By Definition, Francisco Lindor is the Real NL MVP
Francisco Lindor does not just deserve to be in the conversation to be the NL MVP, he should be leading it as the favorite to win the award.
Two weeks ago, I wrote my case for why Francisco Lindor deserves to be the NL MVP. You can read my entire thesis if you scroll down below, but first, I would like you to consider the moments that Lindor has had for the New York Mets in the mere 11 days since we published this article.
The article was written after the first game of the Mets four-game series against the red-hot San Diego Padres that began on August 22nd. The Mets won the first and the third game of that series, with Lindor carrying the Mets to a 7-1 win in Game 3.
Lindor got the Mets started with a grand slam swinging from the left side of the plate. Later in the game he turned it into a 5-RBI day when he hit a solo shot right-handed.
The Mets went on to split their four-game set against the Padres, before heading to Arizona for a pivotal series against Diamondbacks next.
After winning the first game by a score of 8-3, Edwin Diaz gave up a late grand slam to Corbin Carroll that burned the Mets and evened the series up at one game apiece.
With the season series hanging in the balance, the Mets and D-Backs played a rubber match on August 29th. It was a game that could hold serious playoff ramifications in the Wild Card race, as the winner would own the tiebreaker at the end of the year.
Pete Alonso got the scoring going with a solo homer in the second inning, but the D-Backs took the lead an inning later on a two-run shot by Randal Grichuk. Ryne Nelson was keeping the Mets’ bats at bay, particularly Lindor, registering two of his four strikeouts on the day to the MVP candidate.
Lindor looked ugly in those first two at-bats, but with his team trailing 2-1 in the top of the sixth inning, the Mets leader put together an incredible at-bat. Lindor got ahead 2-0, then looked ugly and swinged through two pitches.
With the count even, Lindor fouled off a 97 MPH fastball, then watched ball three to bring the count full. He would proceed to waste four pitches from Nelson, staying in the at-bat for over 10 pitches.
On pitch No. 11, Lindor got something he could handle. And he put it in the seats to tie the game.
The Mets went on to win that game by a score of 3-2, as they finished off the Diamondbacks to win the season series and earn the tiebreaker in the NL Wild Card race. New York then headed to Chicago, where they had the worst team in baseball waiting for them.
In the first two games of their series on the South Side, the Mets cruised to victories with ease, scoring five runs in each game. The final game of the series was a bit more difficult, as the Mets had to face off against Garrett Crochet.
Crochet was dialed from pitch one, striking out the first seven batters he faced to tie a White Sox franchise record, starting with Lindor. He retired the side in order the first time through, so Lindor opened up the fourth inning as the leadoff man once again.
After watching a first pitch strike to leadoff the game, Lindor went hunting on the first pitch the second time around and got a mistake cutter by Crochet right down the middle.
Sean Manaea made that one run from Lindor hold up, as he pitched seven scoreless innings staked to just that one-run lead. The Mets get insurance in the 9th, and went on to win the game 2-0 to complete the series sweep of the White Sox.
That all bring us to this week, where the Mets have opened up their second-to-last homestand with a three-game series against Boston Red Sox. Lindor went 2-for-3 with a run scored and an RBI in a Mets victory on Monday night, their fifth-straight win.
They went on to extend that winning streak on Tuesday night, as Lindor hit his 30th home run of the season to get the Mets an early lead.
With the Mets clinging to a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th, Lindor added to the Mets lead with an RBI double. He went on to take a running lead and easily swiped his 26th base of the season, before scoring on a two-run homer by Pete Alonso that broke the game wide-open.
In doing so, the Mets have now not only won their sixth-straight game, they have won their third-series in a row. With 23 games left to play, the Mets are a half game out of a playoff spot.
Lindor is in the midst of a 32-game on-base streak, in which he has hit safely in each of his last 14 games.
Since the article was originally published, Lindor has gone 15-for-46, with five home runs and 11 RBIs. Those numbers nearly mirror Shohei Ohtani, who has gone 14-for-46 with five HRs and 11 RBIs.
The only difference is that Ohtani has stolen seven bases to Lindor’s one, swiping three bases on Monday night to get to 46 on the season.
With every stolen base and every home run, Ohtani reaches uncharted waters with his HR/SB prowess, but is that really more valuable than what Lindor is doing?
