MLB Playoffs: Explaining All the Tiebreaker Scenarios
With two games remaining in the 2024 regular season – a doubleheader today at Truist Park – only one tiebreaker still matters.
Update, Sept. 30: You can ignore everything else you’ve learned about tiebreakers. With two games remaining in the 2024 regular season – a doubleheader today at Truist Park – only one tiebreaker is still on the line. Three teams are left fighting for a postseason position: the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks’ regular season is done. They are 89-73. Their fate is out of their hands.
The Mets and Braves have two games left to play – against each other. They’re both 88-72.
If either team sweeps the doubleheader, tiebreakers won’t come into play. The winner of the doubleheader will be 90-72. They’ll finish as the No. 5 seed in the NL, one game ahead of the D-backs.
In this scenario, the team that loses the doubleheader will finish 88-74. They will be eliminated.
Alternatively, if the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, they’ll both finish with an 89-73 record, creating a three-way tie between New York, Atlanta, and Arizona.
In that case, the Braves will earn the No. 5 seed because they will have won the season series against both the Mets and the D-backs. The Mets will earn the No. 6 seed because they won the season series against the Diamondbacks but not the Braves.
The Diamondbacks, who lost the season series to both the Mets and Braves, would be eliminated.
Current Head-to-Head Records of the Braves, Mets, and D-backs
| TEAM | vs. ARI | vs. ATL | vs. NYM |
| ARI | — | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| ATL | 5-2 | — | 6-5 |
| NYM | 4-3 | 5-6 |
So, let’s recap. The Braves will be the No. 5 seed unless they lose both games of today’s doubleheader. There is no scenario in which the Braves are the No. 6 seed. The only way they will be eliminated is if they lose both of their two remaining games.
The Mets will be the No. 5 seed if they sweep the doubleheader. They’ll be the No. 6 seed if they split the doubleheader. If they lose both games today, they’re going home.
Finally, the Diamondbacks will have to watch with bated breath and cross their fingers for a series sweep. If either the Braves or Mets sweep the doubleheader, the D-backs will be the No. 6 seed in the 2024 postseason. Otherwise, the reigning NL champs are done.
The Braves are in the best position. They have home-field advantage for the doubleheader, and they were already in Atlanta so they didn’t need to travel.
The Mets had to travel from Milwaukee yesterday, and they’ll have to travel again if they make the playoffs – back to Milwaukee if they split the series and all the way across the country to San Diego if they sweep.
The Diamondbacks have the benefit of a day off today, but they are still in the worst position. A doubleheader split between the Mets and Braves (which would spell doom for the D-backs) is the most likely outcome, especially since the team that wins the first game will have very little incentive to win the second game.
Whoever wins that first game is guaranteed a spot in the postseason. Surely, that means they’ll want to rest as many of their pitchers (and starting position players) as possible. That’s bad news for the D-backs.
The Diamondbacks Could Be Victims of the Tiebreaker Rules
If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader today, it will mark the first time that the new tiebreaker rules have kept a team out of the postseason entirely.
The Braves won the NL East in 2022 on a tiebreaker, but the Mets still earned a Wild Card berth. The Astros won the AL West in 2023 on a tiebreaker, but the Rangers still earned a Wild Card berth.
Just this year, the Royals beat out the Tigers for the No. 5 seed thanks to a tiebreaker, but Detroit still made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
However, if the 2024 Diamondbacks lose out on a Wild Card spot on a tiebreaker, there will be no consolation prize to fall back on.
Original post: When Major League Baseball introduced the third Wild Card team to the postseason picture in 2022, the league also introduced a whole new set of tiebreaker rules. Tiebreaker games are no more; instead, every tie can be decided by the results of the regular season schedule.
The tiebreaker rules are plentiful, but they really aren’t that complicated. If two teams are tied at the end of the season, the team with the better head-to-head record comes out on top. If the two clubs split the season series, then the team with a better record within its own division is the winner.
There are further tiebreaking procedures if head-to-head and intradivision records aren’t enough, but it’s unlikely it ever comes to that – we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
While the rules themselves aren’t overly complicated, it can be difficult to keep track of all the individual tiebreakers, especially with so many close races in both the American and National Leagues.
With that in mind, you can use this tracker to keep tabs on every tiebreaker scenario, by race or by team. Team names are in bold throughout the article for easy skimming.
Tiebreakers by Race
National League Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers as of September 30, 2024. See “Tiebreakers by Team” below for further details.
Wild Card
Two-Way Ties
- If the Braves and Mets are tied, the Braves will claim the higher Wild Card seed and face the Padres in the Wild Card Series. The Braves lead the season series 6-5 with two games remaining (doubleheader on Sept. 30).
Three-Way Ties
- If the Mets and Braves split their doubleheader and the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves are all tied for two Wild Card spots, the Mets and Braves will make the playoffs and the Diamondbacks will be eliminated. The Braves will claim the higher Wild Card seed and face the Padres in the Wild Card Series.
Current Head-to-Head Records of the NL Wild Card Contenders
| TEAM | vs. ARI | vs. ATL | vs. NYM |
| ARI | — | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| ATL | 5-2 | — | 6-5 |
| NYM | 4-3 | 5-6 | — |
American League Tiebreakers
The Royals and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records. However, the Royals won the season series, so they will claim the higher Wild Card spot.
The Royals are the No. 5 seed in the AL. The Tigers are the No. 6 seed.
Tiebreakers by Team
National League Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers as of September 30, 2024. See “Tiebreakers by Race” above for further details.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Lost the season series to the Braves
- Lost the season series to the Mets
The Diamondbacks do not hold the Wild Card tiebreaker over the Braves or Mets.
Atlanta Braves
- Won the season series against the Diamondbacks
- Leading the season series against the Mets (6-5)
The Braves hold the Wild Card tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. The season series between the Braves and Mets is undecided.
New York Mets
- Won the season series with the Diamondbacks
- Losing the season series to the Braves (5-6)
The Mets hold the NL Wild Card tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. The season series between the Mets and Braves is undecided.
American League Tiebreakers
The Royals and Tigers finished with identical 86-76 records. However, the Royals won the season series, so they will claim the higher Wild Card spot.
The Royals are the No. 5 seed in the AL. The Tigers are the No. 6 seed.
Additional Resources
- Head-to-head records for all 30 teams via ESPN.
- Intradivision records via Baseball Reference.
- Tiebreaker procedures via MLB.com.
- Playoff odds via FanGraphs.
Written by
Leo Morgenstern is an editor for Just Baseball and a writer for FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Pitcher…