Atlanta Braves Are the Longshot Bet to Win the World Series

Before you start reading, the brain needs to be re-wired.

A long shot is “a venture or guess that has only the slightest chance of succeeding or being accurate.” This World Series future fits that description, as they are on the outside looking in for the playoff picture.

I’m more bullish than the market is on them making the playoffs, providing us plenty of value on the World Series odds. We are using Fangraphs projections and PECOTA to find value.

Before we begin, let’s look at our portfolio of World Series futures. We have taken a firm stance on two teams: the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros.

I “foolishly” bet the Astros to win the World Series at +850 when I thought they would sign Blake Snell. They didn’t, but they are still near this price to win it.

The Yankees should be the favorites in the American League, but the Astros are a close second. Truthfully, if I were looking at the market now for the Astros, I’d stay away at the current price. Projections have their implied odds at +1100, so you would need +1200 or better to bet them again.

I nailed the Padres’ selection (based on line movement).

We bet the Padres to win the NL Pennant at +2500 and the World Series at +5000. The Padres are now +1200 to win the World Series and +600 to win the NL Pennant.

The Padres are a force now that Musgrove, Darvis, and Tatis Jr have returned. Based on projections, the Padres have an 8.5% chance of winning the World Series, meaning the implied line should be +1075. +1200 is still within range of a bet on BetMGM if you want to jump on the Padres.

I’m adding a new team to this portfolio. This team is not guaranteed to make the playoffs, which has made this line too big not to bet. Here’s what spawned the idea.

Why the Braves Will Make the Playoffs

I got in the lab this morning as I do every day, and I gravitated towards Braves ML against the Mets and Giants ML against the Diamondbacks. I didn’t love those prices enough to bet them today, but it got me thinking. If both of those things do come true, the Braves are a half-game behind Arizona, and they control their destiny against the Mets.

They have Chris Sale and Max Fried in the next two games of the series. Since 1997, the Mets are 5-21 in Atlanta after September 1st, when both teams are over .500. If I were a Mets fan, I’d be nervous.

However, there is a world in which the Mets and Braves make the playoffs, and it’s Arizona on the outside looking in.

The Diamondbacks are not playing that well at the moment. After they finish these two games against the Giants, they are looking at a three-game set against the Padres, who are still alive to win the NL West.

The Braves play the Royals in their final series of the year, a team in free fall right now.

The Mets play the Brewers, who may not be motivated to win to increase their playoff standing but certainly don’t want to end the regular season on a sour note. They are also an excellent team, so I am not giving the Mets a free pass on that one.

Projection systems are having trouble pricing the Braves. The high-end playoff projection from BatX is 53%, and the low-end projection from PECOTA is 38.7%. The implied odds for the Braves to make the playoffs could be anywhere from +160 to -115.

The BatX is my favorite projection system, but I use them all. Based on these, there is no real value in betting them to make the playoffs, but there is to win the World Series.

The Braves have a top-three pitching staff in Major League Baseball. They have the best pitcher in baseball this year, Chris Sale. Max Fried pitched to a 2.88 ERA in September, and Spencer Schwellenbach pitched to a 3.05 ERA in the second half through 65 innings.

Reynaldo Lopez (2.03 ERA) is supposed to be back from the IL on September 26th, but I doubt he will make that return. He should be ready for the playoffs if they make it. That’s as good of a rotation as you’ll see in the playoffs.

The Braves bullpen has the league’s third-best ERA, the second-best FIP, and the best xFIP and K-BB ratio. An actual argument can be made that they have the best bullpen in baseball. I still give the edge to the Guardians, but the Braves are second for me. The question for the Braves is whether they can hit.

The Braves first four hitters in the lineup—Michael Harris, Jorge Soler, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson—have a combined .894 OPS in September, the second-best mark of any team’s first four hitters in that stretch.

The lineup gets even better now that Ozzie Albies is back. Austin Riley just got his cast off, and while there is hope he returns in the playoffs, I’m making this pick assuming we don’t see him at all.

The offense ranked ninth in wRC+ in September, with the third-highest hard hit rate. They are heating up at the perfect time.

World Series Odds for the Atlanta Braves

The high-end projections for Atlanta give them a 5% chance of winning the World Series, while the low end is 1%. The implied odds could be anywhere from +1900 to +10000.

The low-end clearly factors in a much lower chance of making the playoffs, while the high-end gives them better than a 50/50 shot of making it. I lean toward the high-end projections, which have a more manageable path than the market is leading on.

+3500 implies a 2.78% chance of winning the World Series. That’s a low-end projection, even lower than projection systems like ATC or the standard Fangraphs projection, with the Braves at a 45% chance of making the playoffs.

The medium to low-end projections have the Braves at 3.4% (implied odds of +2800). So, even if you think there is only a 45% chance they make the playoffs, the World Series odds are off by a decent margin. If you lean towards 50/50 for them to make the playoffs, the World Series odds are WAY off.

The Braves have lost Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. and will likely be without Austin Riley as well. The Braves won the World Series in 2021 without Strider or Acuna and have a shot at winning it again.

Remember, this is a long shot, as they are still 1.5 games out of the playoffs as we sit here today. If they make the playoffs, this line will be cut in half. I also love to back a team like this with playoff experience, a World Series-winning manager, and heating up at the opportune time.

I placed a quarter unit on the Braves to win the World Series at +3500.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.