Who Is the Most Dangerous Wild Card?

In less than a week now, the 2024 MLB Postseason will get underway with the Wild Card Series matchups.

And the league truly has it all with the teams left in the mix. Among them are league powerhouses on the rise, like the San Diego Padres, or those struggling as of late, like the Baltimore Orioles.

There are red-hot feel-good stories like the Detroit Tigers and the New York Mets.

There are teams looking to live up to the immense expectations after falling short in years past like the Seattle Mariners and the Minnesota Twins.

There are even newcomers looking to show that they belong back on the postseason scene like the Kansas City Royals.

And then there are teams that have been there and done that and have gone dancing in the World Series recently, like the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We all know anything can happen in October, just ask the 2014 San Francisco Giants, the 2019 Washington Nationals, or even the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers, who all reached the promised land after getting their chance through the Wild Card rounds.

Now it’s time to answer the question, who is the most dangerous team still in the Wild Card mix?

Stats updated prior to games on September 26.

Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals

Both the Orioles and the Royals are in the midst of impressive 2024 campaigns. Across the board, both teams have the star-caliber names they need in their lineups and pitching staffs to make a deep run.

But in the case of Baltimore, a poor second half has seen many of their flaws get exploited and has made them appear less like the powerhouse we thought them to be on all fronts heading into the All-Star break.

And Kansas City was in the midst of a great second half until a recent seven-game losing skid set them back and exposed their issues when it comes to scoring runs and getting offense from anyone besides potential 2024 AL MVP Bobby Witt Jr.

3. Atlanta Braves

Few teams have faced the adversity the Braves have faced in 2024.

They lost their ace, Spencer Strider, just two games into the season when he needed internal brace surgery on his elbow. Then, they had to send the reigning NL MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., to the IL with a season ending ACL tear in late May. After multiple IL stints this season, premier set-up man A.J. Minter ultimately found his way onto the 60-day IL last month with hip inflammation.

And while all of this was happening, other star names like Matt Olson and Austin Riley were enduring down years from a production standpoint.

So, the fact that the Braves have gone through all of this and still find themselves entering play on September 26 just one game back from the Diamondbacks and Mets is a testament to certain pieces stepping up in a big way.

Suddenly, Atlanta looks like a force to be reckoned with on all fronts.

The Offense

While the Braves’ 101 wRC+ as a team may sit tied for 15th in the league in 2024, certain pieces have elevated themselves throughout the year to keep this team in the fight here in the final stretch.

Marcell Ozuna was flirting with the NL Triple Crown just a few weeks ago and still finds himself as one of the best hitters in the majors this season. He’s currently a 159-wRC+ and 4.9-fWAR player who’s sporting a .310 average and a .946 OPS with 39 HR and 102 RBI.

And despite having a down year, the aforementioned Olson is still an above-average hitter with a 118 wRC+, 29 HR and 98 RBI this season. He has also been hitting his stride in recent weeks.

In the month of September, the Braves slugging first baseman has looked more like the hitter that posted a 161 wRC+ and a .993 OPS in 2023. Through 21 games this month, he’s posted a 186 wRC+ with a 1.045 OPS.

And the supporting cast to this formidable duo has stepped up big time in the month of September.

2022 NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II has been arguably the Braves best hitter this month. In 21 games, he’s sporting a team leading 1.2 fWAR along with a 170 wRC+ while hitting to the tune of a .337 AVG and a 1.003 OPS with eight homers and 18 RBI.

Finally, trade deadline acquisition Jorge Soler has been everything the Braves could have hoped for in the final month, as he’s slashing .284/.347/.552 with a 144 wRC+ over his last 20 games.

The Starting Rotation

This surge in offense is accompanied by a rotation that has been one of the strongest in the league this season.

In 2024 as whole, Atlanta’s starters rank second in MLB in fWAR at 16.5, third in ERA at 3.64 and first in FIP at 3.49.

