Top Notes From the San Francisco Giants ZiPS Projections for 2025

With the release of many projections for 2025, we get our first true look at what the San Francisco Giants’ upcoming season could look like, in theory. While this offseason didn’t bring a swarm of exciting moves, there were two notable additions to the roster.

Willy Adames stands out as the only major acquisition with Justin Verlander being a low-risk addition to the rotation. Beyond that, the majority of the Giants’ production is expected to come from familiar faces, with contributors from 2024 expected to repeat the same levels of production.

However, one of the biggest challenges in predicting the Giants’ outlook for this season comes from their young core. A handful of players are still in the early parts of their careers, making it difficult to guess exactly how they will develop. That is where statistical projection systems can step in and provide some clarity.

One of the most widely used models is the ZiPS Projection System, which was created by Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs. According to MLB.com, here’s how it works:

“ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections… no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.”

So, what can we expect from the Giants heading into 2025? Let’s break down some of the key takeaways from the ZiPS projections.

Position Player Projections

San Francisco’s lineup is headlined by productive veterans with a splash of young guys looking to further develop at the big league level.

With the majority of last year’s lineup returning, there is a sense of continuity, but a few younger players looking to establish themselves brings an element of volatility. If this new wave of talent can outperform their projections, they can bring this lineup to a whole new level.

Let’s see what we can expect from this group in 2025.

• Willy Adames sees a dip in production – After putting up a career season in a contract year, ZiPS predicts that Adames will regress in 2025.
  
  After putting up 32 home runs and 112 RBIs, those numbers are expected to fall to 23 HRs and 83 RBIs. Despite this drop, due to a return closer to his former self on defense, Adames is still expected to lead the team in WAR at 4.2

• Jung Hoo Lee shows up in limited games – ZiPS is actually the lowest projection system on Lee, but still predicts a slightly above-average season. In 101 games, he’s expected to hit .280 (.340 career AVG in KBO) with a 108 wRC+ adding up to around 2 WAR.
  
  However, only 7 home runs and 2 stolen bases are predicted for the former KBO star. It would not be a surprise if Lee outperformed these projections and became one of the better center fielders in all of baseball.

• Patrick Bailey’s bat slightly improves, still racks up WAR – Bailey is coming off a year where he posted 4.3 fWAR while having a mere wRC+ of 81. He is expected to be slightly better in 2025, with a wRC+ of 89 and career highs with 10 home runs and a .235 AVG.
  
  Nonetheless, even with a mediocre or below offensive season, due to how impressive the glove is, Bailey is expected to still post 3.5 WAR. If he can outperform these offensive numbers, Bailey can solidify himself as one of the most valuable players in baseball.

• ZiPS is buying the breakouts of Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald – Although these sophomores are expected to see a slight dip in production this year, they are both looking to build on what they did in 2024. ZiPS predicts similar power numbers and an uptick in the RBI department from both.
  
  With Fitzgerald predicted to be the fourth most valuable Giant and Ramos the fifth, it will be interesting to see how they perform in their first full seasons locked into a position for a franchise looking for homegrown, everyday players.

• How much Bryce Eldridge do we see? – While the Giants have stated Eldridge will start the year in the minors, it’s very possible he will force his way to the bigs.
  
  ZiPS predicts a decent rookie campaign from the 20-year-old with 16 home runs and a .243/.303/.401 slash line in 122 games at the big league level. With the defense being poor at 1st base this would accumulate to an even 0 WAR.
  
  While I think 122 games might be a bit high, it will interesting to see how quickly he forces his way up and if his power translates immediately.

• Does David Villar become an everyday player? – David Villar’s projection is definitely one of the more intriguing ones going into the year. He’s seen limited time in San Francisco over the past two seasons, but in 2025, is expected to play 119 games and rack up 1.9 WAR.
  
  He’s expected to be pretty average in most offensive categories with a slightly above-average glove at first base. It will be interesting to see how accurate ZiPS is in this case as they are the highest projection system on Villar, significantly, and with San Francisco’s current first base situation.

Pitcher Projections

The Giants have one of the more interesting pitching situations in all of baseball. While Logan Webb is the undisputed ace, outside of him, there are a lot of question marks. Justin Verlander is 42, Robbie Ray is coming off Tommy John, and Jordan Hicks is still transitioning into a starter.

With that being said, there are also a lot of young guys who are looking to prove themselves and cement their spots as the future of the organization. It will be an interesting season on the mound in San Francisco, with a lot of volatility present throughout the rotation.

Here’s what we can expect from a few of the organization’s arms.

• Logan Webb remains reliable – Logan Webb has cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball with a 2nd place Cy Young finish in 2023 and a 6th place finish this past season.
  
  ZiPS sees Webb putting together another stellar year with a 3.22 ERA in 195.2 innings, for 4.4 WAR. This would be a slight step back in workload for Webb as it would be his first sub-200 inning season since 2022.
  
