Which NL Wild Card Contender Has the Toughest Road in September?

We’re in the home stretch of the 2024 MLB regular season, and the National League Wild Card race is shaping up to be a fight to the finish.

The Wild Card battle in the National League currently features some of the hottest teams in baseball. Some of these teams are not only fighting for a Wild Card position but hoping to make a push to close the gap at the top of their division standings.

And still, there are a handful of teams on the outside looking in that have a shot at sneaking into the postseason with some strong play in September.

Let’s dive into the current landscape of the NL playoff picture and take a look at which Wild Card contenders have the toughest road ahead of them to close out the final month of the regular season.

Stats and standings taken prior to play on September 4.

The Current Contenders in the NL Wild Card Race

As a reminder, there will be three Wild Card teams in each league. The top Wild Card team will earn the No. 4 seed and host the No. 5 seed, the second Wild Card team, in a three-game set.

The final Wild Card team will earn the No. 6 seed and visit the No. 3 seed, the division winner with the worst record, in a three-game series.

Our Leo Morgenstern put together a comprehensive guide to the MLB playoff tiebreakers, highlighting which teams have the advantage in the event of a tie in the standings at the end of the regular season.

Given how tight this postseason race has become, these tiebreakers could certainly play a factor come season’s end.

NL WC Contenders

Interestingly enough, last season marked the second consecutive postseason in which the No. 6 seed in the NL made a run to the World Series. In 2022, the Philadelphia Phillies accomplished that feat, eventually losing to the Houston Astros in the World Series.

In 2023, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks who snuck in as the final Wild Card team and went on a historic playoff run to meet up with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers themselves were crowned World Series champions as the No. 5 seed in the American League.

It just goes to show that sometimes, in order to make a deep postseason run, a team just needs to get hot at the right time.

It’s often the Wild Card teams who are playing the most meaningful baseball down to the last game of the season as they fight to keep their season alive. Perhaps that’s exactly what a team needs to catch fire heading into October.

Arizona Diamondbacks (78-61)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of, if not the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break.

Since the Midsummer Classic, they lead Major League Baseball in wRC+ (135), OPS (.857), batting average (.283), and wOBA (.366). They also have the most homers in baseball over that stretch with 73, and their 275 runs scored are 53 more than the next closest team.

Heading into the month of July, the Diamondbacks were two games below .500 and three games out of the playoff picture entirely. Since then, they’ve gone 37-18 and now sit 17 games above .500.

Not only was Ketel Marte playing like an MVP candidate before hitting the shelf a few weeks back with an ankle sprain, but Corbin Carroll’s turnaround this season has been essential to the Diamondbacks’ ascension.

Carroll is the engine that makes this offense go, and he’s looked more like the version of himself that won the NL Rookie of the Year a season ago.

He’s slashing .283/.345/.658 for an OPS over a thousand to go with a 168 wRC+ in the second half of the season, and he already has an fWAR of 2.3 in his last 41 games. He had an fWAR of just 0.9 in his 94 games prior.

Arizona’s position players have a combined fWAR of 13.1 since the All-Star break, which is the most in all of baseball by a good margin. That is in addition to a pitching staff that ranks fourth in baseball in fWAR (4.0) and FIP (3.69) over that stretch as well.

The Diamondbacks proved last year that they can be one of the most dangerous teams in the sport when things are clicking, and they’re building momentum at the right time.

The Diamondbacks’ hot stretch will be tested in the month of September, however. Of their remaining 23 games, just 10 of them come against teams who are below .500, and five of those games are against their division rival San Francisco Giants.

They still have seven games remaining against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, and a three-game road series against the division-leading Astros.

More significantly, however, they end the regular season with an enormous home series against the San Diego Padres, who sit just a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card standings.

There’s a lot of baseball left to play, but the top Wild Card seed could come down to that final series in Arizona. It won’t be a cakewalk to the postseason for the Snakes, but they’ll be looking to ride their scorching offense into October.

San Diego Padres (79-61)

The only team that has been hotter than the Arizona Diamondbacks since the All-Star break is the San Diego Padres, who sport baseball’s best record in the second half at 29-12.

They’ve been one of the most well-rounded teams over the past few months of play, and it’s looking as if the Padres could be the most dangerous Wild Card team if they can finish the season on a high note.

