Paul Goldschmidt is Rebuilding His Value Before Free Agency

The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the more confusing teams in baseball over the past few years. Armed with two future Hall of Famers in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, it was baffling to see the Cards finish in last place in the NL Central last season.

Surely there was never going to be a universe where they underperformed again, right? That must’ve just been a weird one-off type of season, right?

Right?

Not exactly, but at the very least, the Cardinals have been better this year. They sit 72-72, which in itself is an improvement from where they were a calendar year ago. They’re 11 games out in the NL Central and six-and-a-half games behind in the Wild Card race, but the incremental improvements have been noticeable.

Arenado and Goldschmidt have both had their respective struggles this year, especially in the first half. The two corner infielders are both getting up there in age, but the statistical drop-off has been pretty dramatic and sudden. Certainly not what you’d expect from two one-time superstars.

Arenado hit .303 in 28 games last month, which worked wonders in boosting the stats you find on Baseball Reference. His 103 second-half wRC+ is admirable and that .730 second-half OPS isn’t great, but it’s climbing.

It’s nice to see Arenado turning things around, but we’re here to focus on the first baseman across the diamond from him. 2024 is a crucial year for Goldschmidt, let’s dive into what’s gone wrong and where there’s been some glimmers of hope as of late.

Paul Goldschmidt’s Second-Half Showing Provides Hope

Goldschmidt has been making much larger strides as the year’s second half marches on. His numbers have been rising by the day, as has his stock as a pending free agent. There’s never a better time to put together a strong year than when you’re going to be hitting the open market, so Goldschmidt has undoubtedly been feeling the pressure this year.

Yet, he’s had a hard time putting it together. It’s hardly a shock to see a player who just turned 37-years old failing to produce at the level he once did. Not many players are able to roll into their late-30s and early-40s and continue to perform at an All-Star level.

Still, we’re talking about a player who’s likely ticketed for Cooperstown and just recently won his first NL MVP Award two years ago.

In the first half of this year, “Goldy” hit just .230 with an 87 wRC+ and a strikeout rate above 28%. His power had fallen off and he was looking a lot like a shell of the player he once was.

To his credit, he’s turned things around in a big way. In 45 second-half games, the seven-time All-Star has a .282 average and a 131 wRC+, as well as an ISO of .224 which is way up from the .143 he posted in the first half. Suddenly, he looks like the Goldschmidt of old.

At one point, it was hard to imagine Goldschmidt earning another contract once he hit free agency at the conclusion of this year. Reputation and track record be damned, he just did not look like a player that still had it. But now, he’s doing everything right as he looks to rebuild some value right before he hits the open market for the very first time in his career.

Cardinals Reunion Far From Guaranteed

There’s no doubt that the Cardinals are grateful for the six-year run they got out of Goldschmidt. That doesn’t mean they’re locks to pursue him once he hits free agency, even if he’s already announced that he’s planning on playing in 2025.

If I’m the Cardinals, I need to sit back and realize that I’ve already gotten the very best years out of this historic player. His eight-year tenure on the Diamondbacks was outstanding, but that MVP didn’t come as a member of the Snakes, it came while he was in a Cardinals uniform.

There are already a few potential Goldschmidt replacements in-house over in St. Louis. Chief among them is 6-foot-4, 285lb. behemoth Luken Baker.

Baker, 27, has light-tower power and has hit over 30 home runs in each of the past two minor league seasons. This year, he hit 32 of them with 79 RBI in 108 games, hitting .231 with an .880 OPS, good for a wRC+ of 120, which is 20% above league-average.

The Cardinals have kept Baker cooking in the minors for long enough. Now fans are clamoring to see what the organization has in their next big slugging first baseman.

Alec Burleson, who plays both first base and the corner outfield, represents another intriguing option. The 25-year-old is having an excellent sophomore season, hitting 21 home runs and driving in 73 while sporting a .755 OPS and 109 wRC+. He dominates right-handed pitching and struggles against left-handers. Could there be a first base platoon in 2025?

Sure, and it’d be a whole lot cheaper than Goldschmidt alone would be. Again, the Cardinals are a smart organization, so they should take the hint that their aging player isn’t longer the superstar he once was. Let the young guys play and spend that money elsewhere.

Then Where Does Goldy Land?

Here’s what we know:

• Goldschmidt has a mile-long track record of being a great clubhouse presence and has been a leader on every team he’s ever played for.

• He wants to play next season.

• Multiple teams will their current starting first baseman in free agency soon.

By far the most notable first baseman that’ll be a free agent is Pete Alonso, who’s having a down year in the power department but remains one of the premier power hitters in baseball.

Beyond him, Christian Walker will hit the market, as will Carlos Santana and Josh Bell. Cody Bellinger can opt out and both Rhys Hoskins and Ryan O’Hearn have 2025 club options. There’s no guarantee this trio even hits free agency, but the position becomes that much deeper on the open market if they do.

One of the top teams that stands out as a fit for Goldschmidt is at his old stomping grounds in the desert. The Dbacks would be foolish not to pursue a reunion with Walker, but he’d be cheaper for a team like the Mets to bring aboard than Alonso, so there could be a ton of players swapping teams.

With Arizona firmly in their contention window, a one-year deal for Goldschmidt makes a ton of sense.

The Mariners will lose Justin Turner to free agency and are also eyeing contention. They’ve already got an incredible starting rotation, why not bring in Goldschmidt on a short-term deal and see what happens? He’d be an upgrade over Turner and Ty France.

Don’t forget about the Yankees either. Anthony Rizzo and his 2025 club option will 100% be cut loose and since Ben Rice has faded into the background, Goldschmidt could be the team’s best option as a stopgap until another option presents itself.

Closing Thoughts

Goldschmidt is not quite the player he once was, that much is clear. However this second-half run he’s on is going to go a long way to extending his career. A multi-time All-Star, former MVP and thorough clubhouse leader is always something teams (especially contending ones) need more of.

If Goldy is able to continue this stretch of play, he’s a lock to land at least a one-year pact in his first trip through free agency.

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