Why Couldn’t the Rangers See the Writing on the Wall?

It is really easy to look at decisions in the rearview mirror and deem them as good or bad. But in the moment, things can be a bit more complicated. That certainly appears to be the case for the Texas Rangers and this year’s trade deadline.

With a massive amount of pitching – and quality pitching at that – approaching free agency this offseason the Rangers were setup to be heavy sellers heading into the trade deadline. But instead of moving on from many of their free agent to be players, Texas decided to pretty much stand pat.

GM Chris Young – CY – did pull the trigger on a handful of small deals, but for the most part the team decided to stay the course and see how it played out. Unfortunately, it has not played out well.

The Rangers lost the final two games in July and went 12-15 in August following the trade deadline that came to past on July 30th. Even with a 6-2 start to September, the Rangers are 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with only 18 games left to play.

Barring a miraculous winning streak, the Rangers World Series defense will end before we get into October, and nothing was gained for the future beyond 2024 at the deadline.

Several factors went into the decision to stand their ground and many of them make perfect sense. Yet there are still others that clearly pointed to calling the season what it was and moving forward in the best possible manner.

The Weak AL West Fooled the Rangers

If the Rangers would have been in any other division this year, there is no chance that they would have held on to so many tradeable pieces. It was like a carrot that was just constantly being dangled in front of them and yet still was out of reach.

At the end of June, Texas was 38-46, and yet was only eight games out of first place.

As the defending World Series champions dug deep in July, they managed to get themselves to within 2.5 games of first place and yet they were still under .500 with a 51-52 record after their four-game sweep of the hapless Chicago White Sox on July 25th.

The Astros had started the season so badly that even with their resurgence in June, they were not running away with the division. And the Mariners were just treading water at this point in the season as they couldn’t score enough runs to help out their dominate pitching.

With the AL West wide open, there was a sense of having a chance, and rightly so.

If the Rangers could just turn things around and get hot, they would be able to fight for the division title through the rest of the season.

All Wins are Not Equal

Ok, I fully understand that every win goes in the win column no matter if it is by one run or by a dozen. But when a team like the Ranges, who had been struggling to score runs all season, manages to string together some solid win totals over a few weeks there needs to be a bit of an examination on how those wins are coming.

Texas was 14-9 in July heading into the trade deadline. Of those 14 wins, seven of them were of the one run variety. Obviously, it is better to win by one run than to lose by one run, but these wins can give a team and fan base a false sense of hope.

Rangers fans will remember the 2016 season that found the team going 95-67 before being promptly swept by the Blue Jays in the divisional series. That year Texas only had a +8 run differential and was a remarkable 36-11 in one run contests.

The Rangers Pythagorean W-L for 2016 was 82-80, which was a far cry from their actual record. The following season the Rangers came back to reality and ended the season with a record of 78-84.

Not Scoring Adequate Runs

Offensively the Rangers have struggled all season long. There are many reasons and theories on why this is, but that is a conversation for another day. The key point here is that even with the July surge, Texas was still not scoring runs.

Of the 23 games that the Rangers played in July before the trade deadline, they scored four or fewer runs in 16 of them. They would go on to win half – eight – of those games.

Post trade deadline the Rangers still haven’t scored runs. In those 37 games they have scored 4 or fewer runs in 24 of them. That is not a recipe for success.

Let’s put the Rangers lack of scoring into context within the AL West.

It has been widely noted that the Mariners have had a terrible time scoring runs this season. Well, the Rangers have only plated 15 more runs than Seattle. And while the Texas pitching staff has done a formidable job, they aren’t close to the Mariners arms.

For anyone wondering, the A’s have only scored 11 fewer runs than the Rangers this season. Houston leads the division with 644 runs, which is 51 more than Texas.

2023 World Series Colored Glasses

When a team wins a championship, they enjoy it and then look to move forward. When the Rangers reported to Suprise, AZ for Spring Training they were saying all of the right things. The championship title was fantastic, but it didn’t carry any weight heading into the new 2024 season.

And while that is true, the fact that the team did have the ultimate success in 2023 most definitely had an impact on their approach to the trade deadline.

By limping into the playoffs last year and then being able to turn things completely around to dominate the postseason probably led to an unrealistic belief in them being able to do something similar this year.

The biggest issue with that thought process this season, is that the team was going to have to maintain such a high level of play for over two full months as opposed to a postseason run.

Baseball is a game that is tough for teams to switch who they are on a dime and maintain that new standard for a long period of time.

If the push needed to be for a few weeks or even a month, that would have been one thing. But when the change needed to be made and sustained for three months, that is another.

Weak Farm System Should Have Won Out

Prospects are just that, prospects. They aren’t big leaguers and unfortunately most don’t live up to the hype that they had at one point in their lives. It is not a good recipe for success to constantly focus on the farm system and ignore the big-league club.

But it is also not prudent to ignore a farm system, especially one that is somewhat depleted.

After graduating both Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter to the majors, the Rangers overall farm system took a big hit. There are still tons of quality guys within its ranks, including one Kumar Rocker who will likely find his way into the 2025 rotation.

The fact of the matter is that the organization sure could have used some more pieces to add to the farm. Some of these pieces wouldn’t have worked out, but others would have either for the Rangers or as future trade pieces.

Part of keeping a good farm system isn’t just for the team’s own consumption, but perhaps just as importantly to be used for trades for big leaguers. The Rangers will look to get back to the postseason in 2025.

Acquiring some big-league talent either this offseason or during the season next year might need to come via trade. Those additional prospects sure would come in handy when negotiating these deals.

GM Chris Young was Clearly in a Tough Spot

It is easy to say that CY zigged when he should have zagged at the deadline. There was little positive with how the team was actually performing even though they had put together a solid July.

But to be only 3.5 games out of first place in the division, be the defending World Series champs, and not to at minimum stand their ground would have quite honestly been worse. CY was caught in a nightmare scenario. The dreaded middle of the road team.

In reality it is usually best to buy or sell, and not to just stay where you are. There were a few small moves made, but none of them were going to push the Rangers forward or ultimately cash in on their impending free agents.

The Rangers did have some key guys like Josh Jung that were nearing their return from the IL. But ultimately even that wasn’t enough to spark this lackluster 2024 Rangers offense.

There is little doubt that the Rangers clubhouse appreciated CY believing in them to be able to turn things around. Fans are probably mixed on their reaction as they tend to see things as more black and white instead of the gray that sports are usually painted with.

Ultimately, this season will go down as a disappointment for the Texas Rangers. As the team watches multiple pitchers hit the free agent market at the end of the season, the frustration will likely build a bit more.

And yet for the optimist, this Rangers team has quite a solid core that can find themselves right back in the thick of things next season. Texas will surely hold onto the mantra “there is always next year” as they ride into the offseason.

With manager Bruce Bochy’s run of every other year World Series titles that he had with the Giants, next year just might be another magical season that ends up with rings and the Commissioners Trophy.