In an isolated 11-game stretch, these guys have played each other to a heat offensively, where you then have to ask yourself what is more valuable. What Ohtani does on the basepaths alone, or what Lindor does on both the basepaths and out in the field defensively.
Lindor’s presence on the diamond as the captain of the Mets defense at shortstop is certainly more valuable than what Ohtani can do on the bases. No matter how historic.
If we were looking for an MVP of the last three months, there is no question who would win the award, as Lindor is pacing Ohtani by nearly two whole wins in fWAR. Lindor is also leading the league on the season as a whole at 7.2, to Ohtani’s 6.7 fWAR.
What voters will have to decide come season’s end is if Lindor’s finish as the best player in the National League is worth ignoring his brutal start to the season.
As you can read from my original article below, I believe Lindor played Ohtani to about a draw through August 22nd, and would be deserving of the MVP if he can outplay him down the stretch in September and lead the Mets into the playoffs.
We know how Ohtani will be spending the final 23 games of the season, as he is going to push the envelope on making history with as many home runs and stolen bases as possible.
Those stats will likely help the Dodgers cruise to the No. 1 seed in the National League, as L.A. has dominated all year whenever they have had their trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman together on the field at the same time.
Meanwhile Lindor’s Mets are in a fight for their playoff hopes every night, as they are in a tight race with the Atlanta Braves for the final Wild Card spot, while only 3.5 games back of the Padres and three games back of the Diamondbacks for the top two slots.
Our own Patrick D. Lyons made the case for why Shohei Ohtani deserves the NL MVP today, and he makes it sound like an open-and-shut case that he will become the first DH ever to win the award.
Over the final few weeks of the season, keep checking back on this article, as I will continue to update it as Lindor builds his resume to steal the award.
Original Story Published on August 23rd:
There is no player in the National League that has been more valuable to their team this year than Francisco Lindor. Sure, Shohei Ohtani has had the best offensive season, and has an outside shot at the Triple Crown.
Yes, Ketel Marte has had a better offensive year than Lindor as well, thanks in large part to a recent hot streak where he has carried the Arizona Diamondbacks past Lindor’s Mets in the NL Wild Card race.
But with Marte on the IL, the NL MVP race could very well come down to Lindor or Ohtani, and that is a race that will challenge voters to really contemplate how we measure value. If the NL MVP was a best offensive player award, you could all stop reading and just give the award to Ohtani.
What we are talking about however, is Most Valuable.
And by definition, there has been no player more valuable to their team than Lindor.
Through his play and leadership, Lindor has set the tone for a Mets team that has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround from when they looked dead in the water at the end of May.
Now in position to knock of the Braves and punch their ticket to October, Francisco Lindor has put himself squarely in the MVP conversation.
All stats taken prior to play on August 22nd.
Francisco Lindor, WAR Merchant
Since Francisco Lindor made his MLB debut back in 2015, there have only been two players more valuable when it comes to Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement. Mookie Betts and Mike Trout.
Lindor is one of three players who has accumulated over 50 WAR over the past decade, checking in with a 52.7 fWAR. When it comes to shortstops, Lindor is pacing the league by over 10 wins, with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts being the only other shortstops to cross over even 40 WAR.
While Lindor has been the undisputed best shortstop in baseball when you look at the decade in totality, there have obviously been times where Turner, Corey Seager, or even Carlos Correa have been deemed better for a given season.
This year, it is Bobby Witt Jr. who has claimed the top shortstop crown.
What Lindor does better than anyone else however is play everyday, and help his team in every way possible, even when he is lacking with the bat. Lindor is a great defensive shortstop, anchoring his teams with steady play at the most important position.
Since 2015, Lindor’s 133 Outs Above Average is by far the best mark in the game, with Nolan Arenado checking in at 102 OAA for second-best.
Lindor is also an excellent baserunner, adding to his WAR total every time he swipes a bag, or goes first-to-third on a base hit.
Sometimes we will look at fWAR totals and discredit Lindor because so much of his WAR is built on his defense, baserunning and the fact that he plays everyday. While hitting 50 home runs is extremely valuable to a club, what Lindor brings to the table raises the bar for everyone around him.
By playing great defense and leading the infield, Lindor makes his pitchers better. By running the bases well, Lindor helps his teammates produce more runs. And by playing everyday, Lindor sets the tone for his club day-in and day-out.
Still, if Lindor wasn’t doing it with the bat as well, there is no way he would be in the conversation for the MVP award. The reason why he is in the mix is because he is enjoying a career-year at 30 years old.
