Who Will Get a Qualifying Offer for the 2024-25 Offseason?

Earlier in October, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported that the qualifying offer for the upcoming MLB offseason will be set at $21.05 million. This is a $725K increase over last year’s, which sat at $20.325 million.

This is of particular importance, because we’re nearing the time where players will receive a QO and determine whether they’ll accept the terms or not.

For those who need a reminder on what exactly the QO is, it’s basically a way for teams to make sure they’re properly compensated for losing their top players in free agency. If they lose any of said players, they receive compensation in the form of an extra pick in the next season’s MLB Draft.

The QO is determined by finding the mean salary of the league’s top 125 highest-paid players. Pending free agents can only be extended a QO if they’ve either A.) never previously received one, or B.) spent the entire year on their team’s roster, so they can’t be players who were acquired at the trade deadline.

Teams must decide whether or not they’ll extend a QO to their free agents within five days of the World Series coming to a close. From there, the player will have one week to determine if they’re going to accept the single-year pact or take an unrestricted trip through free agency.

For a deeper dive into what the QO entails, check out the official glossary section on MLB’s website.

We know the figure, but we haven’t established which candidates are locks to get a QO. Let’s take a closer look at who’s guaranteed to get one, who is on the bubble and who isn’t going to get one.

Which Players Are Locks to Get a Qualifying Offer?

When attempting to identify which players will receive a qualifying offer, it’s important to note what their salary was this year and whether they’ll be worthy of a bump in pay to get up to that $21.05 million threshold.

It’s also important to mention that the vast majority of players who will receive a QO will likely reject it in favor of landing a high-dollar, multi-year contract elsewhere. If a team offers one to a player, they reject it and then sign somewhere else, they’re awarded a draft pick. It usually works out either way for the team. They either get that player back for another year or they get a free pick in next year’s draft.

Let’s check out which players are absolute locks to receive a QO.

Willy Adames

2024 stats: 161 G, 153 H, 93 R, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB, .251/.331/.462, .794 OPS

2024 contract: $12.25 million

Performing like one of the best offensive shortstops in the game will make you an obvious choice for a QO. Adames will 100% receive one from the small-market Brewers, but he will also 100% reject it. He’s in line for a ridiculous payday, deservedly so after putting together one of the best walk-year showings we’ve seen in a while.

Pete Alonso

2024 stats: 162 G, 146 H, 91 R, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 3 SB, .240/.329/.459, .788 OPS

2024 contract: $20.5 million

It’s going to be hard for the Mets to move on from Alonso, so they’ll definitely throw a QO his way. He likely won’t accept it, instead opting to find a long-term contract, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to find himself in another organization. His clutch performances in the 2024 playoffs have bought him another deal with the Metropolitans, it just won’t be a one-year pact from the QO.

Alex Bregman

2024 stats: 145 G, 151 H, 79 R, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 3 SB, .260/.315/.453, .768 OPS

2024 contract: $30.5 million

If Bregman accepted the QO, he’d be taking a significant pay cut, so there’s no shot he’ll agree to it. However, the Astros would be foolish not to still extend an offer his way, as they’d be sitting pretty with a shiny new draft pick if he leaves the organization. With the club’s dynasty winding down, it seems like Bregman’s time may be coming to a close, but there’s still a way the Astros can get one last bit of value out of him, and that’s that draft pick.

Corbin Burnes

2024 stats: 32 GS, 194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 8.4 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.6 H/9, 128 ERA+

2024 contract: $15.64 million

Arguably the best starting pitcher set to hit the open market, Burnes is a lock to get a QO from the Orioles. Like so many others here, that doesn’t mean he will accept it. The right-hander was every bit the pitcher the O’s wanted when they traded for him this past offseason, and that 2.92 ERA and full 32-start season is more than enough to earn him a long-term deal somewhere this winter.

Max Fried

2024 stats: 29 GS, 174.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 8.6 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9, 7.5 H/9, 128 ERA+

2024 contract: $15 million

Burnes is the best starter to become a free agent, but Fried is easily the best left-handed starter. Even though 2024 wasn’t his best season, the 30-year-old made his second All-Star appearance and threw the second most innings of his career. The Braves will undoubtedly try to secure him for that one additional season, but he’s heading straight to the open market to get that payday he’s always deserved.