  Unsurprisingly, he’s expected to do a great job limiting the long ball and free passes with a 0.64 HR/9 and 1.93 BB/9. An interesting note to make about Webb’s projections is that ZiPS believes he’ll put up the best BAPIP clip of his career at .292.

• Does Kyle Harrison Take a Step? – Kyle Harrison put up an overall underwhelming first full year in the MLB by putting up a 4.56 ERA in just under 125 innings. ZiPS projects that he puts up a similar season with 4.21 ERA in 117.7 innings.
  
  While he is expected to see a slight jump in strikeouts, he is also expected to see an elevated walk rate and continue to struggle with keeping the ball in the yard.
  
  While he did deal with injuries in 2024, will we see Harrison take a step and live up to his top prospect pedigree or is this just who he is?

• Robbie Ray is solid…in limited innings – ZiPS likes Robbie Ray in 2025, predicting a sub-4 ERA at 3.91 in only 108.1 innings. While the Giants need more innings than that, they’d probably be pretty happy with a 3.91 clip at this stage in Ray’s career.
  
  One area of concern is an expected HR/9 of 1.41, especially when Oracle Park is your home ballpark. While his strikeout numbers won’t be near his prime numbers, they are expected to be solid.
  
  Surprisingly, ZiPS predicts Ray will limit the walks with a 2.91 BB/9 clip, which is only 2nd to his Cy Young year in 2021.

• How much does Verlander have left? – While he isn’t the caliber of pitcher he was a few years ago, Justin Verlander was the other notable addition of the offseason alongside Willy Adames. Coming off the worst season of his career in which he had a 5.48 ERA, ZiPS likes him to bounce back with a 4.15 ERA in 2025.
  
  However, ZiPS is also the lowest projection system in terms of Verlander’s workload, only having him throwing 117.0 innings. The most concerning aspect of his projections is a K/9 rate of 6.77. It will be interesting to see what the Hall of Famer has to offer in his age 42 season.

• Does Ryan Walker cement himself as an elite reliever? – Ryan Walker is coming off of an outstanding season as a reliever and the Giants are hoping he can continue this type of production. However, ZiPS isn’t as optimistic.
  
  An expected 3.03 ERA in 71.1 innings is still solid, but not as good as the 1.91 ERA in 80 innings we saw in 2024. All projection systems, including ZiPS, predict a slight decline in strikeout, walk, and home run numbers.
  
  With one of the more interesting deliveries in all of baseball, San Francisco fans are hopeful that Walker can outperform these projections and propel himself into the conversation for the top 15 relievers in baseball.

• Carson Whisenhunt contributes in year one – While he isn’t expected to put up elite numbers by any means, ZiPS projects 101.7 innings in 2025. He’s also expected to pitch to the tune of a 4.25 ERA in his rookie campaign.
  
  With the projections for the rest of the San Francisco staff, the organization would gladly take this level of production from their top-ranked prospect arm.
  
  While he had an underwhelming 2024 in Triple-A Sacramento, Whisenhunt can use his otherworldly changeup to help the Giants down the stretch this upcoming season.

• Camilo Doval returns to form… kind of? – It was no secret that Doval had an extremely disappointing season after being an All-Star closer in 2023, which eventually got him optioned to Triple-A Sacramento toward the end of the season.
  
  Doval’s biggest issue in 2024 was his 5.95 BB/9, which made watching him frustrating throughout the entire year. The good news is that, while it’s still high, ZiPS sees that dipping to a 4.43 clip in 65 innings.
  
  This results in an expected 3.46 ERA, which would be a step in the right direction after a ballooned 4.88 ERA in 2024. If Doval can return to his 2023 form, the Giants can have one of the better bullpens in all of baseball, which is important for a team that emphasizes pitching.

Wrapping It Up

Going into the 2025 season, the Giants have an interesting mix of stability, youth, and unpredictability. The lineup is similar to last season, with veterans expected to carry the load and young players looking to carve out their roles in the big leagues.

While ZiPS does expect some regression from newly-signed Willy Adames, it also projects solid-production from young contributors like Patrick Bailey, Heliot Ramos, and Tyler Fitzgerald.

A big question for the lineup will be whether emerging talent, especially Bryce Eldridge, can exceed expectations and contribute for an organization trying to sneak into a Wild Card spot.

On the mound, Logan Webb remains at the top of the rotation with a lot of volatility beyond him. Guys like Verlander and Ray bring experience, but also uncertainty due to age and injuries.

Young southpaws like Kyle Harrison and Carson Whisenhunt are expected to get more opportunities to prove themselves.

The bullpen remains a relative strength and a slight bounce back from Doval and continued success from Walker could determine how dominant the unit can be.

Ultimately, the 2025 campaign looks like it will be defined by a nice balance of established contributors and up-and-coming talent.

While ZiPS gives us a useful roadmap, at the end of the day, they are just projections. It will be up to these guys to determine the fate of this organization in 2025.