Getting Stronger as the Year Wears On
When you look at the stats for this season, it is clear why Shohei Ohtani is currently the betting favorite to win the NL MVP at -5000.
Lindor is sitting at +5000, trailing both Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna at +1200.
Ohtani and Ozuna have been the best two bats in the National League, posting consistent production wire-to-wire this season. They will each soon clear 40 home runs and 100 runs driven in.
When you compare Ohtani’s stats to Lindor, he blows him out of the water in most categories.
| Slash Line | HR | SB | wRC+ | fWAR | |
| Lindor | .273/.343/.500 | 30 | 26 | 137 | 7.2 |
| Ohtani | .292/.377/.617 | 44 | 46 | 169 | 6.7 |
Ohtani is about to join the 40-40 club, and there is every chance he could become the first player to ever reach the 50-50 club, with 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He is leading the National League in home runs, and is six behind Ozuna in RBIs.
At .309, Ozuna is leading the NL in batting, with Ohtani trailing behind at .291. There is a chance that either Ohtani or Ozuna could win the Triple Crown this season.
Lindor trails behind Ohtani in every single stat except for fWAR, which is largely due to the fact that Ohtani is a DH and sees his fWAR docked because of it, whereas Lindor earns a ton of fWAR back for his play at shortstop.
The more we follow the stats into the season though, Lindor has slowly but surely narrowed that gap in offensive statistics.
For example, Lindor started this season on a brutal stretch where he went 1-for-31 across his first eight games played. On April 7th, Lindor hit his first home run of the season, part of a 2-for-5 day.
Even by eliminated just over one week of Lindor’s season, he gets much closer to Ohtani in his offensive statistics.
| Slash Line | HR | SB | wRC+ | fWAR | |
| Lindor | .287/.353/.527 | 30 | 26 | 147 | 7.5 |
| Ohtani | .291/.379/.626 | 42 | 45 | 172 | 6.4 |
By getting rid of that 1-for-31 to start the season, you can see that Lindor has largely hit over .280 this season, with a wRC+ over 140. Those stats are more in line with being an MVP than his current numbers would suggest.
We can take things even further with Lindor though, as he has seemingly gotten stronger month-over-month all year long.
The biggest change that has been pointed to for Lindor, and the Mets, has been moving him into the leadoff spot back in the middle of May.
When Lindor was put into the leadoff spot for the first time on May 18th, he was carrying a .195/.268/.362 slash line, with seven home runs in 43 games played. Since then, over the last 83 games started in the leadoff spot, Lindor has been one of the best hitters in baseball.
| Slash Line | HR | RBI | SB | wRC+ | fWAR | |
| Lindor | .307/.376/.561 | 23 | 63 | 20 | 163 | 6.4 |
| Ohtani | .260/.353/.588 | 31 | 67 | 35 | 153 | 3.7 |
All of a sudden, we have a sample size of 80+ games where Lindor has posted a better batting average than Ohtani and nearly the same on-base percentage. Ohtani clears him in home runs, slugging percentage, stolen bases and RBIs, but only by handful in the RBI department.
Based on wRC+, an all-encompassing offensive metric where the league average is 100, Lindor has actually been a slightly better hitter than Ohtani over the past three months. When it comes to fWAR, Lindor has been nearly two and half wins better.
In a recent piece by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Francisco Lindor was asked about his season and what it meant to be receiving MVP chants at Citi Field. He said the following:
“It brings a smile to my face because it would be a dream,” Lindor said, “but I understand we’ve still got a long way to go, and I’ve got to put up way better numbers. If the fans feel that way, it’s fantastic. But I got to continue to climb. I got to continue to help the team win.
“MVPs are not won in June and July. MVPs are won in August and September.”
Lindor has the right mindset to attack this final stretch of the season, as the Mets need every win they can get to make the playoffs. The narrative for Lindor is reliant on the Mets punching their ticket to October, but it will also require a standout close to his season.
If we look at what Lindor has down over the past seven weeks dating back to the first of July, all of a sudden the numbers heavily skew in his favor over Ohtani.
| Slash Line | HR | SB | wRC+ | fWAR | |
| Lindor | .308/.383/.586 | 17 | 11 | 171 | 4.2 |
| Ohtani | .244/.338/.564 | 18 | 30 | 151 | 2.3 |
In a 46-game sample for Lindor, 43-game sample for Ohtani, the Mets shortstop is leading in both batting average and on-base percentage by a wide margin. He trails by only one home run, and has cleared Ohtani in RBIs.
