The Orioles Have Not Been the Team We Thought They Were

After a 2023 season where the Baltimore Orioles held American League’s best record and were one of only three teams to surpass the 100-win threshold at 101-65, it’s fair to say expectations were high for them heading into 2024.

And after landing one of the prized arms on the trade market in Corbin Burnes this past offseason, Baltimore seemed even more poised to make a run at repeating their blistering form from a year ago.

So after a 58-38 record at the All-Star break, the O’s did nothing to dispel initial projections.

Led by Burnes, who started the All-Star Game, as well as an MVP-caliber first half from shortstop Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles were flying high and looked even more set to make a run at the franchise’s first World Series since 1983.

But since then, the Orioles have gone 26-30 and have seen declines in performance across the board.

Their lineup which once had no holes suddenly seems more manageable for the opposing clubs. Their starting pitching suddenly looks just as vulnerable as it has in previous years. And their bullpen doesn’t instill nearly as much confidence in shutting the door as it did to start the year.

All the while, more and more of there star pieces continue to turn in mediocre performances or worse.

So let’s take a deeper dive into why the Orioles are no longer the World Series frontrunner we once thought they were just mere months ago.

The Orioles Offense Has Been a Shell of Their Former Selves

I looked into the Orioles and how they’ve been coasting in the second half of the season in a recent article. And coasting seems too light of a term to describe their post All-Star break production at the plate. The Orioles are really struggling.

From Opening Day up to the break (July 15), the Orioles were one of the league’s most potent offenses. They ranked atop the MLB in team wRC+ (116), second in OPS (.764), first in HR (149), fourth in RBI (458), and ninth in AVG (.253), according to Fangraphs.

Since then the Orioles have slid significantly. They now rank 10th in wRC+ (107), 15th in OPS (.718) and 20th in AVG (.238), while slipping to 10th in both HR (69) and in RBI (245).

While injuries to the likes of MLB All-Star third baseman Jordan Westburg, as well as first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, have played a role in the O’s offensive woes, arguably the biggest reason for such noticeable declines has to do with the steps back that numerous key cogs within the lineup are enduring in the second half.

Adley Rutschman

Of all the Orioles hitters, Adley Rutschman best encompasses the Orioles slide in offensive metrics from the first half to the second half.

Rutschman was putting together a great season in the first half, leading him to his second-straight All-Star selection and first career All-Star starting nod.

In 404 plate appearances across 90 games, Rutschman had 16 HR and 59 RBI while hitting .275 with a .780 OPS, a 123 wRC+ and a 2.9 fWAR.

But the season has since soured for Orioles’ backstop, as he’s seen a significant decline in numbers in the second half.

In the second half, Rutschman finds himself hitting just .201 with a .587 OPS, a 70 wRC+, and a 0.2 fWAR with just three HR and 17 RBI in 193 plate appearances across 49 games.

Gunnar Henderson

Before we dive into Gunnar Henderson, I need to preface that Henderson has not been bad this season by any means. In fact it’s been the opposite.

It’s impossible to say that a player with 37 HR, 87 RBI, a .281/.365/.538 slash line, a 156 wRC+ and a 7.8 fWAR is having anything other than a fantastic season.

But when you compare Henderson’s first half of the season to his second half, there is a noticeable decline in numbers.

Heading into the break, in 432 plate appearances Henderson was second in MLB in fWAR at 5.7, fourth in wRC+ at 169, and third in HR with 28. He was also posting very strong totals elsewhere on the board by hitting .286 with a .956 OPS.

Since then Henderson is down across the board. In 247 second half plate appearances Henderson is hitting .271 with an .811 OPS, nine HR, 24 RBI, an a 133 wRC+.

Again, great totals, but a 36 point drop in wRC+ from the first half to the second half is significant regardless of how good the first half total was.

This included a poor month of August for the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, where he only managed to slash .234/.303/.405 and the Orioles subsequently went 13-15.

Jackson Holliday

It may be unfair to have enormous expectations on a rookie, especially one that’s only 20 years of age. But after the minor league season that Jackson Holliday had in 2023, followed by a 2024 Spring Training where he hit .311 with a .954 OPS, Holliday had the prospect prowess that would lead anyone to anticipate big things from him in majors this season.

It’s safe to say Holliday hasn’t achieved this. He opened his major league career with an extremely disappointing 10-game stint in April, where he hit just .059 with a .170 OPS.