They’ve been led by presumptive NL Cy Young frontrunner and 2018 World Series Champion Chris Sale and his 2.38 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 1.01 WHIP and 94th-percentile K-rate (per Baseball Savant) that’s led him to an NL leading 225 strikeouts this season.

While he hasn’t been the sub-3.00 ERA pitcher the Braves had seen in three of the last four years prior to 2024, Max Fried still sports a more than respectable 3.42 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and .230 AVG against in 165.2 innings of work.

Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has been lights out since the All-Star break, and as of right now could very well be the Game 2 option for a Wild Card series, slotting in behind Sale.

Among Braves starters with 50+ innings pitched since the regular season resumed on July 19, Schwellenbach has posted a second-half ERA of 2.88, which only trails Sale, and a team-leading 1.01 WHIP and .220 AVG in 72.0 innings across 12 starts.

Several reports have surfaced, including from David O’Brien of The Athletic, that Reynaldo López could be set for a return to major league action soon after a successful bullpen session.

If López is able to insert himself back into the rotation, it will certainly be a welcomed addition, as before he went on the IL he was in the midst of a sensational season resulting in his first career All-Star nod. In 128.2 innings across 24 starts, López has posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a .222 AVG against.

We can’t look past the veteran presence of Charlie Morton either, who’s still managed a 4.08 ERA in 161.0 innings this season. He also could be entering the postseason coming off the best month of his season.

Through four starts in September, Morton is sporting a 3.04 ERA. In three of those starts, he earned six or more strikeouts. Not bad for a 40-year-old grizzled veteran.

The Bullpen

And how could we not talk about the Braves being a dangerous Wild Card team in October without referencing their bullpen?

The Braves ‘pen has been one of the league’s better units all season long. They sit third in the majors in fWAR as group at 6.0, one of only three teams to post an fWAR above 6.0. They also rank third in the league in reliever ERA at 3.30, second in FIP at 3.41 and tied for sixth in WHIP at 1.19.

They’ve been led by marquee closer Raisel Iglesias this season, who’s sporting a shimmering 1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and .150 AVG against to go along with 32 saves.

And with Joe Jiménez, Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee and Pierce Johnson backing up Iglesias, paired with that great rotation, there’s a clear sense that every inning is accounted for.

2. New York Mets

It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Mets in 2024. By the time June rolled around, the team had seemingly hit rock bottom, they sat at 24-33 and had just DFA’d Jorge López after an on-field debacle where he launched his glove into the stands.

So, after a 9-19 record in the month of May, the Mets fell to dead last in our MLB power rankings heading into June.

Since then though, the Mets have completely turned their season on its head and not only gotten themselves back into the postseason conversation, but they’re in the drivers seat of an NL Wild Card spot. With a 63-37 record in their last 100 games, they have a legitimate shot to make some serious noise in October.

The Offense

Since June 1, the Mets have featured a top 10 offense across the board.

They hold the third highest team wRC+ at 118. They also sit third in OPS at .770, eighth in AVG at .254, sixth in HR at 142 and fourth in RBI at 490.

They’ve been led by their fearless leader Francisco Lindor, who before missing some games recently with back issues, had a very real chance to challenge the presumed 2024 NL MVP Shohei Ohtani.

Since the season turnaround, Lindor has slashed .297/.370/.551 with 22 HR and 57 RBI leading to a 158 wRC+ and a 5.8 fWAR in his last 414 plate appearances across 91 games.

And Lindor’s supporting cast within the lineup has also shown up and contributed to the Mets’ surging offense.

Mark Vientos has been the guy that’s made the biggest impact. He’s sporting a 132 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR with a .262 AVG, .834 OPS, 23 HR and 60 RBI in his last 383 plate appearances across 92 games.

It almost certainly won’t be another 40+ HR and 100+ RBI season for Pete Alonso. But despite what’s been a down year for him, he’s still been an all-around solid contributor for the Mets in 2024 with a 125 wRC+, .242 AVG, .800 OPS, 34 HR and 88 RBI. And since June 1, Alonso has appeared in all 100 games while sporting a 131 wRC+ and .818 OPS.

