirates needed to make, but each player has made an impact. Lowe has done exactly what he always does (hit home runs and strike out), Mangum has filled in nicely amid injuries to the outfield, and Montgomery has been an excellent lefty out of the bullpen and is now getting opportunities to close.

Tampa added a nice prospect and doesn’t seem to miss what they let go. A hit for two of the organizations and a significant miss for the Astros.

Rockies Make Two Savvy Moves

• Rockies: Jake McCarthy
• Diamondbacks: Josh Grosz

• Rockies: TJ Rumfield
• Yankees: Angel Chivilli

We don’t usually sing the praises of the Colorado Rockies, so I’ll take this rare opportunity to do just that. Colorado is working under a new front office, and the early returns look promising. Adding Rumfield and McCarthy in exchange for two arms has paid off. Has it changed the trajectory of the Rockies season? No. But I would consider both players impact bats for Colorado.

Rumfield has been an answer at first base, which the Rockies have desperately needed, slashing .291/.384/.442 with 14 home runs and a 120 wRC+. A great eye for the one and a more contact-oriented approach make him a unique fit for the position, but the Rockies need production wherever they can find it.

McCarthy has returned to looking like the best version of himself, putting the ball in play and also taking advantage of his home field, launching 14 home runs, a new career high. Both players have accumulated 2.0 or more fWAR and should help the Rockies climb out of the basement in the near future. At least one would hope.

More Deals

Rays in Another Three-Team Trade

• Rays: Ben Williamson
• Mariners: Brendan Donovan
• Cardinals: Jurrangelo Cijntje, Tai Peete, 2 comp picks

At the time, Donovan being added to Seattle’s lineup looked like a perfect fit. The issue is he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, which is a shame considering how good he can be. I won’t call this a miss for Seattle, although Williamson has been a miss for Tampa.

The Steal of the Season?

• Rays: Cash
• White Sox: Tristan Peters

In terms of value given up and value coming back, you could argue this was the best move of the offseason. The White Sox added a player no one thought much of in Peters, and he’s been an integral piece to Chicago’s success. A great defender who has slashed .279/.345/.468, giving the White Sox some balance to their power-heavy lineup.

A Change of Scenery for Luis Robert

• Mets: Luis Robert Jr.
• White Sox: Luisangel Acuña and Truman Pauley

I think we can say everyone is disappointed in this move. Luis Robert Jr. has been a perfectly fine player for the Mets, but, like always, he cannot stay on the field. A minimal impact for a team that collected minimal impacts all offseason. He is now on the Orioles. Acuña, notably not a switch-hitter, looks like a minor leaguer or fringe roster utility piece. Everyone misses.