Will The Royals Losing Streak Cost Them Their Spot in the Postseason?

On Aug. 27, the Kansas City Royals won their third game of a four-game series on the road against the AL Central leading Cleveland Guardians. This meant they erased what once looked to be an insurmountable lead for the Guardians and put the Royals in a tie for the division lead.

At that point the Royals were one of the hottest teams in baseball since the season resumed after the All-Star break as they had gone 23-13 in that span.

Since then, they’ve gone 8-16 and not only lost their chance at taking the Central, but after a seven-game losing skid, their spot in the 2024 postseason entirely is now in jeopardy.

This not only has to do with the awful baseball Kansas City has been playing of late, but also the unbelievable stretch the Detroit Tigers have been on, along with the fantastic month of September the Seattle Mariners have had.

The Royals now face pressure on three fronts, with the Tigers, Mariners and the continued pressure from the Minnesota Twins, as it’s suddenly a four-horse race for the final two AL Wild Card spots.

Worst Case Scenario for the Royals Offense

As I’ve already touched on, the Royals are 8-16 since Aug. 27 and statistically speaking they’ve been one of the worst teams in all of baseball in that span.

From Aug. 28 onwards the Royals are one of just four major league teams to post a negative fWAR, as they sit tied for 28th in the league at -0.2, according to FanGraphs.

And what’s even more staggering is the fact that no team has posted a lower wRC+ in all of baseball than Kansas City in this timeframe, as they sport a 64 wRC+. For context, this ranks four runs lower than the 120-loss Chicago White Sox (68 wRC+).

The Royals also sit dead last in the league in AVG (.206), OPS (.590), tied for last in SLG (.317), 29th in OBP (.273), 29th in RBI (66) and tied for 28th in HR (17).

And looking at the current seven-game losing streak they’re on in a vacuum, the Royals inabilities as an offense have been magnified even more.

They continue to sit dead last in wRC+ at 58 during this streak, 10 runs lower than the White Sox.

They are also sporting the third worst fWAR in the league (-0.3), the second worst AVG (.202), and a league worst .554 OPS, which is 35 points lower than the next closest team.

Kansas City’s Pitching Hasn’t Been All Bad

The Starting Rotation

In their 8-16 span, the Royals have still continued to have one of the better starting rotations in baseball.

They hold the second-highest starter fWAR at 3.0, trailing only the New York Mets in this span. They also find themselves fourth in the league in FIP at 3.32.

And overall they’ve remained in the top half of the league across mutliple key metrics. Their staff sits 14th in ERA (3.59), tied for 10th in WHIP (1.17) and 13th in AVG against (.234).

While it may not be to the standard of the league best fWAR, and top five standing in ERA, FIP and WHIP that they’ve posted in 2024 as whole, it’s not the primary indicator of why they’ve gone 8-16.

However during the current seven-game slide, the starting rotation has left a lot to be desired.

As a staff they’ve fallen in the bottom third of the league in fWAR (T-20th at 0.4), ERA (23rd at 5.30), FIP (23rd at 4.64), WHIP (T-22nd at 1.45) and AVG against (23rd at .262), during this current losing streak.

The Bullpen

For almost the entirety of 2024, the bullpen has been the one aspect of the Royals that has drawn the most criticism.

But after the acquisition of Lucas Erceg at the deadline, and his opening stretch of five appearances for Kansas City before allowing a hit and 11 appearances before allowing an earned run, some of the questions surrounding their ‘pen seemed to be answered with a capable anchor at the helm.

And even since their plummet from the co-share of the AL Central lead began on Aug. 28, their bullpen has been decent. They sit 18th in ERA at 4.33, tied for 11th in WHIP at 1.20 and tied for 14th in AVG against at .230.

Kansas City’s reliever also sit fifth in league in fWAR at 1.3 and second in the league in FIP at 2.88 in this span.

And somehow in this seven game stretch, the Royals bullpen has been one of the better groups in the league during their current losing streak.

They sit atop MLB in FIP at 1.84 and rank tied for third in MLB in fWAR at 0.7, tied for sixth in ERA at 2.45, tied for second in WHIP at 0.94 and fourth in AVG against at .174.

Their bullpen continues to be an asset in the second half, as poorer starting pitching over the past month and most importantly a putrid offense over the past few weeks have been the leading cause of the Royals freefall in the postseason picture.

What Does the Final Week of the 2024 Regular Season Have In Store?

Looking back in the past won’t do the Royals any good, as what’s done is done. After all, they still sit tied with the Detroit Tigers for the second and third AL Wild Card positions heading into play on Sept. 24.

The focus now has to be on salvaging the season they have left and finishing strong across their final six games and let the chips fall as they may.

Kansas City’s Path

The Royals have a favorable start to get back on track as they head to Washington for three-game set with the Nationals starting on Tuesday.