And how about the pop star himself? Veteran shortstop Jose Iglesias has been a godsend to New York during this turnaround. Outside of Lindor, he leads all Mets hitters, (minimum of 200 plate appearances) since June 1 in wRC+ at 139, fWAR at 2.5 and OPS at .840.

Tyrone Taylor (112 wRC+), Brandon Nimmo (110 wRC+), Francisco Alvarez (103 wRC+) and J.D. Martinez (101 wRC+) have all been above average hitters in the last 100 games as well.

The Starting Rotation

It wasn’t just the offense that took a big step forward come June 1. The Mets rotation has been fantastic from that point on as well.

Mets’ starters sit third in the league in ERA at 3.67 and sixth in both WHIP, at 1.21, and AVG against, at .231.

Sean Manaea has been at the forefront of it all, as the 32-year-old lefty is turning in a career year for the Mets in 2024. For the season, across 31 starts, he’s managed a 3.29 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and a .196 AVG against. And since the Mets’ rise in the standings, he’s sporting a 3.34 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a .183 AVG against in 126.2 innings across his last 21 starts.

Luis Severino has enjoyed a career revitalization in 2024 as well. In 31 starts himself, he’s pitched to the tune of a sub 4.00 ERA (3.91) as well as a 1.24 WHIP and .241 AVG against. And he’s entering the postseason on a hot note, turning in an impressive month of September with a mid-3.00s ERA (3.64) and 1.15 WHIP in five starts.

If we’re talking about bounce back campaigns, how about the season Jose Quintana is putting together? After just 13 starts in 2023, Quintana has made 30 starts so far in 2024 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .232 AVG against.

His starts have only gotten more impressive as the season as gone on. Since June 1, Quintana has posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and hitters are only managing to hit at a .212 clip against him. Add to that a recent stretch in which he hasn’t surrendered an earned run in four of his last five starts, including all three in September.

Quintana is suddenly one of the hottest pitchers in the league just days away from the postseason.

And in terms of starters elevating their game after the first third of the season, David Peterson more than fits that criteria. In his last 19 starts, Peterson has thrown 109.0 innings and posted a 3.06 ERA with a sub .250 AVG against (.246). Not bad for a guy that put up a 5.03 ERA in 21 starts in 2023.

Between these four and the impressive innings that Tylor Megill has provided of late, the Mets seem to have the bulk of their postseason innings accounted for.

The Bullpen

Out of these three facets of the roster, the Mets ‘pen is their weakest area. They sit middle of the table in ERA (17th at 3.96), FIP (13th at 3.89) and WHIP (T-16th at 1.27). But they do sit tied for fourth in the league in average against at .220.

And it’s hard not to say the Mets don’t have anything to get excited about in their ‘pen. When Timmy Trumpet starts playing and one of the league’s better closers in recent years, Edwin Díaz, steps onto the mound, there’s certainly an adundance of hope to be had.

For the season, Díaz is sporting a 3.35 ERA, a 3.09 FIP, a 1.00 WHIP and a .181 AVG against with 20 saves across 51.0 innings of work. Since the June 1 turnaround, Díaz has posted a 2.03 ERA, with an 0.84 WHIP while hitters are managing to hit at just a .143 clip off of him.

And between José Buttó, Phil Maton and Reed Garrett accounting for the back end innings, the thriving starting group is suddenly supported by an equally thriving bullpen to close out games.

1. San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are the most complete of all the teams left in the Wild Card mix. They are star-studded in their lineup, rotation and bullpen and have the numbers to back it up.

And not only will they likely be in the driver’s seat with home-field advantage for a best-of-three Wild Card series, they’re approaching the postseason on a red-hot note, as they sit 10-3 in their last 13 games.

The Offense

There’s a few differences between the Padres offense and that of the two Wild Card teams that rank behind them on my list.