Teoscar Hernandez

2024 stats: 154 G, 160 H, 84 R, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB, .272/.339/.501, .840 OPS

2024 contract: $23.5 million

Hernandez and budding super-agent Rafa Nieves took a gamble and signed a one-year value-building contract with the Dodgers last offseason. The slugger went on to have one of the best seasons of his career and is now primed for his first long-term contract. Hernandez is a true power hitter if there ever was one and he’s going to easily find a high-dollar, multi-year commitment, but the Dodgers will try to throw a qualifying offer his way first.

Sean Manaea

2024 stats: 32 GS, 181.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 9.1 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.6 H/9, 114 ERA+

2024 contract: $14.5 million

There’s no shot the Mets knew what they’d get out of Manaea when they first signed him last offseason. He turned into the team’s ace and was outstanding in both the regular season and his first three playoff starts. The postseason performance alone should be enough to pad that upcoming contract a bit, similarly to Alonso’s situation. Manaea’s the first player on the list that isn’t an absolute lock to reject a QO, but he’ll be one to watch, as a multi-year deal seems to be within reach.

Anthony Santander

2024 stats: 155 G, 140 H, 91 R, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 2 SB, .235/.308/.506, .814 OPS

2024 contract: $11.7 million

From Rule 5 selection to All-Star is one heck of a story, and Santander will be hitting the free agent market at the absolute perfect time. The switch-hitter recorded a career-high 44 home runs and 102 RBI this year and there’s no doubt Baltimore offers him a QO, but he’s certainly not going to take it.

Juan Soto

2024 stats: 157 G, 166 H, 128 R, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 7 SB, .288/.419/.569, .989 OPS

2024 contract: $31 million

There’s nothing to be said about Soto that hasn’t been stated again and again. The future Hall of Famer just wrapped up his best regular season as a big leaguer and then promptly caught fire in the playoffs. He’s going to receive a historic contract this offseason, but the Yankees will be sure to toss a QO his way before he hits the open market. He may well remain in New York, but they’re going to get that draft pick if he chooses to move on.

Who’s on the Qualifying Offer Bubble?

Ha-Seong Kim

2024 stats: 121 G, 94 H, 60 R, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 22 SB, .233/.330/.370, .700 OPS

2024 contract: $8 million

Kim’s contract with the Padres has a 2025 mutual option worth $8 million. It also comes with a $1 million buyout. When he’s on, he’s one of the best shortstops in the game on both sides of the ball, the only problem is that we haven’t seen him on top of his game since 2023. 2.6 bWAR in a “down” year isn’t bad at all, but the Padres would almost be making him the QO in hopes of him rejecting it and them netting a pick. Who knows which way this one goes.

Nick Martinez

2024 stats: 42 G (16 GS), 142.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 7.3 SO/9, 1.1 BB/9, 8.1 H/9, 142 ERA+

2024 contract: $14 million

Martinez’s versatility would be an immense help for virtually every single club in the league. He can start games, fill in as a middle- or long-reliever and even close games. The Reds got an outstanding year out of him this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for them to throw a qualifying offer his way. If they do, he’d likely take it and fill a swiss-army knife role once again.

Tyler O’Neill

2024 stats: 113 G, 99 H, 74 R, 31 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB, .241/.336/.511, .847 OPS

2024 contract: $5.85 million

O’Neill comes with his fair share of warts, but he showed what he’s capable of doing when healthy this year. He wound up with only 113 games under his belt, but he still managed to hit 31 home runs and post a 132 OPS+. Boston media seems to think he won’t be extended a qualifying offer, but there are arguments to be made for him deserving one. If the Red Sox pass, it’ll be because they’re cautious about his durability concerns.

Nick Pivetta

2024 stats: 27 G (26 GS), 145.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 10.6 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.9 H/9, 103 ERA+

2024 contract: $7.5 million

Pivetta is also not a lock to receive a QO, but he’s a versatile and dependable starter who strikes a lot of batters out. His tenure in Boston was not always perfect, but the only three full seasons he’s ever been an above-average big league pitcher have come over the last four years. The Red Sox need starting pitching, so it’s possible they offer him the one-year pact, but the value may be too high and they pass altogether.

Jurickson Profar

2024 stats: 158 G, 158 H, 94 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB, .280/.380/.459, .839 OPS

2024 contract: $1 million

Profar, now 31-years old, has gone from can’t-miss prospect to dud to All-Star in what’s turning into a long career. Just wrapping up his 11th season in the big leagues, he’s finally in line for a payday that he has more than earned. The switch-hitter set career-highs in essentially every single offensive category and could get a QO from the Padres because of it. His career-long inconsistencies could be what holds him back from receiving one, but he’s certainly a candidate.