And while it’s hard to be as bad as what Holliday was in his first taste of big league ball, he still is far from the budding star that we expected him to be. He has shown flashes of what he could be, but consistency has eluded him up to this point in his rookie season.

In 151 plate appearances since being recalled on July 31, Holliday is hitting just .200 with a .606 OPS, which only makes him a 0.3 fWAR and 72 wRC+ player in this span.

Baltimore’s Starting Pitching Looks Increasingly Volatile

Throughout Baltimore’s three straight years of success now, their starting pitching has been the aspect of their game that is most frequently criticized.

When the Orioles acquired Burnes to pair with Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in the 2023 AL Cy Young voting, former number one option John Means (who was slated to return in the early going) and potential future ace Grayson Rodriguez.

And to no real fault of Baltimore, injuries struck as Bradish opened the season on the IL, came back and pitched eight games, and then went down with a season ending UCL injury. Means also suffered the wrath of the repeat injury bug as he came back from the IL for just four games before hitting the shelf for the season for the third consecutive year.

Despite these huge losses, Baltimore’s rotation was actually performing well. The O’s ranked within the Top 10 in ERA (T-6th at 3.63), WHIP (T-9th at 1.21) and AVG against (10th at .236).

But as the season went on, the Orioles struggles in their rotation began.

Since the All-Star break Baltimore ranks 15th in ERA (4.19), 21st in WHIP (1.34) and 23rd in AVG against (.260).

And there are several key starting arms that have played into the rotation’s decline.

Corbin Burnes

Burnes wasted no time making his mark in Baltimore as he fully embodied the ace they traded for in the first half of the season.

He was given the ball for the American League to start this year’s midsummer classic after he posted a 2.43 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and a .221 AVG against.

But since then Burnes has looked very hittable. He’s gone from a first half mid-2.00’s ERA to a second half low-4.00’s mark (4.24). His WHIP in the second half (1.26) sits 22 points higher than his pre All-Star break total. And hitters are hitting .246 off of him since the season resumed on July 19, 25 points higher than his first half total.

Grayson Rodriguez

The future of the Orioles rotation started to look the part in the first half of 2024 with Rodriguez. He took an 11-4 record into the second half, along with a sub-4.00 ERA (3.88).

But Rodriguez has struggled to stay healthy, pitching 17.0 across just three starts before hitting the IL on Aug. 7.

It was unfortunate for the young righty, after a 2023 season where he bounced up and down between the big leagues and Triple-A Norfolk, he looked to be finding his footing in his second season. In his minimal second half appearances, he followed up his first-half 3.88 ERA with an impressive 3.71.

Now the question is, will they have him back and ready to go come postseason time?

The minor league season is quickly coming to a close meaning traditional rehab assignments may no longer be an option for Rodriguez and the Orioles.

Albert Suárez

Albert Suárez has been one of the more feel good stories of the 2024 MLB season. The 34-year-old pitched his first big league innings this year since 2017 when he pitched for the San Francisco Giants.

And in the first half Suárez dazzled in his 12 outings posting a 3.13 ERA across 60.1 innings of work.

But the second half wasn’t as kind to Suárez as the first half of the 2024 campaign was. Like Burnes, Suárez has looked more hittable to his opponents, driving his post All-Star break ERA up to 4.26.

Cade Povich

The Orioles have given rookie Cade Povich a chance in the big leagues as they look for answers to their injury-ridden and underperforming second half rotation.

But the first-year lefty has had his fair share of issues on the mound over the past few months. In seven second half starts Povich has thrown to a 5.25 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP and a .287 AVG against.

The good thing for the Orioles is that between Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and hopefully Grayson Rodriguez, their postseason rotation should be covered. The Orioles will need Burnes and Eflin to carry them if they want to make a deep run come October.

The O’s Bullpen Has Faltered Down the Stretch

The Orioles were behind the eight-ball from the get-go when it came to there relief corps, after Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery last fall.

But between Yennier Cano and Craig Kimbrel, the Orioles hoped they had enough to get by late in games, and early on that was the case.

While they ranked 14th in ERA at 3.83 they were amongst the top MLB bullpens in fWAR (ninth at 2.8), WHIP (sixth at 1.18) AVG against (tied for fourth at .214).

But like their offense and starting rotation, the Orioles bullpen also fell victim to a poor second half.