San Diego simply has more top level talent in their lineup than the Mets do as of right now. And while the Braves might be able to match the offensive star talent of the Padres, San Diego’s lineup has produced at a consistently high level all season long, whereas the Braves stars like Olson and Harris have been streaky to say the least.

San Diego’s high flying offense has been one of MLB’s top performers all season. The Friars sit fifth in the league in wRC+ at 112, sixth in OPS at .747, first in AVG at .264 and ninth in RBI at 713. They are one of just 10 teams to eclipse the 700-RBI plateau.

They owe a lot of this to the play of their three-headed monster in the outfield.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been electric since returning from the IL. In 425 plate appearances over 99 games, he’s sporting a 140 wRC+ while hitting .282 with a .851 OPS.

Jackson Merrill is in the midst of a season where he’s made a very strong case to walk home with NL Rookie of the Year. He’s hitting .292 with an .826 OPS and a 130 wRC+ in 582 plate appearances.

And San Diego’s best offensive performer this season has arguably been the comeback player of the year: Jurickson Profar. The former top prospect earned his first All-Star nod this season at age 31 while hitting .283 with a .848 OPS and a 141 wRC+ in 654 plate appearances.

We can’t talk about the Padres without mentioning Manny Machado. Like most seasons for Machado, it’s been more “Manny being Manny” like we’ve become accustomed to. The superstar third baseman is on pace for at least a 120 wRC+ in his fourth season of six since moving to San Diego ahead of the 2019 campaign. In 2024, he’s posted a 123 wRC+ to go along with a .275 average and an .803 OPS.

Then with All-Star caliber bats like Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth to complement those star hitters, and excellent depth options including the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka (both of whom are above league average in wRC+), it’s hard to find holes in this offense heading into October.

The Starting Rotation

The Padres have a ton of names in this rotation that would instill fear into any opponent who has to face them.

And they have the numbers to back up the names. The Padres rotation sits fifth in the league in fWAR at 13.8. They sit just outside the top 10 in MLB for starter ERA, finding themselves at 13th with a 3.89 team ERA.

They make up for that in FIP where they sit in a tie for sixth at 3.87. The also find themselves with the seventh best marks in both WHIP and AVG against at 1.22 and .236, respectively.

A postseason four-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King would keep any offense up at night.

The Bullpen

I firmly believe that San Diego has the caliber of bullpen that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NL. From a league-wide standpoint, their bullpen only certainly falls short of the Cleveland Guardians and their ridiculously impressive ‘pen.

The Padres relief corps sits tied for fifth in MLB in fWAR at 5.7. Just like their rotation, their bullpen narrowly misses out on the top 10 in ERA (11th at 3.73) but makes up for that by sitting third in MLB in FIP at 3.54. And they rank tied for eighth in WHIP at 1.22.

Few teams have the luxury that San Diego has at the back end of the bullpen, and that’s having two elite arms that can legitimately go and close out a ball game in Robert Suarez and Tanner Scott.

Suarez has anchored San Diego’s bullpen all season, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a .218 AVG against with 35 saves across 64.0 innings of work.

Scott has been very impressive slotting in as the secondary closing option to Suarez since being dealt to the Padres from Miami at the trade deadline. In 25.2 innings of work in San Diego, Scott is sporting a 2.10 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and a .237 AVG against with four saves.

In 2024 as whole, between the Padres and the Marlins, Scott has posted a sub 2.00 ERA (1.51) with a 1.08 WHIP, .167 AVG against and 22 saves.

And then with a supporting cast of Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon and Bryan Hoeing, the Padres have more than enough to account for nine innings of any postseason game this October.

There’s not too many teams in majors at the moment who can say that their bullpen goes six deep with trusted arms like San Diego’s, on top of having an elite starting rotation and a star-studded offense.

This team is made for October and could be poised for another NL pennant run like they went on in 2022. This time around, they’ll look to exorcise their demons and make their first World Series appearance since 1998.