Luis Severino

2024 stats: 31 GS, 182 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 8.0 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.2 H/9, 101 ERA+

2024 contract: $13 million

This nine-year veteran made a full season of 31 starts for the first time since all the way back in 2018. Like others that fit into this category, the fact that he hasn’t been consistently durable may make a team like the Mets uninterested in the $21 million-dollar risk. He pitched well for them this season, but it remains to be seen how eager they are to bring him back on another risky short-term pact.

Christian Walker

2024 stats: 130 G, 120 H, 72 R, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .251/.335/.468, .803 OPS

2024 contract: $10.9 million

The Dbacks should offer Walker the qualifying offer, as he’s been a popular figure in their every day lineup for years now and has showed little to no signs of slowing down. He’s a slick-fielding option over at first base who also hits between 25 and 35 home runs every year. It seems likely that Walker receives and turns down the qualifying offer due to the fact that he’s going to be the next-best option to teams that miss out on the Alonso sweepstakes.

Michael Wacha

2024 stats: 29 GS, 166.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 7.8 SO/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.3 H/9, 126 ERA+

2024 contract: $16 million

After putting together his third straight above-average season on the mound, Wacha is going to receive a QO from the Royals but he will surely turn it down. The right-hander is going to re-enter the market as one of the best available starting pitchers, which is something he and his representatives realize. That one-year deal will look like chump change compared to the multi-year pact he’ll receive in free agency.

Who’s Not Getting a Qualifying Offer?

Shane Bieber

2024 stats: 2 GS, 12 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.08 FIP, 15.0 SO/9, 0.8 BB/9, 7.5 H/9, N/A ERA+

2024 contract: $13.13 million

When he’s on his A-game and fully healthy, Bieber is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. However, he’s only made 30 or more starts two times in his seven-year career. The Guardians obviously love him, but his lack of durability makes him a question mark, and that $21 million QO is a big risk for a team like the Guardians. A back-loaded multi-year deal feels more likely than Cleveland retaining him on a QO.

Paul Goldschmidt

2024 stats: 154 G, 147 H, 70 R, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB, .245/.302/.414, .716 OPS

2024 contract: $26 million

Goldschmidt has already made it clear that he intends to continue his playing career past 2024, but he’s going to have to take a pay cut to do so. The Cardinals have been clearly ready to move on for the vast majority of this season and there’s no shot they consider the one-year QO for him.

Jeff Hoffman

2024 stats: 68 G, 10 SV, 66.1 IP, 2.17 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 12.1 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 H/9, 188 ERA+

2024 contract: $2.2 million

The Phillies may consider extending a QO to Hoffman in hopes of getting one last year out of him, but $21 million would set the single-season record for highest reliever salary ever. Hoffman has been dominant in Philadelphia, but that’s too money to tie up to a single arm coming out of the ‘pen. The only reason the Phillies would even consider this is if they were especially interested in that compensatory pick in the draft.

Clay Holmes

2024 stats: 67 G, 30 SV, 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 9.7 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.6 H/9, 131 ERA+

2024 contract: $6 million

Holmes has gotten a bad reputation thanks to a so-so second half and some spotty showings in the playoffs. He has not been a bad pitcher, he’s just been bad at, well, bad times. Similarly to Hoffman, the QO value is just too high for a pitcher like Holmes to be kept around, especially when the Yankees seemed comfortable with letting him walk in free agency to begin with.

J.D. Martinez

2024 stats: 120 G, 102 H, 46 R, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, .235/.320/.406, .725 OPS

2024 contract: $12 million

Surprisingly, Martinez has never received a qualifying offer before, so he’s still eligible for a list like this one. The 14-year veteran remains an above-average hitter, but the $21 million price tag attached to that QO is, frankly, too high to keep a player like Martinez around.

Gleyber Torres

2024 stats: 154 G, 151 H, 80 R, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, .257/.330/.378, .709 OPS

2024 contract: $14.2 million

Another player that’s been obviously out the door for a while now, Torres redeemed himself a bit with a strong showing in the ALCS against Cleveland, but the Yankees are ready to move on. He doesn’t have a defensive position locked down, his bat is wildly inconsistent and his overall production dipped significantly from last year to this one. He’s an infielder with 25-homer pop, but he didn’t show enough of it this season to earn that QO.