Will the Braves Take Off Now That They Have Their MVP Back?
With the return of Ronald Acuña Jr from injury, the Atlanta Braves look to make up ground in the National League.
After 362 long days, the 2023 National League MVP returned to the field for the Atlanta Braves. In typical Ronald Acuña Jr. fashion, he sent the first pitch he saw from Nick Pivetta 467 feet into the stands at Truist Park.
After suffering the second ACL tear of his career, there were plenty of questions regarding just how well Acuña would perform, especially in his first set of games upon his return. Well, he answered those critics by going 4-for-12 with two homers and three RBIs in his first series back against the San Diego Padres.
Now with the Braves’ lineup back to full strength, they turn their focus to digging themselves out of the hole they have put themselves in.
Stats taken prior to play on May 30.
Atlanta’s Offensive Production
The offense has been the biggest issue for Atlanta so far this season, with many of their key hitters struggling to open the year.
Michael Harris II currently sports a .597 OPS and 60 wRC+, Ozzie Albies has a .668 OPS and 87 wRC+, and both Matt Olson and Austin Riley have just recently started getting their offense rolling.
With the return of Acuña, the lineup immediately gets dangerous from the very first at-bat of the game. While we may not see him steal 70 bags this year — or ever again for that matter — the bat speaks for itself.
Opposing pitchers will be more inclined to give hitters at the bottom of the order, such as Nick Allen, Albies, and Harris, more hittable pitches, as they will not want to face Acuña with runners on base.
Rather than rely on both Alex Verdugo and Eli White for offensive production, Atlanta now can deploy just one in the daily lineup. Moreover, Allen’s limited offense will no longer be as big of an issue.
| May Stats | ERA (rank) | WHIP (rank) | FIP (rank) | xFIP (rank) | SIERA (rank) |
| Rotation | 3.04 (4) | 1.12 (4) | 3.67 (8) | 3.47 (6) | 3.56 (7) |
| Bullpen | 3.28 (7) | 1.34 (15) | 3.90 (17) | 3.94 (10) | 3.69 (14) |
| May Stats | OPS (rank) | wRC+ (rank) | wBOA (rank) | HardHit% (rank) | EV (rank) |
| Offense | .707 (18) | 96 (19) | .313 (16) | 43.1% (10) | 90.2 (10) |
The pitching staff has been very solid overall. The home run ball has been a thorn in their side, but I believe in the pitching factory that Atlanta deploys on a yearly basis.
With the offense being average at best, the hope lies on the bat of Acuña. Out of his 13 batted balls so far through his first two series, Acuña has recorded an 85% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 102.4 mph.
His spark to the lineup has been felt immediately, and it may just be what the rest of the offense needs to get back on track and hit like they historically have.
Time To Make a Comeback in the NL East
The first step on the road to a World Series title is winning your own division. For the Braves, this has become an expectation. However, after winning the NL East six straight years from 2018-’23, Atlanta failed to win the division a season ago, as they fell six games shy of the division-winning Philadelphia Phillies.
Heading into 2025, the Braves looked to reclaim their dominance over the NL East. This task would not be easy, though, as the Phillies were looking to defend their division title, and the New York Mets added superstar Juan Soto to get them over the hump.
To make things harder for Atlanta, both Spencer Strider and Acuña started the season on the IL as they were returning from significant injuries.
On May 23, the Braves finally got both of their stars healthy and back on the roster. The time to mount a comeback has officially begun. The only issue? The Braves sit 9.5 games back of the Phillies in the standings. Is it even possible for Atlanta to make a surge up the standings and win the NL East?
The answer is quite simple: yes.
It wasn’t that long ago where Braves fans didn’t see their team reach .500 until August, yet they won both the division and the World Series that year.
The task this year seems more daunting, as winning 88 games certainly will not secure them the NL East crown like it did in 2021. However, it’s not insurmountable.
To come back and win the division, it will take a total team effort. The rotation will need to keep the team in ballgames, the bullpen must be able to keep a lead, and the offense will need to finally show up.
The Braves play both the Phillies and Mets 13 times each this season, with only having played six versus Philadelphia thus far to a 3-3 record. The path lies here. Take care of business against your division rivals and don’t drop series to teams you should handle, and the division should remain in reach.
It’s a tough ask, most would say its improbable given where the Braves sit heading into June. But for Atlanta, it is one they should embrace.
The NL Wild Card
I hate to talk about the wild card this early into the season, but considering the hole they have dug themselves into, it’s fair to say that their best chance of playing in October may come as a wild-card team.
As of May 30, Atlanta is 5.5 games back of a wild-card berth. The National League is a gauntlet this year with teams such as the Mets, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all starting out hot, despite fighting for a wild-card seed currently.
With three wild-card slots up for grabs, a six-game deficit shouldn’t scare the Braves. There’s still four months of baseball to play. Some teams will get hot, some will get cold, and it only takes one hot streak for Atlanta to get right back into the mix.
Outlook
I’ll admit, it’s been tough to stay optimistic through this rough start. The Braves find themselves 9.5 games back in the NL East and 5.5 games back for a wild-card spot. They have let too many winnable games slip away at times, and it feels like they’re right on the verge of a breakout that just hasn’t come.
But there is reason for hope.
With the expanded wild-card format, we’ve seen plenty of examples of teams storming back from deep deficits on May 30 to win their divisions:
- In 2022, the Cleveland Guardians were 6.5 games back in the AL Central and ended up winning the division by 11 games.
- That same year, the Braves themselves were 10.5 games behind in the NL East and still finished with 101 wins and another division title.
- In 2023, both the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros were at least three games back in their divisions, and both climbed back to win them.
- Just last season, the Astros were 6.5 games back in the AL West and stormed back again to take the crown.
And that’s just the division winners.
In this expanded postseason format, we have seen that you don’t need to win the division to make a deep run.
Just last year, the Mets found themselves nine games under .500 heading into June, but they bounced back to secure a wild-card spot with 89 wins and made it all the way to the NLCS.
In 2023, both the Diamondbacks and Rangers made it to the World Series as wild-card teams. The year before, the Phillies got to the Fall Classic as a wild-card team as well.
Every season is different. Just because it’s happened before doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen again. But it does show that it is possible. Braves fans should know that no matter how bleak it might feel right now, there is a path.
With Strider and Acuña finally being healthy, now is the time for the Braves to start a comeback. The margin for error is shrinking, and the longer the Braves wait to find their rhythm, the tougher the climb will get.
But with four months of baseball left in the regular season, there’s still plenty of time. One series at a time. Stack wins. Handle your business. And come August, the postseason could be within striking distance.
Written by
Taylor is a baseball enthusiast and a writer for Just Baseball. An Atlanta native, he shares his love for the Braves, card collecting, and scouting the…