Players Who Shouldn’t Have Turned Down the Qualifying Offer

The qualifying offer first took effect during the 2012-13 offseason. Since then, 144 players have received the offer. All but 14 have turned it down. That includes 12 of 13 players to receive the QO this offseason.

Nick Martinez was the lone exception this year. He accepted the $21.05 million offer from the Cincinnati Reds. 

The veteran right-hander seems to enjoy betting on his own talents. Since his return from NPB in 2022, he has opted out of his contracts three years in a row. After accepting the qualifying offer, he’ll get a chance to test the free agent market for a fourth consecutive offseason next winter. 

Meanwhile, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Christian Walker, Luis Severino, and Nick Pivetta all declined their respective offers. 

However, they will remain “QO free agents” for the rest of the offseason.

The burden of the offer will hang over each of their heads until they put pen to paper on new contracts. The teams that sign them will each lose at least one draft pick next summer. Some will also sacrifice international bonus pool money. 

Even teams that re-sign their own QO free agents are penalized, in a way, since they won’t receive the compensation they otherwise would have earned if the player signed elsewhere. 

For that reason, it can be hard for QO free agents and their representatives to gauge the market for their services. This doesn’t usually matter for top-tier guys like Soto or Burnes, but it can be a serious problem for mid-tier free agents like Severino or Pivetta. The QO penalties will shrink their markets and reduce their earning potential. 

That’s one reason why a handful of free agents have ultimately come to regret turning down the QO. Sometimes, the only thing that keeps them from beating the qualifying offer is the qualifying offer itself. It’s a no-win situation.

So, will anyone from this year’s qualifying offer class regret their decision? 

History tells us it’s unlikely. Out of 118 free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer (prior to this offseason), 11 went on to sign for less guaranteed money. However, 10 of those 11 instances came between the 2013-14 offseason and the 2018-19 offseason. 

Since 2019, only one player has rejected a qualifying offer and gone on to sign for less money.

That tells us that players and their agents have gotten better at reading the market in recent years. They’ve learned from those who were burned by rejecting qualifying offers in the past. And perhaps the rest of us can learn something from those players too.

(It’s worth keeping in mind that QO penalties have changed over the years. That said, it’s not as if players and agents weren’t aware of the contemporaneous penalties when making their decisions.)

Qualifying Offer Regret

Michael Conforto, 2021

• Value of QO rejected: $18.4 million
• Value of contract signed: No contract

Conforto was a victim of the lockout that prevented players from signing for several months during the 2021-22 offseason. The outfielder suffered a shoulder strain in January that ultimately required surgery and scared off any potential suitors.

Dallas Keuchel, 2018

• Value of QO rejected: $17.9 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $13 million (prorated)

Technically speaking, Keuchel beat the qualifying offer. For accounting purposes, his contract was valued at one year and $20 million, but because he didn’t sign until June (when the Braves no longer had to forfeit a draft pick to sign him), his prorated salary was only $13 million.

Greg Holland, 2017

• Value of QO rejected: $17.4 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $14 million

Holland reportedly turned down at least one lucrative, multi-year offer from the Rockies before ultimately signing a one-year pact with the Cardinals on Opening Day. It seems he overplayed his hand after leading the NL in saves the year before.

Yet, all those teams that were hesitant to sign him probably made the right call. Outside of a strong (but short) 2020 season with the Royals, he had an ERA above 4.50 in four of his final five seasons and never again topped 60 innings or appearances.

Lance Lynn, 2017

• Value of QO rejected: $17.4 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $12 million

The 2017-18 offseason was slow, and Lynn was hardly the only free agent who signed for less than he was expecting. Still, it was surprising that such a consistent and durable arm couldn’t find a better deal.

On the bright side, Lynn has earned upwards of $90 million since 2018, so he probably isn’t losing any sleep over the few million he passed up.

Mike Moustakas, 2017

• Value of QO rejected: $17.4 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $6.5 million (plus incentives)

Moustakas earned an additional $2.2 million in incentives, but that means he still lost out on just over $9 million by rejecting the qualifying offer. In terms of total dollars lost, that makes this the costliest QO rejection on the list (aside from Conforto).

Ian Desmond, 2015

• Value of QO rejected: $15.8 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $8 million

Keep in mind, we’re talking about the first time Desmond received a qualifying offer. These days, a player can only receive one QO in his career, but that wasn’t always the case.

Desmond had a down year in 2015, but he must have thought teams would look past it when he declined the QO. That turned out to be a mistake. However, he rebounded in 2016 on a one-year deal with the Rangers, and despite getting the QO for a second year in a row, he went on to sign a five-year, $70 million contract with the Rockies.

Dexter Fowler, 2015

• Value of QO rejected: $15.8 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $13 million

As with Desmond, we’re talking about Fowler’s first qualifying offer. Unlike Desmond, Fowler was actually quite good in 2015, but his market still failed to materialize. He re-signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $13 million guarantee.

Thankfully for Fowler, he was even better in 2016. The Cubs gave him a QO for a second year in a row, but he was able to sign a healthy five-year, $82.5 million pact with the Cardinals.

Hisashi Iwakuma, 2015

• Value of QO rejected: $15.8 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $12 million (plus vesting options and incentives)

Iwakuma initially agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract with the Dodgers before issues that arose during his physical nixed the deal. He ended up signing a one-year, $12 million guarantee to return to the Mariners.

Numerous incentives and a vesting option meant that Iwakuma ended up earning $29.5 million over two seasons in Seattle. Still, he almost certainly could have done better for himself had he taken the qualifying offer for 2016 and re-entered the free agent market the following winter.

Nelson Cruz, 2013

• Value of QO rejected: $14.1 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $8 million

Cruz is another player who has rejected multiple qualifying offers. He’s also another player who earned enough over his career that he probably isn’t sweating the $6.1 million he passed up on after the 2013 season.

The slugging outfielder put up phenomenal power numbers over the first two-thirds of the 2013 campaign before a PED suspension effectively ended his season. It’s easy to see why he rejected the QO after the (partial) season he had, but it’s also easy to understand why teams were hesitant to sign him.

Kendrys Morales, 2013

• Value of QO rejected: $14.1 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $7.4 million (prorated)

Morales reportedly declined a three-year, $30MM extension from the Mariners during the 2013 season. Then he rejected the $14.1 million qualifying offer. He ended up signing midseason (after the draft) for $12 million, or, more accurately, $7.4 million, since his salary was prorated.

Morales was often grouped in with Nelson Cruz that winter as a pair of veteran sluggers who were held back by the qualifying offer. In hindsight, of course, teams might have been smart to be wary of Morales, but they couldn’t have been more wrong about Cruz.

Stephen Drew, 2013

• Value of QO rejected: $14.1 million
• Value of contract signed: One year, $10.1 million (prorated)

The qualifying offer was still new during the 2013-14 offseason, and players like Cruz, Morales, and Drew helped to prove why it was such a flawed system. Coming off a great year, Drew could only land a one-year, $14.1 million deal midseason (prorated to $10.1 million) to return to the Red Sox.

Up for Debate: Howie Kendrick, 2015

• Value of QO rejected: $15.8 million
• Value of contract signed: Two years, $20 million

Kendrick technically beat the total value of the qualifying offer, but with a significantly lesser AAV. Had he accepted the QO, he only would have needed to sign for $4.3 million the following offseason to beat that $20 million total. He almost certainly could have done that. Plus, he would have gotten more money sooner, which is always more valuable.