Is 2025 the Phillies’ Last Shot at a Ring With This Core?

With overactive rivals and a handful of their stars hitting free agency next winter, the Phillies are under immense pressure to win in the upcoming season.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 25: Pitcher Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies is congratulated by catcher J.T. Realmuto #10 after pitching a complete game shutout as the Phillies defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 at Citizens Bank Park on September 25, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 25: Pitcher Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies is congratulated by catcher J.T. Realmuto #10 after pitching a complete game shutout as the Phillies defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 at Citizens Bank Park on September 25, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

It’s not every day that you see a 95-win team look to shake things up and trade away some of their stars. Yet, the Philadelphia Phillies are in this exact self-imposed predicament heading into the 2025 campaign.

Just a handful of months after winning the National League East for the first time since the 2011 season (!), the Phillies at least entertained the idea of moving players like Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Alec Bohm. Each of this trio provides value in their own way, but none were quite the game-changing, needle-movers the club needed them to be in 2024.

To date, none of their top players have been traded, but the organization suffered two major losses in the form of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals, respectively.

Rivals Ramping Up the Pressure

Ahead of the 2025 campaign, the pressure is ramping up as the Atlanta Braves prepare to welcome back a ton of injured stars and the New York Mets now have the one of the world’s best baseball players on their roster.

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We’ve talked at length about the Braves sitting on their hands, but more than anything it seems that their biggest offseason “additions” will be full seasons from Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Spencer Strider. Bringing Jurickson Profar into the fold isn’t going to hurt matters either.

Juan Soto and his 15-year contract is franchise-altering, and the Mets are going to be so much better with him on hand. The club also acquired Jose Siri from the Rays and signed a slew of players including Jesse Winker, Griffin Canning, Ryne Stanek, Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea.

Not all of these players are going to be All-Star candidates, but the Soto, Manaea, and Minter deals in particular have the chance to pay off big-time for the Metropolitans.

Of the six division winners from this past season, the Phillies feel like the team that may be in the most danger when it comes to going back-to-back in 2025. When healthy, the Braves have the best team in the division, but 2024 showed that the whole “health” thing really does determine whether they take the division or not.

It seems that the Phillies are going to need to hope that their own additions, as well as some luck with their rivals coming across hard times, will be enough to help them get perhaps one last shot at a World Series with this core in place.

Recapping the Phillies’ Moves

Max Kepler and his one-year contract is the biggest move the Phillies have made on the position-player side. The 32-year-old is coming off of the worst performance of his career in 2024, but there’s a pair of nagging injuries he fought through last year that are to blame for that. When healthy, he’s shown consistently that he can be a solid option, so the Phillies may make out like bandits if he can stay on the field.

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On the pitching side of things, the club signed both Jordan Romano and Joe Ross to one-year contracts, but the “big fish” of the offseason was the trade for Jesus Luzardo. We don’t often see trades of this magnitude go down between division rivals, but the Miami Marlins couldn’t be deeper into their rebuild and the Phillies needed one more starter.

Luzardo, 27, is somehow projected to only be the Phillies’ No. 5 starter, but it makes more sense once you realize that he’s going to be pitching alongside Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez. The addition of Luzardo makes the Phillies’ rotation one of the very best in baseball.

Of course, the only issue here is that he’s going to need to prove he can stay healthy for a full year. Since debuting back in 2019, Luzardo has made 32 or more starts just one time, and it resulted in easily the best season for him yet, when he posted a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP and 4.0 bWAR in 32 starts in 2023.

Free Agency Could Radically Change the Roster

In some ways, the 2025 season is the Phillies’ last chance to capitalize on their current core. This is where the majority of the pressure they currently face stems from.

Expiring contracts are all over the roster, and it’s going to be difficult to replace the significant amount of talent that’ll be coming off the books.

Barring extensions, the Phillies have eight pending free agents. Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm fall under this umbrella, but they’re the only ones with team options for the 2026 season. Strahm’s in particular automatically vests if he pitches 60 innings in the upcoming season.

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Otherwise, Kepler, Ross, and Romano will be returning to the open market, but the biggest losses will be in the form of much more notable names leaving.

J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Scwharber, and Ranger Suarez are all also set to hit free agency. Realmuto and Schwarber are both getting up there in age, but they both were worth no less than 3.0 bWAR this past year. Aging or not, they’re still playing at above-average levels as they go through their 30s.

Schwarber, 32 in March, is well known as one of the game’s top power threats. He’s an on-base machine who regularly hits around 40 home runs with 100 or so runs driven in. He’s already hit 131 home runs in just three seasons on the Phillies and has somehow settled in to his role as the club’s primary leadoff hitter.

Suarez, 29, made the first All-Star Game of his career in 2024 and finished the season going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 117 ERA+. He’s a client of Scott Boras, so Phillies fans are likely already facing their final days with him in their club’s rotation. Suarez is going to hit free agency and seek out the highest bidder instead of signing an extension, which is typically how Boras clients operate.

Financial Flexibility

Having the proverbial band break up may not necessarily be the end of the world for the Phillies. Armed with one of the smartest and most aggressive (at the right times) front offices in the game, there’s a very good chance that the club will use the massive amount of money they’ll have freed up wisely.

Between Realmuto, Schwarber, Kepler, Romano, Ross and Suarez, the organization will have roughly $75 million coming off the books – with Strahm and Alvarado’s team options not included in there. That’s no small sum.

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Of course, there’s a chance multiple pending free agents are brought back. Dave Dombrowski and Co. have already seen what this core, as currently constructed, is capable of doing when they’re all playing well. Letting someone like Schwarber, one of the game’s most prolific power hitters; or Suarez, one of their many ace-caliber arms, walk in free agency is a significant gamble, but not a guarantee to even happen in the first place.

Looking ahead, some of the best free agents in the 2025-26 offseason will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, Josh Naylor, Marcell Ozuna, Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Devin Williams, and Ryan Helsley. There won’t be any shortage of talent next winter, so the Phillies will have as good a chance as any to capitalize on the opportunity.

Closing Thoughts

The Phillies are well aware of what their current roster can do when everybody’s firing on all cylinders. Last year, they fell short and are feeling the need to shake things up. Whether they do so or not remains to be seen, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve likely got one more shot with this exact team before a handful of beloved players depart via the open market.