Which Winning Streak Are We Buying: Cardinals or Twins?
Two Central division teams are on absolute fire right now.
Stats and standings taken prior to play on May 14.
Two of the hottest teams in baseball reside in the center of the country. They just happen to belong to different leagues.
In the AL Central, the 21-20 Minnesota Twins have shaken off a slow start to climb back over .500. They currently sport an eight-game winning streak that is the second longest in MLB at the moment.
The longest belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals, winners of nine straight. They, too, started off slow but are now 23-19 and second in the NL Central behind the division-leading Cubs.
The two teams nearly finished with the same record last season, though they got there in opposite ways. The Twins (82-80), started the season well and were in second place as late as August 25 before tanking in September and missing the playoffs completely.
The Cardinals (83-79), coming off an awful 2023 season, took until the summer to heat up. They ultimately had their best month of the season in September, though it wasn’t enough to bring them back to the postseason.
Early on, both teams are exceeding expectations that most had for them coming into 2025. So are we buying either of these winning streaks, and if so, which team’s is real?
Are We buying the Twins’ Recent Winning Streak?
The Twins were a good offensive team last season, but they were off to a slow start before their winning streak. Through May 2, Minnesota was 22nd in the league at just 3.84 runs per game.
During their winning streak, they’ve upped that average to an even five runs per game. Over the full season, that rate would rank fifth in MLB.
The Twins have seven regular position players who have a wRC+ of 100 or higher, meaning they have several players putting up average offensive performances at minimum. That’s more than a lot of teams can say.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s pitching so far has been elite. Their team ERA of 3.32 is fifth lowest in all of baseball (and amazingly only third lowest in their own division!).
Both pitching units are responsible for the team’s success. Twins starters are fifth in MLB with a combined 3.36 ERA while relievers are sixth at 3.27. Excellent individual performances appear up and down the staff.
The Twins’ run differential of +19 gives them an expected win-loss record of 23-18 on the season. Maybe that means their performance thus far isn’t a mirage.
Are We Buying the Cardinals’ Recent Winning Streak?
While the Twins were struggling offensively to start the year, the Cardinals were doing fine. Through May 2, St. Louis was sitting 11th in MLB in run production at 4.59 runs per game.
They’ve seen a more mild increase in production, up to 5.22 rpg, during their own winning streak. That brings their season average up just a tick to 4.69 rpg, still 11th in MLB.
Individually, the Cardinals also have several players at a 100 wRC+ or above, though only one of them who has played at least 30 games, Brendan Donovan, has an OPS over .800. The Twins at least have a pair (Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader).
On the pitching side, St. Louis has been more middle of the road. Their 3.81 team ERA places them 13th in MLB and seventh in the National League.
Starters have generally performed pretty well for the Cardinals as their 3.70 ERA ranks 10th in MLB. Their relievers are farther behind at 17th with a 3.97 ERA.
It’s hard to say what the ceiling for the Cardinals pitching staff actually is. While they’ve been alright at limiting base runners with a 1.23 WHIP that ties for 10th in MLB, the staff is far from dominating hitters by way of the strikeout, as they’re tied for fourth least with 298.
So which team’s stock is worth buying, the one with the below-average offense and above-average pitching, or the one slightly above average in both areas?
We’re going to go with the Twins here. Teams with elite pitching often tend to push themselves into contention, and Minnesota has done just that. They also appear to have the talent to put up a quality offense, even if it hasn’t regularly happened just yet.
That’s not to say that the Cardinals might not end up looking better than expected this year. There was always the chance that their young core would take a step forward this year, and that might just be what’s happening as we speak.
For now, though, the Twins are the ones that feel worth buying into.
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Matt Carroll is a writer for Just Baseball and former site expert at Reviewing the Brew. He studied journalism at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and currently…