Stock Watch: Biggest Risers and Fallers in MLB Through Mid-June

As the mid-June calendar turns, this week’s Stock Watch highlights a platoon journeyman anchor, a pair of highly-touted young arms fulfilling front-of-the-rotation potential, and premium infield cornerstone pieces whose underlying metrics suggest prolonged slumps.

Let’s dive into this week’s list of players.

Stats are from game results prior to play on June 18.

Stock Up

Jake Bauers – 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers 

The first-place Milwaukee Brewers continue to maximize their roster by extracting high-level production from unexpected depth pieces.

While our last Stock Watch highlighted Kyle Harrison stabilizing the rotation behind NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski, this edition belongs to 30-year-old journeyman Jake Bauers. The left-handed hitting utility man is putting together a career year.

Prior to 2026, Bauers’ career-high bWAR sat at 0.7. Through 61 games this season, he has already accumulated a 1.6 bWAR while leading Milwaukee with 13 home runs and 46 RBIs. His .274/.374/.514 slash line and .888 OPS represent career-best figures across the board.

Capitalizing on playing time made available by Andrew Vaughn’s April injury, Bauers has held his own across first base, both corner outfield spots, and designated hitter.

Jake Bauers 2026 Splits:

• Vs. RHP: .277 AVG, .923 OPS, 11 HR (159 AB)
• Vs. LHP: .264 AVG, .784 OPS, 2 HR (53 AB)
• Night Games: .290 AVG, .942 OPS, 10 HR (145 AB)
• Runners in Scoring Position: .349 AVG, 1.222 OPS, 7 HR

Bauers has been particularly lethal in June, posting an OPS over 1.000 via a .622 slugging percentage and a 14-to-14 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His performance with runners in scoring position and two outs (.333 AVG, 5 HR, 1.267 OPS) has insulated the middle of the Brewers’ order.

While skeptical observers might point to his history, including a .199 average and a -0.4 bWAR with Milwaukee in 2024, along with a negative WAR in five of his nine big-league seasons, his underlying metrics suggest this transformation is sustainable.

Bauers is hitting the ball with an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph (up from 89.4 mph in 2024), while sporting a 13.8% barrel rate, a 55.2% hard-hit rate, and a bat speed tracking in the 97th percentile.

By pairing an 87th percentile or higher tier across those contact categories with a reduced strikeout rate (23.6%) and a strong 12.6% walk rate, Bauers’ .362 xwOBA and .476 xSLG prove that his success is earned.

Bryce Miller – SP, Seattle Mariners 

The Seattle Mariners hold a narrow lead atop the AL West, and right-hander Bryce Miller is a driving force behind that positioning.

Now in his fourth big-league season, the 27-year-old has bounced back in a major way after an injury-riddled 2025 campaign (5.68 ERA in 18 starts). Delayed by an early injury that kept him out until May 13, Miller has been dominant since stepping back onto the mound.

Outside of an eight-hit season debut against the Astros, Miller has allowed no more than five hits in a start since. His strikeout rate has surged while capping his walks at two or fewer across his six outings.

In June, he has truly hit his stride, throwing six shutout innings against the Tigers with nine strikeouts, followed by an eight-inning, two-run gem against the Nationals.

Bryce Miller 2026 Metrics:

• Season Stats: 35.0 IP, 1.54 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 36 K, 5 BB
• June ERA: 1.29
• RISP: 1-for-15 (.067 AVG), 5 K
• Home ERA: 0.00 (2 Starts)

Miller’s newly-integrated splitter has become a premier offspeed pitch, thrown 20% of the time overall and 26% to left-handed hitters. His four-seam fastball is sitting at a career-high 96.5 mph, up from last year’s 94.7 mph average.

He sits in the 98th percentile in xERA (2.34), 91st percentile in xBA (.196), 99th percentile in walk rate (4%), and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (27.4%). Aside from a minor vulnerability the third time through the order (.866 opponent OPS), Miller’s underlying profile suggests elite output will continue.

Max Meyer – SP, Miami Marlins 

Max Meyer is providing the exact frontline upside the Miami Marlins envisioned when selecting him third overall in 2020. The 27-year-old has already made a career-high 15 starts through mid-June, pitching his way to a 7-0 record, 2.75 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts across 85.0 innings.

Meyer’s breakout is built on his transformed swing-and-miss ability. He ranks in the 84th percentile with a 30.1% whiff rate and the 81st percentile with a 26.9% strikeout rate — massive developments from his 2024 season, where both marks sat below the 38th percentile.

While his ground-ball rate has dropped to league average, his stability is supported by the rapid evolution of his sweeper.

The pitch was nonexistent in his 2024 repertoire and utilized just 11% of the time in 2025. This season, it has become his most-used offering (thrown 29% to both lefties and righties) and grades out in the 99th percentile in effectiveness among all MLB breaking balls.