The Nats have also been bad of late as they sit with an 8-12 record in the month of September.

The Royals will have favorable pitching matchups in this series facing Mitchell Parker on Tuesday, DJ Herz on Wednesday and Patrick Corbin on Thursday, all of whom are coming off starts where they allowed five or more earned runs.

And as it stands right now, as per FanGraphs Roster Resource, the Royals slated to throw out All-Star Cole Ragans on Tuesday and one of the leagues biggest overachievers in 2024 Michael Wacha on Thursday, with Wednesday’s starter yet to be named, though if their regular cycle through the rotation continues it would be Alec Marsh.

The tricky bit for Kansas City comes in the final series of the season as they remain on the road to square off against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves are in a postseason battle of their own at the moment as they sit two games back of both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets for an NL Wild Card spot.

The Royals will have to hope for the Mets to do them a favor in the three game slate that they embark on in Atlanta on Tuesday and that Arizona wins their series against the Giants to push the Braves out of postseason contention by the time the weekend roles around, leaving less stakes on their upcoming series.

Regardless of what postseason state the Braves and are in by this weekend, the Royals are set to put their best foot forward from a starting pitching standpoint to try and solve Atlanta’s recently revitalized offense.

As it stands now, if neither team alters their rotation order, Brady Singer would get the ball against Charlie Morton on Friday, Seth Lugo would take the bump against Grant Holmes on Saturday and then Ragans would start game 162 against seemingly either Max Fried or Spencer Schwellenbach.

Starting pitching will be a mute point though unless that offense can climb out of the rut they’re currently stuck in.

Strength of Remaining Schedules

Out of all four teams in the mix for the final two wild card spots, the Royals actually have the most difficult schedule, as per Tankathon’s strength of schedule metrics.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have been on of the league’s best teams since Sept. 6. This comes after they last dropped a series when they went 1-2 on the road against San Diego. Since they’ve gone 11-4.

And with a one game lead over the Twins and 2.0 game lead over the Tigers, all they have to do is take care of business at home against the disappointing 78-78 Tampa Bay Rays and then the historically bad 36-120 Chicago White Sox.

It’s safe to say the ball is firmly in the Tigers’ court when it comes to not only locking up a wild card berth, but locking up the second wild card spot, meaning they’d avoid having to head to Houston to face the Astros in a best-of-three series and instead would most likely head to Baltimore to square off against the struggling Orioles.

Minnesota Twins

Next up are the Twins, who have the second easiest slate of games as their final opponents have a .458 average winning percentage. This is in large part due to the three game series they open on Tuesday at home against the 57-99 Miami Marlins.

And a home series against one of baseball’s worst organizations might be exactly what the Twins need, as like the Royals they’ve also been in poor form of late. They sit at 8-13 so far this month and 3-7 in their last 10 games.

They then head host Baltimore to end the season and despite their 86-70 record and firm grasp on the top wild card spot and home field advantage in the wild card round, the Orioles have endured a rough second half of the season and are more vulnerable then their record initially indicates.

Seattle Mariners

A strong month of September has found the Mariners right back in the mix, going 12-6 since Sept. 4.

And while not by much, the Mariners still have a slightly easier remining schedule than the Royals. Their .487 average opponent winning percentage trumps Kansas City’s by seven points (.494).

They have it rough though to start the week on the road against the Houston Astros, who are on the verge but are still looking to lock down the AL West and thus home field advantage in an AL Wild Card series.

But then they come back home to take on the Oakland Athletics, who despite a more potent offense than usual with the likes of Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler shining of late, still sit just 67-89 and 3-7 in their last 10.

It’s Not Time to Jump Ship Yet

The Royals might have one of the league’s worst offenses at the moment and the toughest schedule of the four teams vying for the final two AL Wild Card spots, but they can’t dwell on that in here in the final stages of the regular season.

Instead all they can do is look forward and try to find the silver linings in all the current chaos.

Despite the extremely disappointing offensive showing of late, they still have one of the league’s best spark plugs in that lineup in potential AL MVP Bobby Witt Jr., alongside heavy hitters like Salvador Perez and craftier veterans like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel and Paul DeJong.

And while their starting pitching may be struggling a bit during their seven game skid, they’ve been one of MLB’s better rotations throughout the season. And their bullpen has been one of the few aspects that hasn’t fallen off of late.

Even though they have the toughest remaining schedule between them, the Tigers, the Twins and the Mariners, they still have one of the easier schedules league-wide at 19th overall in terms of difficulty.

While it may look like the deck is stacked against them the Royals are still a game up in the Wild Card race with six left to play meaning they still control their own destiny, even though it hasn’t seemed like it of late.

It’s now a matter of whether they can lock in and regain the form that’s made them one of the American League’s better teams in 2024 in the final week.