Sporting the third-best OPS (.777) and wRC+ (120) in baseball since the All-Star break, San Diego’s lineup is as lethal and deep as any. They’re striking out at the lowest rate in baseball over that stretch (16%) while hitting for the second-highest average as well (.273).

Moreover, it hasn’t just been their offense that has helped the Padres win games in the second half. Their pitching staff has been excellent since the All-Star break, sporting the second-highest fWAR over that stretch (7.0).

Consistent contributions from both the starting rotation and the bullpen have led to such success. Since July 16th, San Diego’s bullpen has the fifth-best ERA (3.06) to go with the best FIP in baseball (2.74) by over half a run.

The Padres’ starting rotation went from a 4.16 ERA and a 3.97 FIP in the first half to a 3.92 ERA and a 3.75 FIP in the second half, and they’re only getting stronger with the return of Yu Darvish.

This is a very balanced team that appears poised to make some noise in the postseason, and their play of late is a big reason why the Padres currently hold the top Wild Card seed.

The next two weeks will be pivotal for the Padres. They need to take advantage of their winnable games coming up, because it gets a lot tougher for them in the second half of September.

San Diego ends the regular season with a six-game gauntlet of a road trip, first visiting the first-place Dodgers and then ending the regular season with a three-game series at Chase Field in the aforementioned showdown with the Diamondbacks.

The Padres have a more favorable month of September in terms of strength of schedule compared to the Diamondbacks, and that could be huge as they strive to build a lead in the standings before the two face off to end the season.

Atlanta Braves (75-63)

It’s been one blow after another for the Atlanta Braves this season.

Their lineup has taken a hit thus far, most notably with Ronald Acuña Jr. tearing his ACL earlier in the season, and most recently when they lost Austin Riley to a fractured hand.

Yet, despite their offense taking a step back this season, the Braves still find themselves in the Wild Card picture with less than a month to play in the regular season.

This lineup has been far from the prolific offense we saw a season ago, sporting an OPS of .719 and a below-average wRC+ of 98. However, it’s been Atlanta’s pitching staff that has done an excellent job of keeping them in the hunt this season.

The Braves’ pitching staff as a whole leads MLB in fWAR this season (20.2). They have the highest K/9 in baseball at 9.57, the second-best staff ERA (3.59), and the best FIP in the majors (3.50).

Headlined by the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young award in Chris Sale, the Braves’ rotation has been excellent at keeping them in games. Atlanta’s starters went from a K-BB% of 16.1% in the first half to 22.0% since the All-Star break, which leads all of baseball.

While it’s been a disappointing season offensively, Atlanta’s lineup can still be dangerous when they’re on top of their game. There’s a chance Riley returns to the lineup if the Braves make a deep postseason run, and Ozzie Albies is expected back from the injured list before the end of the regular season.

This team can still be one of baseball’s most dangerous clubs if they catch fire, and their remaining schedule is setting them up nicely to do so.

Frankly, the Braves have the easiest remaining schedule of all the NL Wild Card contenders.

Of their 24 remaining games, just 10 of those come against teams above .500, and all those games will be at home in Atlanta.

They have just eight road games left, which is the fewest among these potential Wild Card teams, and all of those games will come against teams who are out of the playoff picture.

The Braves have managed to hang around this season despite facing plenty of adversity. If their offense can take just a slight step forward and produce something that resembles the level of play fans have grown accustomed to seeing, there may be no team better suited to go on a run in September.

New York Mets (75-64)

The New York Mets have really turned things around since their slow start to the season. After going 9-19 in the month of May, the Mets have gone 51-31 since June 1st, which is the third-best record in baseball over that stretch.

The Mets now sit 11 games above .500 and are in the midst of a six-game winning streak, which is the longest current winning streak in MLB. They trail Atlanta by just a half-game, currently putting them on the outside looking in.

They’ve been a well-rounded and consistent offense to this point in the season, posting the seventh-best wRC+ (110) to go with an OPS of .740. As a team, they’re in the top six in hard-hit rate (40.9%) and barrel rate (9.0%), while ranking eighth and seventh in MLB in slugging percentage (.420) and isolated power (.171), respectively.

However, while their steady offense has been a major contributor to their success this year, it’s been the turnaround of the pitching staff in the second half of the season that has helped them climb up the National League standings.