Lindor’s 163 wRC+ is 20 points better than Ohtani’s 143, and he has been almost twice as valuable when you look at fWAR. If these trends continue over the final five-plus weeks of the season, Lindor’s may just finish with the more compelling MVP case.
If Shohei Ohtani gets hot down the stretch and ends up winning the Triple Crown, he would be the only player other than Miguel Cabrera to have accomplished that feat since 1967. Again, he also could be the first ever to make the 50-50 club.
Both of those milestones are within Ohtani’s grasp, and either would make him more than worthy of becoming the first DH-only ever to win the MVP. That does not however mean he deserves the award over Lindor if we get back to what should define the phrase “most valuable”.
Should We Care About Who is on Your Team?
If this was basketball, Shohei Ohtani joining the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency would be like Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors. A stacked team landing the game’s best player in free agency. Does that mean he all of a sudden ceases to be the game’s best player?
Of course not. Ohtani has proven to be the best hitter in the National League. When he gets back on the mound next season, the combination of his offensive production and whatever he gives the Dodgers on the hill will be far more valuable than anyone else in the sport.
This year, Ohtani only has the bat however. And maybe his legs, which he has turned into a real asset this season, where he could very well double his career-high stolen base total. Ohtani remains an enigma, but has he brought more value to the Dodgers than Lindor has brought to the Mets?
On June 17th, the Los Angeles Dodgers put then-shortstop Mookie Betts on the IL with a broken hand. At the time, Betts was Ohtani’s chief competition in the NL MVP race, as he was leading the National League with a 3.3 fWAR, 0.1 ahead of Ohtani at 3.2,
With Betts and Ohtani together, the Dodgers were 44-29 (.637) and held an eight-game lead in the NL West. In 45 games without Betts, the Dodgers went 25-20 (.556), as they maintained their standing atop the NL West, but saw their competitors creep closer.
Since Betts has returned, now playing right field, the Dodgers have won seven of their last 10 games.
Now Ohtani should be credited for keeping the Dodgers afloat without Betts, and his production has remained largely consistent all year. But one has to wonder if the Dodgers could have overcome the loss of both Ohtani and Betts, and still just found a way to being in a similar position as they are in right now.
Or even further, had the Dodgers not signed Ohtani this offseason, where would they be?
It is very hard to imagine the Dodgers would ever fall out of the playoff race, given their track record. What is not hard to imagine is where the New York Mets would be this year without Lindor. Which is out of the race entirely.
Ohtani is playing with two future Hall of Famers in Betts and Freddie Freeman, Lindor has kept the Mets in the race with Brandon Nimmo and sophomore standout Mark Vientos.
Obviously the Mets have other good players with Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez being chief among them, but it is Vientos who has hit 20 home runs in just 80 games played and has posted the third-best fWAR on the team at 2.6.
Brandon Nimmo checks in at second in fWAR at 2.8, but is having a disappointing year compared to his last two campaigns.
Without Lindor, the Mets would have been dead in the water long ago. Alonso, Martinez and a slew of Mets pitchers would have likely gotten traded around the league at the deadline. Instead this team is in the race, and it is largely due to Lindor’s leadership.
Francisco Lindor’s Leadership
Along with my work here with Just Baseball, I have host a daily podcast on the New York Mets, where I have covered every at-bat of Lindor’s season up to this point.
As someone who is analyzing this team everyday, it has jumped through my television screen how much Lindor has his fingerprints on everything that has gone right with the Mets this season.
A lot of people want to credit Grimace, OMG, or whatever the next viral sensation that sweeps across social media, as the reason for the Mets success. But if you really have been paying attention, the reason the Mets have turned this season around is because of Francisco Lindor.
The Mets faced on a crossroads on May 29th, when Jorge Lopez launched his glove into a Citi Field crowed after giving up a two-run homer to none other than Shohei Ohtani.
The Mets lost that game by a score of 10-3, moving their record to 7-19 in the month of May. This matched the miserable 7-19 June the Mets posted in 2023, which largely ended their season and signaled a sell-off of a team that won 101 games in 2022.
Wanting to avoid a similar fate this year, Lindor locked the clubhouse and held a players-only meeting where the message was accountability. If everyone was accountable for themselves and went about the game the right way, the team success would follow.