His June run includes a 1.96 ERA over three starts, underscored by a nine-strikeout, one-run performance over six frames against the Pirates. Backed by a 1.97 home ERA and an ability to hold opponents to a .579 OPS the third time through the order, Meyer has firmly raised his floor to profile as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation asset despite an xERA (3.79) that hints at regression ahead.

Stock Down

Dansby Swanson – SS, Chicago Cubs 

While Dansby Swanson continues to provide elite utility with his glove and on the basepaths, ranking in the 96th percentile in both fielding and baserunning run value, his offensive production has collapsed. Through 71 games, the 32-year-old shortstop is hitting a meager .175 with a .587 OPS, leaving him in the fifth percentile for batting run value.

Swanson has historically been a reliable asset in Chicago, averaging an OPS between .701 and .744 with 4.0 to 4.8 bWAR over his first three seasons. This season, despite a strong 25% chase rate (77th percentile) and a stellar 12.7% walk rate (83rd percentile), he cannot generate high-quality contact.

Dansby Swanson’s Statcast Declines (2025 vs. 2026):

• xBA: .244 → .187 (2nd Percentile)
• xwOBA: 75th Percentile → .281 (11th Percentile)
• xSLG: 74th Percentile → .325 (11th Percentile)
• Sweet-Spot%: 78th Percentile → 26.3% (4th Percentile)

Swanson is swinging and missing entirely too often, logging a 31.2% whiff rate (15th percentile) and a 24.6% strikeout rate. While he continues to handle fastballs adequately (.256 AVG, .446 SLG), breaking pitches (.103 AVG) and offspeed deliveries (.034 AVG) have neutralized him.

A miserable June (.150 AVG, sub-.400 OPS) has forced the veteran shortstop to spend most of his time hitting out of the nine hole in the Cubs’ batting order.

Austin Riley – 3B, Atlanta Braves 

The Atlanta Braves hold a commanding seven-game lead in the division, but they are doing so without their star third baseman clicking at the plate. Austin Riley is slashing just .204 with a .637 OPS, well below his career .265 average and .812 OPS baselines.

From 2021 to 2023, Riley was one of the most reliable power configurations in the National League, averaging 33-plus home runs and a bWAR between 5.9 and 6.5. After missing time due to injuries in 2024 and 2025, a healthy 2026 campaign has paradoxically yielded his lowest career returns, featuring just eight home runs, 84 strikeouts, and a career-worst .350 slugging percentage.

Riley’s raw power baselines remain intact, highlighted by an 89th-percentile bat speed, but his ability to barrel up optimal launch angles has deteriorated.

His average exit velocity (78th percentile), barrel rate (64th percentile), and hard-hit rate (62nd percentile) remain above league average, but his 20th percentile launch angle sweet-spot mark has suppressed his overall numbers.

When paired with an 11th-percentile whiff rate and a 14th-percentile strikeout rate, Riley’s inability to drive the ball in the air has caused a major freeze, resulting in a June average of .167 with zero home runs.

Trevor Rogers – SP, Baltimore Orioles

Left-hander Trevor Rogers continues to ride a turbulent wave in 2026. The 28-year-old Baltimore Orioles starter sits at 3-7 with a 5.86 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts through 66.0 innings across 13 starts.

Rogers has been highly inconsistent since arriving in Baltimore via a 2024 trade deadline deal. After a stellar bounce-back season in 2025 (1.81 ERA, 5.5 bWAR), Rogers began 2026 in peak form, logging a 1.89 ERA and working at least six frames in each of his first three starts.

However, over his last 10 outings, he has finished six full innings just twice.

While his June surface performance looks respectable on paper (3.12 ERA across three starts), his underlying stability remains highly concerning, having allowed 16 hits and four walks over 17.1 innings during that span.

Trevor Rogers 2026 Situational Splits:

• Road Games: 6.64 ERA
• Night Games: 8.79 ERA
• Vs. Right-Handed Hitters: .299 AVG, .834 OPS
• Runners in Scoring Position: .348 AVG, 1.014 OPS

Rogers has also exhibited durability drops based on lineup turnover. While holding opponents to a .223 average and .605 OPS the first time through the order, those numbers jump to a .316 average second time through, and balloon to a .327 average and 1.049 OPS the third time he faces a hitter.

Though his pitch sequencing remains identical to his dominant 2025 campaign and his raw velocity has held firm, the shape and utility of his individual pitches have deteriorated. His four-seam fastball value has plummeted from the 96th percentile down to the 25th percentile, while his changeup has fallen to the eighth percentile after tracking in the 94th percentile last year. 

While Rogers is inducing chase outside the zone, his raw whiff rate has dipped to 22%, driving his strikeout rate down from 24.3% to 16.6%. Without an elite putaway pitch and suffering from a plummeted ground-ball rate (46.4% down to 37.9%), Rogers remains a highly volatile investment on the mound.