We profited last night. I have to remember that’s a good thing because I almost punched a hole in my TV watching the Giants blow a 5-1 lead in the eighth inning at 1 a.m. EST. I heard on the Giants postgame that they were 50-3 when leading after seven innings. Tyler Rogers had a 2.78 ERA before that inning, where he allowed six hits in a row, four runs, without recording an out to the offense with the lowest batting average in baseball. We lost Giants ML (+130) on that.

We did win with the Diamondbacks, as they won 12-2 as a +115 underdog. Five of the last six days have been profitable, let’s do it again. No underdogs today, but I do have a total I really like.

2024 Record: 105-109 (-7.64 U)

St Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray (3.91 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (4.47 ERA)

Before discussing the matchup, let’s look at the weather. When Target Field gets hot, you want to play overs. It’s simple: when the temperature is above 76 degrees, and the total is between 7 and 8.5, the over is 98-75-4 (56.6%) (7.3% ROI). If you blindly bet overs in this spot, you’d be long-term profitable.

That system is 10-5 this season with a 27% ROI. I’d be playing this over even if it wasn’t hot, but that does help our case today.

Yesterday’s game ended 6-1. The Cardinals had no trouble putting runs up on the board, but the Twins had a weirdly lousy day against a pitcher they’d never seen before. That can happen to any team, and Pallante is a good pitcher. Pallante also dominates left-handed bats, which the Twins lineup is filled with. Today, they face a former teammate who has problems against lefties.

Sonny Gray has a specific problem we target when betting on the Twins offense. We want pitchers who struggle against left-handed bats. The Twins load up their lineup with powerful lefties, and their righties (Royce Lewis) can hit anybody. Gray fits that mold, supporting a .778 OPS against left-handed bats this season compared to a .599 OPS against righties.

Gray has also been terrible on the road this season, rocking a 5.43 ERA compared to a 2.72 ERA at home. He’s given up 14 home runs on the road, which is a problem for Gray. Today, he faces the second-best offense by wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching with the fifth-highest SLG and ISO. They bring power to matchups like these, and we should see it again today.

On the flip side, we have Pablo Lopez. His ERA predictors have him as a mid-3s ERA pitcher this year, and I agree, but that doesn’t mean he pitches like one today. He doesn’t like pitching at Target Field either, rocking a 4.95 ERA this season and a 4.21 ERA last season. I understand why this place is so good for hitting in the summer months.

He faces a Cardinals lineup that ranks as the ninth-best road offense against righties in the league this season by wRC+. They have a balanced attack of lefties and righties, and Pablo doesn’t have exaggerated splits in either direction. The Cardinals have a 106 wRC+ over the last two weeks against righties, which places them close to the top ten in that span. They are a good, not great, offense that can help us get there today.

I have another wild trend. The over has hit in 27 of the last 39 games the Twins have been the favorite. The Twins are sizeable favorites today against the Cardinals ace, where they have an excellent matchup and familiarity, so I expect Gray to struggle. I was looking at the Twins team total, but I don’t want to exclude an above-average offense in great weather for hitting.

I don’t trust either bullpen right now. The Twins’ bullpen hasn’t been very good over the past two months, ranking 24th in bullpen ERA. The Cardinals’ bullpen hasn’t been much better, ranking 14th in that span. They are also not in a good rest spot, as all of their high-leverage relievers will be pitching in their third game in the last four days.

All in all, this total is too low. Yesterday’s game went under the total, but I doubt this one does. Take this to 8 (+100).

The Pick: Cardinals vs. Twins Over 7.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.