The Texas Rangers’ Trade Deadline Dilemma

The Texas Rangers’ season has been teetering on the brink of disaster since early May. In what was supposed to be a Bochy every-other-year bounce back for the 2023 champs, the team has struggled to score despite having a lineup filled with sluggers.

Behind expert pitching and fielding, the Rangers have managed to stay within striking distance of an AL wild-card spot. So, what should Chris Young do heading into the MLB trade deadline?

As with any team that has neither put themselves squarely in contention nor played themselves into a certain sell mode, the Rangers could go any direction. The next few weeks will no doubt play a role in the ultimate decision.

Let’s take a look at a few of the different options the Rangers could take and see what Texas will more than likely end up doing.

Stats were taken prior to play on July 22.

The Rangers’ Pitching Needs

The Rangers’ needs heading into the deadline aren’t far off from what they were in the offseason. The only difference is on the pitching side of things.

With the lack of returning pitching this offseason, Chris Young and the front office had to build an entire bullpen. With the luxury tax threshold limiting the team on spending, they were able to put together a group of arms that has done extremely well. Through their first 100 games, the bullpen is fourth in baseball with a 3.30 ERA.

What they couldn’t afford, though, was a lights-out proven closer. And even with the ‘pen playing great this year, there is still a need for that closer to lock down the final three(ish) outs. David Bednar (Pirates), Kyle Finnegan (Nationals), or even a reunion with Emmanuel Clase (Guardians) have been some names circulating the rumor mill.

Jon Gray, who should rejoin the club this week, could become the Rangers’ closer. He is likely to see action in many different roles down the stretch. Plus, Josh Sborz looks like he should be back in a Rangers uniform soon. That is two big arms for the back of the bullpen that could help lock things down for Texas.

Additionally, the Ranges are still optimistic that Tyler Mahle will be able to return to the rotation sometime in August or the first part of September. If that is the case, that would give them the flexibility to move another starter into the bullpen to sure it up even more.

The Rangers’ Offensive Needs

The other two main areas of concern before the season were DH and first base. Adding Joc Pederson and Jake Burger looked like perfect fits. Unfortunately, both players have struggled at the plate and spent significant time on the IL, which is where they both currently reside.

Burger should be rejoining the club soon with Pederson coming back the first part of August. While those aren’t trades, they will be veteran bats that will hopefully have different outcomes when they arrive back on the active roster.

Not only will the Rangers get those two guys back, but they are hoping that Josh Jung will find his groove with Triple-A Round Rock. If he does, that makes three potential big additions to the offense without having to go outside the organization.

So, while a bat is not out of the question as a trade target, there will more than likely need to be one or two traded in order to even make room for a new slugger. Even though the lineup has been vastly underperforming, it is still full of quality veteran hitters. Both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager have been hitting well over the last month plus, too.

Luxury Tax Is the Key

Just like in the offseason, the Rangers’ front office will be operating within a tight budget. Because of the large salaries that the likes of Seager, Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi have, the team has a hefty payroll.

And after exceeding the luxury tax threshold each of the last two seasons, there is a concentrated effort to reset the clock and stay under the bar this year. So, whatever direction the team goes at the deadline, it will be with the self-imposed salary restraints.

There isn’t a ton of room to operate with at this point, so any deals that are made will have this fact in mind. One real possibility is that there could be a trade or two of outbound salary in order to make room for someone coming in. Similar to the Nathaniel Lowe offseason trade to the Nationals.

Adolis García is a name that has been talked about as a possible trade piece to reduce some salary. Others could be just about any number of the bullpen arms that are on one-year deals.

And while not likely, another possibility is that the Rangers could trade either Gray or Mahle. Both will be free agents at the end of the season. Gray is just coming back from his broken throwing hand that he suffered in spring training but should have an outing or two before the deadline.

Mahle, on the other hand, is still on the IL and won’t be back until after the trade deadline. But if a team were willing to gamble that he will be healthy come playoff time, perhaps there is a deal to be made.

Rangers Playoff Chances

After the weekend series win against the American League-leading Detroit Tigers, the Rangers find themselves at 51-50 with 61 games left to play. It feels like 50/50 is kind of the team’s chances of making the playoffs. A coin toss, if you will.

Fangraphs has the odds of Texas making the playoffs at 19.4%, so well under the “could go either way” toss-up. But let’s take a look and see where the team sits in the standings and what kind of pace they will more than likely need to win at in order to get back to October baseball.

Currently, the Rangers are third in the AL West. Not that there is zero chance of catching the Astros, but at this point, one of the wild-card spots is far more realistic.

The expanded playoffs that started in 2022 could be the Rangers’ friend this year. Instead of just fighting for one or two wild-card spots, three are up for grabs.

Texas is 2.5 games out of both the second and third wild-card spots and 4.5 games out of the first wild card. There is also only one team between the Rangers and one of the wild-card spots, but there are another four that are within 2.5 games of them.

Target Number

Over the last three years with expanded playoffs and balanced schedules, in the AL, it took 86 (2022), 89 (2023), and 86 (2024) wins to make the playoffs. For the Rangers to get to 86 wins, they will need to play at a .574 clip over the next 61 games.

What does all of this mean? It means that it is going to be a dog fight to the end to see which teams can make it into the playoffs. With so many teams still within striking distance, there are sure to be some surprises along the way.

Texas has the best pitching and defense in baseball, and the bats are starting to come around. Sleeping on the Rangers might be a bad idea for teams around the league.

The Rangers are hoping to be one of those hot teams down the stretch that gets to play postseason baseball. Because if they do, and have a healthy deGrom and Eovaldi along with Seager leading the offense, there isn’t a team around that will want to face them in October.

Buyers, sellers, and probably a little of both are where the Rangers are likely to end up over the next few weeks. So grab some popcorn and enjoy the ride, because it is sure to be entertaining