After talking about accountability, Lindor put his money where his mouth is, addressing the media for over 11 minutes, explaining why it was his idea to have a players-only meeting and what the team hoped to accomplish from it.
The next day, Lindor proceeded to go 4-for-4, hitting a solo home run to open the scoring for the Mets in the third inning, before driving Pete Alonso in the 7th inning, tying the game at 2-2.
J.D. Martinez hit a homer in the 8th inning that put the Mets atop for good. Starting from that game until the end of July, the Mets had the best record in baseball at 35-18. Lindor has played in every game, often coming through in all of the clutch moments, whether with his bat or glove.
Jeff Passan does a fantastic job of breaking down Lindor’s impact in that clubhouse in his latest story for ESPN. He describes how Lindor makes rounds around the clubhouse each day, before and after every game, getting his pulse of the guys he goes to war with.
Now a 10-year veteran, Lindor has more experience than most, having reached the World Series in just his second season all the way back in 2016. Lindor never played on a losing team when he was in Cleveland, wining the division in three-straight years from 2016 through 2018.
Winning has not come nearly as easy in New York for Lindor, who has endured a few brutal seasons in 2021 and 2023, where the team largely didn’t meet expectations. Particularly last season, where Lindor still managed to post a 30-30 despite playing with a bone spur in his throwing elbow.
As someone that has covered the last four years of Lindor’s career with the Mets, this season is clearly the one where he fully took ownership of this franchise as their superstar player and captain.
Lindor holds himself to a high standard and he has done everything in his power to get his teammates to do the same. Look no further than the kid who is playing to Lindor’s right on the infield, as Mark Vientos has enjoyed a huge breakout this season.
As a prospect, many thought that Vientos’ only viable position in the big league would be first base or DH. This offseason, Lindor took Vientos under his wing to work on his defense and has continued to mentor him ever since.
Now Vientos is all of a sudden batting second, right behind Lindor, while playing everyday at the hot corner. Vientos deserves most of the credit for his success, but Lindor has definitely played a big role in getting him there.
Lindor has willed this team back into the playoff race with both his play on the field and his leadership in the clubhouse. Mets baseball has become fun again, and it would not be that if not for Lindor.
Narrative alone can’t win Lindor the MVP race, but it should be considered when we are talking about the player that has been deemed most valuable by the all-encompassing WAR metric.
Lindor’s Legacy Can Be Rooted in This Season
When you watch Francisco Lindor play baseball, you have to do it with the understanding that we are watching a player who is destined to be enshrined in Cooperstown.
The two-time Gold Glover is nearly halfway to 3,000 career hits, needing 35 more by the end of the season to reach the 1,500 mark. He is also 10 home runs shy of 250, which would place him halfway to the 500-HR club.
Now Lindor might not climb either of those mountains by the end of his career, but to get halfway there in a 10-year span is a testament to his durability and consistent production, which is clearly Hall of Fame worthy.
Lindor has been the best shortstop in baseball for the past decade. Other guys have years, Lindor has the decade and there is no disputing that based on the stats.
This year, voters have the chance to acknowledge Lindor’s consistent excellence with an MVP vote in what is looking like a career-year at age 30. Based on his play, Lindor’s prime certainly won’t be over after this season, but to say he may never top his work from 2024 is not a knock against him.
Instead it is an acknowledgment of just how instrumental he has been to his team’s success in a year where things could have easily gone the other direction without him.
In a game that is a marathon of 162 games, Lindor has gotten better month-over-month and has carried his team with him on the ride.
When we look back on Lindor’s career, particularly his time with the Mets, the 2024 season is going to be viewed as one of his crowning achievements. The year where his Hall of Fame plaque can forever be stamped as a former MVP, for a season where he took his team places they never would have gone without him.
For Shohei Ohtani, the 2024 season is just going to be a footnote in an otherwise illustrious career that will come with many MVP awards. He already has two to his name, and is likely to soak up many more in the National League for the next decade to come.
This might be the only chance Lindor has to reach that pinnacle of being considered an MVP, and he has done everything he can lately to make that case a good one.
Hopefully when the time comes for votes to be cast, voters will see the full picture of how to measure value, and realize there has been absolutely no one better in the National League than Francisco Lindor.
Written by
Ryan Finkelstein is the Managing Editor of Just Baseball, and also hosts Locked On Mets, the No. 1 daily podcast on the New York Mets.