Does Signing Michael Lorenzen Complete the Royals’ Rotation?

The Kansas City Royals shocked the baseball world in 2024 with a 30-win turnaround from 2023, breaking their nine-year postseason drought in the process.

They did so on account of a great starting rotation, which ranked second in MLB in ERA, fourth in both FIP and WHIP and sixth in AVG against.

While key pieces like ace Cole Ragans and 2024 AL Cy Young finalist Seth Lugo were guaranteed shoo-ins to be part of that rotation in 2025, there was uncertainty about what the rest of the starting five would look like heading into the offseason.

J.J. Picollo and Kansas City’s front office made sure to temper some of the questions surrounding the starting staff by wasting no time re-signing veteran Michael Wacha to a three-year deal in November. This came on the heels of his third consecutive sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP season in 2024.

However, after the Royals parted with some of their starting depth to improve at both leadoff and second base, by dealing Brady Singer to Cincinnati for Jonathan India, that element of uncertainty in the rotation became prevalent again.

On Monday evening though, Royals fans could sleep a little easier after it was reported that they’d agreed to a one-year deal to bring back veteran right-hander Michael Lorenzen to address some of the questions at the bottom of the rotation left after the Singer deal.

The Lorenzen deal sorts out more than just the bottom of the rotation though, as it finally gives the Royals an established plan for their starting staff in 2025.

What Lorenzen Brings to the Table

With Ragans, Lugo and Wacha at the top, the Royals didn’t need to go all out on the open market to fill their starting rotation.

This makes Lorenzen the ideal candidate to add to the mix in the bottom half, especially given his recent experience at Kauffman Stadium.

Since primarily becoming a starter in 2022, the 33-year-old has been a bill of consistency. In each of the last three seasons, Lorenzen has posted an ERA below 4.50, including a 3.31 ERA last season.

Despite pretty unimpressive underlying metrics, Lorenzen sported a seven-pitch arsenal in 2024, all of which he threw over five percent of the time.

Looking closer at his more primary pitches, two of his three most common deliveries caused hitters real problems last season.

His highest-used pitch, his four-seam fastball, held the opposition to a .155 AVG and .309 SLG, with very respectable expected metrics of a .211 xBA and .406 xSLG, as per Baseball Savant.

Lorenzen’s changeup, his third most utilized offering, serves as a very impressive secondary weapon to his four-seamer. Hitters only managed dismal results against it with a .122 AVG and a .173 SLG.

While 2024 may’ve been his best year as a starter, these two pitches have been consistently plus offerings for Lorenzen to lean on during his relatively smooth transition back to starting.

Michael Lorenzen’s Four-Seam Fastball Results as a Starter (2022-2024)

Michael Lorenzen’s Changeup Results as a Starter (2022-2024)

While Lorenzen doesn’t necessarily have a third offering that stacks up to the results his four-seamer and changeup have seen, the fact he has five additional pitches to throw hitters off with is another additional wrinkle in itself for the opposition to account for.

Respectable surface-level numbers with a deep arsenal make him the ideal arm to fill out the bottom of any major league rotation.

What Is Lorenzen’s Overall Impact on the Royals?

The Royals Now Have a Buffer for Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh

Before Lorenzen, the Royals’ starting rotation was slated to feature Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh to slot in behind the top three.

While both still project to play important roles in Kansas City this season, to have them occupy 40% of the rotation was not the ideal way to replace the loss of Singer.

Bubic has a lot of promise and returned from Tommy John extremely well in a relief role in 2024.

In 30.1 innings of work, the 27-year-old posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, while striking 32.2% of hitters, walking just 4.1% of them and surrendering hard-hit balls at just a 28.6% clip.

His past is as a starter though, and according to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Bubic is expected to compete for a rotation spot in 2025.

The concern here is how Bubic will perform in a starting role once again, as is the concern with anyone stepping back into the rotation after a UCL injury.

Pair that with the fact that his last full season of starting, in 2022, saw him throw to a less-than-ideal 5.58 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 129.0 innings, and the concerns have even more validity to them.

That being said, the Royals taking the chance on Bubic’s stuff is a lot easier to swallow with him as the number five starter than it would be if he were to immediately follow the top half of the staff.

Marsh made 26 appearances (25 starts) in 2024 with varying degrees of success.

He had his months when he looked relatively sharp, like April, May and September, in which he posted ERAs under 4.00. However, he also had months where he looked completely overmatched, like June and July, where his monthly ERA totals rose above 5.00.

From an underlying metrics standpoint, he surrendered hard-hit rates in the 32nd percentile, and sported a K-rate in just the 45th percentile. All of his expected metrics ranked in the 15th percentile or lower (xERA in the 10th percentile, xBA in the 15th percentile, xSLG in the 9th percentile) in 2024.

None of this instills confidence that Marsh can be a regular member of the starting rotation. That being said, with the upside he showed in the months when things were clicking, he makes a perfect candidate to be a swingman or at the very least a depth arm to eat innings in case of injury. The Lorenzen deal makes this a reality.

With Lorenzen taking the four spot, Bubic at the five and Marsh in a sixth starter/swing role, the Royals suddenly look a lot closer to the rotation that carried them so far in 2024.

Lorenzen’s Deal Offers the Royals Flexibility with the Budget

Lorenzen’s one-year, $7 million deal is a great value add for a small-market organization like Kansas City.

When you compare it to the other one-year, $15 million deals much older veterans like Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander have signed this winter, Lorenzen’s deal suddenly constitutes a steal for the Royals.

By allocating so little financially here, it frees the Royals up to spend bigger in other areas of need this winter, such as the outfield or the bullpen.

In addition, this deal opens up several options for Kansas City during the season, to bolster their roster at the trade deadline for example.

The first way is similar to what this deal does this winter, and that’s offer the Royals more budget to add further via trade due to Lorenzen’s low AAV.

The second way this deal offers in-season flexibility is due to Lorenzen’s ability to throw out of the ‘pen.

From 2016 to 2021, Lorenzen made his living out of the bullpen. At his best, he was one of the league’s better late-inning options during his time in Cincinnati.

So, with his extensive background in relief, should Kansas City be in a position to swing a mid-season move to upgrade in the rotation, Lorenzen can easily take his talents to the bullpen. Which again, as it stands right now, is still an area of need for the team.

Concluding Remarks

Lorenzen isn’t the most glamorous of names that was up for grabs on the open market this winter.

He doesn’t have the marketable impact on the franchise that Ragans or Lugo currently have, and his baseline numbers definitely skew more mediocre.

However, the Royals didn’t need another name like that winter with a rotation as top-heavy as theirs.

Lorenzen, a 2023 All-Star, has shown he’s more than capable of being a serviceable bottom-half starter, and better yet, he has done it as a member of this very roster.

The Royals rotation now features a bona fide ace, a reigning Cy Young finalist, a consistent low-to-mid 3.00s ERA arm, a young lefty who just dazzled in the ‘pen, and now a former All-Star veteran coming off his best season as a starter.

That’s a staff worth being excited about.