Which MLB Free Agents Will Be Most Impacted by the Qualifying Offer?

In all, there were 13 MLB free agents who received a qualifying offer (QO) this offseason, meaning they were offered a one-year contract worth $21.05 million for the 2025 campaign. Those 13 players now have until 4 p.m. (Eastern time) on Tuesday, November 19, to decide whether to take the one-year deal or reject it and explore free agency.

The decision to take the QO has not been a popular one in the past, with only 13 of the 131 MLB players who were offered a QO between 2012 and 2023 accepting it.

Many MLB teams put a qualifying offer on a player in order to ensure they get some form of compensation should that player decide to take his talents somewhere else. While a draft pick in 2025 may not exactly heal the wound caused by the departure of a Juan Soto or Pete Alonso (two players who were extended a QO by the New York Yankees and Mets, respectively), it does at least offer some chance at a future player’s potential impacting the franchise.

You can see the 13 players who received a QO this offseason by clicking here. There are some big names on the list, including Soto, Alonso, Max Fried (Atlanta Braves) and Willy Adames (Milwaukee Brewers). In fact, many of the names on the list will also be some of the coveted free agents that MLB fans will hoping their teams land this winter.

So which MLB players will be most impacted by the QO? Let’s take a look at the top three.

Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles

Having just turned 30, Santander is coming off a season where he belted a career-high 44 home runs and drove in a career-high 102 runs. He was a key to success for the Orioles in 2024 and made $11.7 million last season in his final year of arbitration.

MLBTR has forecasted that Santander will earn a four-year, $80 million contract this offseason, meaning he will have an average annual value (AAV) of $20 million. That is a bit less than the qualifying offer… but it’s only for one year. Santander might not be able to replicate his career numbers again next year, so going for a multi-year contract makes sense from his standpoint.

However, knowing the numbers and the possibilities may also work against him when it comes to another team rolling the dice on that production and giving up a draft pick.

While the homers and RBI were great, there were another numbers of concern when it comes to Santander, including batting average and on base percentage numbers that were lower in 2024 as well as defensive metrics that don’t exactly put him in Gold Glove territory. With that in mind, could a team that signs him to a long-term deal be penciling him in as their designated hitter of the future?

There are things to love about Santander, but there are also some red flags that may make that qualifying offer just one more thing that MLB suitors have to consider before deciding to move forward with him.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox

This will be an interesting decision to watch. The Athletic predicted that Pivetta would score a three-year, $48 million deal on the open marker this winter, meaning if he accepts the qualifying offer, he could have almost half of that projection in one year by returning to the Red Sox.

A career 4.76 ERA/4.36 FIP/1.316 WHIP pitching slash line across 1029.1 innings indicates the Red Sox know what they’re going to get from Pivetta … and perhaps they are willing to overpay to bring him back for one season as a part of the rotation. If that’s the case and Pivetta is willing to go back for another one-year deal, this could be one of the 13 who were extended a QO who will accept it.

If Pivetta doesn’t accept the QO, he may find the market isn’t willing to spend for shoulder-shrugging statistics and the loss of a draft pick. Entering his age-32 season, the right-hander still has potential for the future with a fastball-slider combination that can be effective. However, when Pivetta isn’t able to fool the batter, he often pays the price as his career hard-hit rate (the percentage of time where the ball is in play at 95 mph or higher) is at 41.3 percent, a little higher than the MLB average of 38.8 percent.

Still, despite all of that, there are teams that are rumored to be interested in Pivetta, perhaps causing the Red Sox to believe the QO was the right path to take.

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Manaea put together a solid season in Queens, reaching a career-high in innings pitched with 181.2 while logging an ERA+ of 114, his highest mark in a season where he made double-digit starts since 2018. Add all of that in with the addition of Scott Boras as his agent and it’s easy to see why the 32-year-old southpaw will be looking to make the most of his 2024 success with a contract that extends well beyond 2025.

It will be interesting to see just how valued Manaea is in the minds of MLB executives knowing they will have to deal with Boras and give up a draft pick to land him. His 3.47 ERA was nearly a run lower than it was when he pitched for the San Francisco Giants in 2023, so there’s little doubt that he made the most of his one-year, $14.5 million deal with the Mets.

As our own Ryan Finklestein wrote in this article, Manaea pitched every bit like an ace down the stretch when the Mets needed every victory to get into the postseason. While he was roughed up by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series (eight hits and seven earned runs surrendered in 7.0 innings over two starts), the Mets would like to have Manaea back for (at least) one more year. However, MLB insider Jon Heyman projects a four-year, $72 million deal for Manaea this winter, meaning a lower AAV in the first year will be, in theory, shrugged off for the longer contract.

Expect the Boras-QO combination to keep Manaea on the sidelines until well into the new year.