Since the break the Orioles have ranked tied for 17th in fWAR (1.0), 24th in ERA (4.72), tied for 14th in WHIP (1.25) and 19th in AVG against (.236).

And of the relief options at their disposal, over half of them feature a second half ERA above 4.00 and over half of them sport an AVG against above .250. And two of them no longer have spots on the roster in Craig Kimbrel and Cole Irvin.

Like their offense and rotation, there are a few players that have been significant contributors to their problems in the ‘pen.

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel had one of MLB’s most significant fall-offs this season.

As the Orioles primary closer in the first half, Kimbrel posted a 2.80 ERA, with a 0.96 WHIP and a .149 AVG against.

But since the All-Star break Kimbrel has posted a horrendous 10.59 ERA, 2.18 WHIP and .293 AVG against and lost not only his closing role in the process but eventually his spot on the Orioles roster altogether, after being DFA’d on Sept. 18.

That being said, it’s hard to be worse than Kimbrel in the second half, so the Orioles may very well have done themselves a favor by cutting ties with Kimbrel and allowing his spot in the bullpen to be replaced by someone with a better shot at performing well.

Gregory Soto

When the Orioles brought Gregory Soto in from the Phillies during trade deadline season they had hoped for a reliable late-inning arm with past postseason experience.

Instead Soto has struggled to fool opposing hitters at all. Since becoming an Oriole he’s only posted a 6.28 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP and a .328 AVG against.

So between Soto struggling and Kimbrel getting cut suddenly, pressure is on for the likes of Cano and new closer Seranthony Domínguez.

So Where Does This Leave Baltimore Ahead of The Postseason?

I can’t say that it’s all bad in Baltimore at the moment. They still could very well eclipse the 90 win plateau this season.

Even with disappointing performances across the board, there are some other names within each facet of their game that have stepped up in the second half.

Offensively, one of their underrated stars in Anthony Santander has managed to add 17 more HRs to his 2024 tally in the second half, bringing him up to 41, while sporting a 132 wRC+ since the all-star break.

And while only two hitters held a wRC+ of 130 or higher in the first half (Henderson and Westburg), five hitters with at least 150 plate appearances since the break have reached that mark in the second half (Henderson again, Santander, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías).

In their rotation, while Burnes and company may be struggling, Zach Eflin has been terrific with the Orioles in his first few weeks with them team. He sports a 2.22 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a .237 AVG against in 44.2 innings across seven starts.

And Dean Kremer has been a reliable arm amidst the chaos as well. In 61.0 second half innings, Kremer has posted a sub-4.00 ERA (3.98) with a .235 AVG against.

From a relief standpoint, Domínguez has done a solid job holding down the closing role with a 3.26 ERA as an Oriole. And Cano continues to be the Cano we’ve come to expect, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA (2.76) since July 19.

But at the end of the day they’ve just seemed to patch the wounds they’ve incurred.

While young up-and-coming players like Cowser and complementary lineup pieces like Mullins and Urías have done their part to keep the lineup afloat, when your top stars (Henderson and Rutschman) aren’t performing at the same rate in the second half as they did in the first, it’s hard for a lineup to gain that spark again.

How can complementary pieces complement a lineup, if the top stars aren’t setting the table for them to play their role?

Despite Eflin and Kremer efforts, replicating the talent that Burnes has seemed to lost hold of a bit in recent weeks is a near impossible task.

Nor can the duo match the upside and potential of Grayson Rodriguez either.

And with so many other postseason contenders, like the Guardians or the Phillies, having such deep bullpens with countless reliable arms to close a game out, the Orioles and their currently reliable one-two punch in the backend between Domínguez and Cano seems insignificant in comparison.

The Orioles may still be a postseason caliber team, but there’s a big difference between making the postseason and being a team that can go all the way.

And the Orioles seem a far cry away from that top contender we saw earlier this year and came to expect them to be, as they now ungracefully stumble their way to the finish line looking as vulnerable as ever with October just around the corner.

Last year, the Texas Rangers limped into the playoffs after losing the division at the 11th hour to the Houston Astros. Once the lights got bright in October though, the Rangers got great starting pitching from Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, and their star players came alive in their starting lineup.

The Orioles have a one-two punch in Burnes and Eflin, and plenty of star players who could get hot in a short series. The question really is if this team has another hot streak in them, or if this just isn’t the year for this young core to make noise in October.