Prior to the All-Star break, the Mets were 22nd in staff ERA (4.23) and 23rd in FIP (4.30). In the second half, they’re pitching to the sixth-best ERA in baseball (3.59), and they dropped their FIP to 4.03.

New York’s relievers cut their collective ERA by nearly a run in the second half, and their starting rotation went from being in the bottom third in terms of ERA (4.25) and FIP (4.43) to being one of the best in baseball since July 16th. They have posted the fifth-best ERA (3.72) in MLB while dropping their FIP to 4.18 since that date.

Leading the way in the rotation is David Peterson, who is pitching to a 2.47 ERA across his last nine starts, and Sean Manaea, who has been a stellar offseason signing, posting a 3.35 ERA to go with a WHIP of just 1.12 in his 27 starts.

The Mets will be competing down to the final game of the regular season with the hopes of clinching a playoff berth, but the schedule isn’t doing them any favors in the month of September.

Of their 23 remaining games, only nine of those come against teams below .500. What’s more, they have perhaps the toughest final three series of any team in baseball to close out the regular season.

The Mets will host the first-place Phillies for a four-game showdown in their final series at Citi Field. After that, they close out the year with a six-game road trip, going to Atlanta for three games before finishing things off with a three-game series at American Family Field against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.

The Mets have proven that they’re deserving of a playoff bid, but they’ll be tested to an even greater degree in the coming weeks.

While they’re only a half-game behind Atlanta, the Mets have the fourth-best odds to clinch a Wild Card spot in the National League at 37.2%, according to FanGraphs, which is significantly lower than the Braves’ odds, which sit at 73.7%.

Chicago Cubs (71-68)

It’s been a rocky season for the Chicago Cubs to this point, and of the NL Wild Card contenders, they have the biggest hurdle to climb in order to reach the postseason. They currently sit 4.5 games back from a playoff spot.

Offensively, it’s been a disappointing season in the Windy City, as the Cubs sport a wRC+ of 100 to go with an OPS+ of just 98. They’ve seen an uptick in offensive output in the second half of the season, going from a .695 OPS prior to the All-Star break to a .740 OPS since, but it’s still a lineup that has underachieved this season relative to expectations.

With that being said, they are coming off a month of August in which they went 18-8 while sporting the fourth-best wRC+ (120), third-best wOBA (.340), and second-best OPS (.792) in the majors. They’re going to need the offense to stay hot in the coming weeks in order to make a big climb up the National League standings.

A major turnaround in bullpen performance has been key for the Cubs in the second half. Sporting a 4.01 ERA and a 4.04 FIP prior to the All-Star break, Chicago’s relievers are pitching to a 3.34 ERA to go with the fifth-best FIP in baseball (3.47) since July 16th.

The Cubs don’t excel in any one area, but if their starting rotation can continue to keep them in ballgames while their bullpen maintains this recent level of performance, the Cubs have the talent to make some noise in September.

The Cubs have plenty of winnable games in the final month of the regular season, and they will need to take advantage of those to pass the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.

After the Cubs host the Yankees this upcoming weekend, they have just two series against teams over .500 for the remainder of the season. Aside from their two road series against the Dodgers and the Phillies, the Cubs have a lot of games against non-playoff teams, and the vast majority of those will be played at Wrigley Field.

In order for the Cubs to prove that they belong in the postseason conversation, they will need to take care of business against inferior opponents in the coming weeks.

A lot will need to go the Cubs’ way in order for them to work their way into the playoff picture (as is highlighted by FanGraphs giving them just a 1.8% chance to make the playoffs), but their remaining schedule is paving the way for a strong finish.

Which NL Wild Card Contender Has the Toughest Road Ahead?

It’s going to be a grind for each of these teams, but no team has a tougher road in September than the New York Mets.

The odds are stacked against them, as they are not only currently on the outside looking in, but they have the most away games remaining among any of the Wild Card contenders in the NL.

Likewise, the Mets have the highest combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents at .532.

A lot can unfold between now and the final series of the season, but there may be no series that is more important than when the Mets visit the Braves in the second-to-last series of the season. It’s looking as if that series will have major implications as to who will be playing in October and who will be going home.

In a year in which it truly feels as if the National League is up for grabs, it seems as if any team has a shot if they can catch fire at the right time. An argument can be made for each of these NL Wild Card contenders, and there is plenty of exciting baseball on the horizon in the final weeks of the regular season.